Christian | Family Man | PhD, Cornell University | Author of Resilient Citizens | Localism | Homesteading | Army (views my own not DoD)

Washington State
Feeling anxious, stressed, or out of control? It doesn't have to be that way. Resilience is a mindset. Learn how others have seized their agency and how you can not just live - but thrive. My new book is now available Resilient Citizens: The People, Perils, and Politics of Modern Preparedness. Find out more at resilientcitizens.com From war zones to wildfires, pandemics to power outages, the threats we face today seem bigger, scarier, and more unrelenting than ever before. Why, then, does society take a critical view of those who prepare for the worst while hoping for the best? Why do so many people write them off as crazy, conspiracy-minded “doomsday preppers”? In Resilient Citizens, Army officer and disaster expert Dr. Chris Ellis challenges the myths, dismisses the fearmongering, and takes a much-needed, long-overdue scholarly look not just at prepper culture in America, but our overall social, physical, intellectual, emotional, and spiritual health. This isn’t another doomsday prepper guide or government-endorsed emergency brochure. It’s a deep dive into the people, perils, and politics of preparedness—from ranchers in the Rockies to policymakers globally—and a call to action for those who refuse to outsource their safety to luck or bureaucracy. Unpacking thousands of hours of research, Dr. Ellis will help you— § Learn the traits and strategies of those best equipped to survive and thrive amid disaster. § Understand the psychological roadblocks that keep people stuck in denial or helplessness. § Discover how different belief systems, subcultures, and nations approach long-term resilience. § Debunk popular myths about “preppers” and discover the truth behind America’s growing culture of preparedness. § Examine the historical and political roots of America’s preparedness paradox. § Reveal the number one resilience item every household must own. Whether you’re a concerned parent, a curious skeptic, or a seasoned survivalist, Resilient Citizens will challenge your assumptions and inspire you to think bigger, prepare smarter, and ensure your own survival in a chaotic world and uncertain future.
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You can just do things. Fight local, win local.
Lovely photos from the twice annual "Murtreff" in Norway where architects, masons and government officials can meet to learn about traditional masonry techniques. From Roman arches to. Gustavino Vaulting.
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You can look at these charts like a hurricane forecast. Not all disasters telegraph where things are going. Bonds do. Prepare accordingly.
This is what a global bond market crisis looks like.
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Dr. Chris Ellis retweeted
Fintwit is rife with doomers and people with massive followings who do nothing but promote everything negatively. If you're sick of this stuff, and want to listen to a legitimate expert who advises people at the top echelons of national security on matters of disaster preparedness, resilience, etc, follow @Prep4Disasters and listen to his interview with @DanielaCambone piped.video/watch?v=W9ME5fYO…
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Lots of hot takes on AI. @JOEBOTxyz looks at this philosophically with a dash of religion.
THE RACE TO "PACE AI" IS A RUSE Reliable sources tell me Anthropic and OpenAI are working with the Department of Justice to hash out a coordinated "pacing the frontier" plan. The legal issue is that cross-company coordination might break antitrust rules—even a voluntary "pacing" agreement that doesn't affect competitors. Such "pacing" would actually buy time for stragglers like xAI and Meta to catch up. Frontier "pacing"— if voluntary—wouldn't impact the second-rate open source models at all. Much of this "pacing" effort is in response to the viral AI Doom freak-out that started building with the Hugging Face hack and exploded with that pasty Anthropic "whistleblower" saying what everyone paying attention already knew: The frontier AI execs believe their baby golems could one day come alive like some mutant brood in a subterranean lab, break containment, and launch an End of the World party that'd leave nothing but A-bomb craters and a surviving handful of human-robot symbiotes swimming in semi-animate oceans of nano swarm gray goo. Well, that's what I envision every time Elon Musk says "radical abundance" anyway. If you have a better doom dream, let's hear it. — The current "pacing the frontier" effort has continuity with another ongoing DoJ deal going back to July. That deal would allow frontier companies—including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google—to form an industry-led standards body. Adherence to these standards would be voluntary. I have no doubt any of these companies would secure regulatory capture if they could, especially Anthropic. Be that as it may, all these smooth-brained "COORDINATED ASTROTURFED PSY OP" conspiracy theories about "ONE WORLD EFFECTIVE ALTRUISM REGULATORY CAPTURE" triggered by "CYBERATTACK FALSE FLAGS" unleashed by the Antichrist are missing one important element: What is actually happening at the DOJ right now: the avoidance of hard regulation. Even with a "pacing" plan in place, there's every reason to believe the top dawgs at Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, xAI, and various upstarts—all given cover by the coordinated astroturfed e/acc psy op—will continue their shared mission to build digital God in a server rack. Every ambitious man wants to be first. Even those "pacing" their maniacal mission to build God. — For that philosophical reason alone, it's prudent to view every frontier AI exec as you would a pagan priest whose gods are hostile to your bloodline. Don't trust their motives. Never support their efforts. Disregard their cheerleaders and mouthpieces. Block them at every turn. Employ any legal way to bring them to heel. Force transparency. Enforce accountability for harms. Impose outside evaluators. Criminalize involuntary data collection and surveillance. Ban their worst products at the state level. Ban the big ones on the federal level. Ban AI in public classrooms. Ban suicide bots for kids. Ban goonbots for incels. Ban AI slop from all platforms. Halt mass surveillance. Ban lethal autonomous weapons. Halt the Greater Replacement. Ban artificial superintelligence. If ASI is not possible to build—and if a nuanced ban wouldn't affect your struggling start-up or your crappy open source AI running on basement GPUs—then why do you care if imaginary superintelligence is banned? On the other hand... If ASI is actually possible, why do you want to see it built? Don't we have enough infernal gods without creating a new one who can conduct cyberattacks and drone strikes? Ban it. Ban any AI development and the deployment of any AI that decreases quality of life, reduces cognitive ability, or is designed to replace meaningful work. Or, considering the difficulty of passing and enforcing such laws in the current political climate, just refuse to use their bots or buy into their bullshit propaganda. Or maybe you'd rather carry water for these tech-adled megalomaniacs. You're free to parrot their paranoid, hypocritical, and obviously "coordinated astroturfed psy ops" all you want. Outsource your mind. Love the clanker. Take the trode. It's a free country. For now.
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Prediction: You are going to hear senior politicians in various countries speak more about national resilience in the future. A lot more.
The government is right to be thinking seriously about resilience and growth, because the pressures now building are significant. We should not underestimate what is happening across the world right now. There is a convergence of issues that will have global ramifications for some time to come. • Strait of Hormuz challenged = trade reduced to a trickle • Red Sea threat increasing = trade severely impacted • Pipelines disrupted = alternative routes limited • Conflict affecting the Black Sea = major grain corridor severely impacted Together, these routes carry a significant proportion of the world’s oil, gas, fertiliser and grain. The significance is not simply that each is under pressure. It is that these pressures compound one another. Why does that matter? Tighter oil and gas supplies mean higher energy costs. But the impact does not stop at the pump or the household energy bill. Energy feeds into transport, freight, manufacturing and the cost of producing almost everything else. Fertiliser is part of the same chain. Ammonia is a critical input in nitrogen fertiliser. When its movement is disrupted, supply tightens and costs rise. If that pressure persists into planting seasons, farmers face higher input costs and greater pressure on future yields. At the same time, continued disruption in the Black Sea constrains one of the world’s most important grain-export corridors. Russia and Ukraine together account for around a third of global wheat trade. Less reliable supply means greater pressure on global food prices. These are not separate shocks. Energy affects fertiliser. Fertiliser affects food production. Energy and conflict affect shipping and freight. All of them ultimately feed through into the cost of the goods, food and energy people rely on every day. That is why the cost-of-living implications matter — but there is a wider lesson too. We cannot think about foreign policy, national security, energy security, food security and domestic economic policy as separate silos. They are interconnected parts of the same system. That system is national resilience: our ability to absorb shocks abroad without allowing them to become crises at home. It is going to be a tricky 12 months. That’s why I’m confident our Labour Government will continue to do what it takes to make our country more resilient, protect working families across the UK and face these challenges together.
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There is plenty of ink about how China is beating the US in the AI race and several other tech markers. But when it comes to central bank and household gold purchases, it's mostly crickets. Why is the American populace not told to compete with China via sound money? zerohedge.com/precious-metal…
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Dr. Chris Ellis retweeted
I reread this every year. I cry like a baby every year. Todd Beamer died a father, husband, and hero. Todd: Hello… Operator… listen to me. I can’t speak very loud. This is an emergency. I’m a passenger on a United flight to San Francisco. Our plane has been hijacked. Lisa: I understand. Can they see you? Todd: No. There are three that we know of. They have knives — razor knives, like box cutters. Someone announced from the cockpit there was a bomb. It sounded fake. Lisa: Your name?Todd: Todd Beamer. United Flight 93.Todd: They killed one passenger in first class. They forced most of us back. Fourteen of us here. Five flight attendants. The guy with the bomb ordered us to sit on the floor. Lisa: Are you okay? Todd: We’re going down… wait. No. We’re leveling off. We changed directions. We’re flying east again. Todd: A guy named Jeremy called his wife. She told him two planes hit the World Trade Center. Lisa, is that true? Lisa: I have to tell you the truth. It’s very bad. Both towers are gone. A third plane hit the Pentagon. Our country is under attack. I’m afraid your plane may be part of their plan. Todd: Oh God. Lisa, will you do something for me? Call my wife and my kids. Promise me you’ll call. Lisa: I promise. Todd: Our home number is… You have the same name as my wife. Lisa. We’ve been married ten years. She’s pregnant with our third child. Tell her I love her. I’ll always love her. We have two boys — David, he’s 3, and Andrew, he’s 1. Tell them their daddy loves them and he is so proud of them. The baby is due January 12th. I saw an ultrasound. We still don’t know if it’s a girl or a boy. Lisa: I’ll tell them. I promise, Todd.(Lisa patches in the FBI.) Agent: Todd, your plane is on a course for Washington. Best guess is the White House or the Capitol. Todd: I understand. I’ll be back. Todd: Everyone knows this isn’t a normal hijacking. We have decided we will not be pawns in their plot. Lisa: What are you going to do? Todd: Four of us are going to rush the one with the bomb. Then the cockpit. A stewardess is getting boiling water. We’ll take them out. Todd: Would you pray with me?They pray the Lord’s Prayer. Then: Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil, for thou art with me. Todd: God help me. Jesus help me.Are you guys ready? Let’s Roll.
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High tech societies can bring about wonderful innovation, but are very fragile to near absolute ruin.
High-Altitude Nuclear Explosion (HANE) in LEO: A Self-Destructive Cascade A Senior Defense Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council presents a vivid simulation to the U.S. Space Force, exposing the catastrophic fallout of a LEO nuclear burst on orbital infrastructure: • Immediate Impact: The prompt radiation from a High-Altitude Nuclear Explosion (HANE) instantly destroys roughly 20% of all active LEO satellites. • Artificial Radiation Belt: Within 12 hours, a uniform radiation belt forms, exposing passing spacecraft to persistent, destructive doses. • Total LEO Blackout: Within 2 to 3 weeks, 100% of satellites in Low Earth Orbit are rendered non-operational. • Kessler Cascade Triggered: Dead satellites lose collision-avoidance capability, sparking orbital impacts. The dispersing debris drives secondary collisions, threatening a full Kessler Syndrome. • Mega-Constellation Hazard: High-density debris concentrates around the 550 km altitude shell—directly threatening LEO mega-constellations like Starlink. A HANE strike is an indiscriminate weapon of mass destruction that permanently denies orbital access to all spacefaring nations.source:piped.video/watch?v=Yjq5ItUk…
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Dr. Chris Ellis retweeted
So many of you out there wishing your life away... I wish I could do X but I have to do Y... Sounds like a choice. Make the decision to do it, now. I wished I had a farm. I wished I had a store. I have a farm and I have a store. I kept the day job because that funds the start up. It is hard. Some days I feel overwhelmed. Sometimes I wish I had less to do. But at the end of the day, I got what I wanted because I made the choice.
The danger is in thinking that your real life will begin when your circumstances change, when you exit Breezewood or the 4HL job or any other perceived necessary prerequisite. Meanwhile your life is passing you by minute by minute and it is real and it is fleeting.
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This is big.
BREAKING: Japan's 10Y Bond Yield officially rises above 3.00% for the first time since 1996. The move comes just hours after reports that US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed. We are witnessing history and most people don't even realize it.
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We’ve been discussing this possibility since March. Systems are adaptive, but this is a lot of headwind.
BREAKING: JPMorgan warns a large-scale global food supply crisis could hit within the next year, forecasting global food inflation to nearly double from 2.8% now to 5% by early 2027, per JPMorgan Global Research. The direct driver is fertilizer, 1/3 of the world's nitrogen fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has kept shut since February. Unlike oil, there’s no strategic reserve for fertilizer and nothing to release. Nitrogen fertilizer goes into about half of all crops grown globally.
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Dr. Chris Ellis retweeted
#gold The Trump administration has left a trail of crumbs regarding gold’s new status as a geopolitical tool as well as a weapon. Those crumbs are: 1) The President personally designating gold as a “critical mineral” in Executive Order 14241, “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production.” 2) The United States Geological Survey (USGS) subsequently did not add gold to its own critical minerals list, not because gold is not critical to national security, but because it did not clear the narrow statutory test that list uses, one built around import reliance. The U.S. does not rely on foreign nations for gold production. 3) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offhandedly commenting that the U.S. dollar used to be backed by gold during an interview with Fox News. 4) In the same interview, the Treasury Secretary added that the U.S. has performed an audit of its gold holdings at Fort Knox, that all the gold is accounted for, and that at market value it is worth over $1 trillion, the largest gold holdings in the world. 5) On Monday, during a press conference pertaining to sanctions on Iran, the Treasury Secretary formally classified gold as a sanctionable strategic asset class, in the same breath as crypto and aviation. Line those five up and a pattern emerges that goes well beyond “gold is a good hedge.”
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Dr. Chris Ellis retweeted
This image helps explain what happened along the Nepal–Tibet border. According to reports, a magnitude 4.4 earthquake on the Tibetan side triggered a massive ice avalanche, which then led to the flash flooding of the Bhotekoshi River in Nepal. Around 1,000 people are missing, and many have been killed.
Community note
Image is AI-generated and has China/Nepal labels reversed. USGS later clarified there was no earthquake — the M4.4 signal was produced by the glacial collapse and debris flow itself (now listed as M5.2 landslide). earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ev… bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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Good Lord, that’s an intense flood event.
🇳🇵It's like a scene from a disaster movie... that just keeps getting worse Entire buildings swallowed up in Trishuli Bazaar, Nepal Our prayers are with all those affected. 🙏 Writers: Daniyal, Ian
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Dr. Chris Ellis retweeted
This seems like a small thing, but I believe it’s not. Zoomers cannot keep their hunting rifles or shotguns in the dorms. So many miss hunting seasons if they’re far from home and can’t swing by home or a buddy’s house before the weekend to pick it up. Likewise if they want to harvest and dress seasonal wild caught game, they have nowhere to do that. “Zoomers are weird, they’re always on their phones” …yeah because they’re banned from everything we could do when we were kids by busy body administrators. Every hunting and fishing group should be fighting to fix this problem because it transcends all American regions. With elk season on the way, my students are already making arrangements, so I have a little work around for this for my students, but there are many who don’t have any options to continue to hunt while in school. State agencies R3 coordinator should also be solving this as your license sale dip among 18-24 years olds is probably substantial.
JUST IN: Cornell University bans students from processing wild game in dorm kitchens after two students butchered a bear to make “black bear pastrami.”
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Dr. Chris Ellis retweeted
Update: This "Super El Niño" will be perhaps the strongest in 500 to 1000 years, and could legitimately be the most extreme global weather or climate event experienced by humanity since the invention of the printing press. Only more extreme situation is a volcanic winter.
The upcoming "mega El Niño" could be the strongest since the 1877 event that wiped out 4% of the Earth's population due to heat waves, drought and pestilence. Scientists watching every weather model update are getting "heart palpitations" ❤️
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We need to see more of this, much more. Not everything needs to be powered by AI. Simple sometimes is best.
Ursa Ag recently set shockwaves in motion by marketing a line of tractors with no onboard computers at all. Tractors these days are fragile, overpriced monstrosities in which everything is done by computer. They break down constantly because of excessive complexity, and only authorized repair firms are allowed to fix them, at wildly inflated prices and with long delays. Ursa Ag’s tractors are on the other end of the spectrum. They’re simple, sturdy, easy to repair, and cost a modest fraction of what the big boys are charging. Unsurprisingly, the demand is so high that they’re scrambling to expand production lines, because what they offer is what farmers actually want. It’s also the kind of tractor that was standard on North American farms in 1970 or so. Once again, somebody pushed the rewind button on progress, and the people most directly affected by it couldn’t be happier.
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Heroism, pure and simple. Surf like this, it is far more powerful than you think. The water hits with the force of a small car (the lifeguard prepares for this at the 11 second mark) and can roll you. Add in the white foam, and spatial orientation can quickly disappear. When the waves retreat, it takes major leg and core strength to resist being torn off your feet and pulled back out to sea. This young man had to pull his own body weight and that of the victim. Well done young man.
كان المصور سكوت يقوم بتصوير شاطى سيبرايت في كاليفورنيا عندما لاحظ رأس شخص يظهر ويختفي وسط الامواج العنيفة فسارع الى ابلاغ احد المنقذين اتضح انه صبي بعمر 10 سنوات كان يركب الامواج على اللوح، قام المنقذ بالامساك به على الرغم من قوة وشدة الامواج الا انه تشبث به بقوه حاول البعض مساعدته لكن الامواج اسقطتهم فتراجعوا من الخوف لكن المنقذ استمر حتى انقذ الصبي الاكثر اثارة في الموضوع ان المنقذ كان في موسمه الاول فقط من العمل
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