Given the importance of shrink for investing in retailers in a time when theft by organized crime rings is increasingly normalized with no real consequences, how soon until we start seeing expert network calls with the organized crime rings? “Going to start targeting retailer X”

Demystifying the Modern Acquirers $Stripe $ADYEN $PYPL Braintree in charts: Volume & Growth: Braintree growing the fastest, while $Stripe & $ADYEN are settling in the 20% range Together they process $2T globally in payments (a 50%+ CAGR since 2020). They've claimed ~30% of US eComm & ~20% globally. $Stripe felt the growth pinch first in 2022, slowing to ~25% YoY. $ADYEN's growth halved to 23% in 1H23 from 49% in FY22. Braintree still riding high on travel recovery & market share boosts - it has been VERY aggressive on pricing, especially on $PYPL button. Net Revenue & EBITDA Margin: $Stripe the highest yield, but $Adyen is the most profitable (vs. $Stripe "barely profitable"). Yields: $Stripe leads with 30-40bps (thanks to its SMB focus). $Adyen's at 0.17%, a dip from 0.23% 2 years prior. Braintree's hovering around 15-20bps. Margin: $Adyen margin target at 65%, still THE most efficiently run fintech co. $Stripe was barely profitable on adj. EBITDA (not sure how much SBC) in 2022, according to media reports. Valuation: @ Peak: Both Stripe & Adyen hit $90B+ in 2021 @ Today: Adyen <$30B vs. Stripe $50B (2023 round) Multiple Metrics: On 2024E net rev: both seem to be valued at ~13x (assuming $Stripe can grow at 20% CAGR). On 2024E EBITDA: $Adyen trades at 23x $Stripe's a wild card, given it was "barely profitable just 6 months ago)! If they hit their (rumored) historical best of 20% EBITDA margin, then implied multiple is 60x+; if they can do 10% EBITDA margin, the implied multiple is 120x.

The innovation ecosystem in the San Francisco Bay Area remains the envy of the world 🌉 No one else is even close. Cc: @garrytan @RoKhanna @altcap @erikbryn

In some sense I appreciate the candor -that he went on a podcast to proudly share that Venture Capital only works if you dump your bags on the public at the top

one of the most genius organic growth engines of all time is the @Zillow Zestimate a little startup secret: it was spawned by a very simple @bgurley question! bill asked @Rich_Barton: "what would you build if you had a $0 marketing budget?" the rest was Zistory!

This week on Clouded Judgement: Datadog Consumption Trends - Median software multiple: 6.0x - High Growth software median: 9.5x - Mid Growth software median: 8.6x - Low Growth software median: 3.5x - 10Y: 4.0% cloudedjudgement.substack.co…

E141: BG^2!!! 🫡🫡 @altcap and @bgurley fill in for @chamath -- state of series a's -- dry powder misconceptions -- vc market update -- ipo window opens -- incentives to go public soon -- macro picture ++ more 🔊: bit.ly/alline141 📺: bit.ly/alline141yt

A company that makes knock-off vacuums and air fryers just went public.. it's called SharkNinja $sn Stripe and TikTok are still not public... this is a very strange market huh @altcap @chamath?

Honored to be with @SpeakerMcCarthy to discuss giving every child an ownership stake in America’s future w #InvestAmerica accounts. Also truly inspired to hear him tell my son Lincoln about his optimistic view on President Lincoln & American democracy. @RoKhanna 🇺🇸🇺🇸🙏🏼🙏🏼

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