Fun fact: In late 2001 the US government stopped issuing 30yr debt because there was a surplus. The federal government expected to have no public debt left to finance within a decade.

CFAs scratching their heads this week. 10yr yields 5%+ AND equities at all time highs. We was lied to.

When people ask why Europe is stagnating, show them this chart. New business registrations are flatlining while bankruptcies are climbing. This trend has picked up considerably since 2022.

Oracle's long-term bonds just crossed an all time high of 8.3%. Their 5 year CDS spreads also broke record highs, skyrocketing 16% to 227bps. Bond & credit investors are quietly telling equity investors something about the company - and it's not good.

Absolutely wild oil jawboning & manipulation this week Let's take stock: - Saudi pipeline "fixed" - Houthis attack Saudi port - Diesel export ban coming - Export ban fake news - Hormuz to open in 7 days - Trump rejects said proposal And yet, Brent still holding above $100.

This is INSANE. The value of the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic & OpenAI would be over $5 Trillion. To put that into context: From 1980 - 2025, the 3,365 tech companies that went public were worth at combined $4 Trillion.

2 weeks ago, Ellison pulled the plug on a $7.5B Oracle share sale after everyone freaked out. But yesterday, he still managed to get $9.2 Billion out. That's by taking a loan out on even MORE of his shares. It's a 19% increase in shares pledged since last year & currently over 36% of his shares now back loans. It's also worth noting that Larry is the only Oracle director who is allowed to pledge his shares. Gotta finance that Paramount takeover, Oracle shareholders be damned...

Yikes. The MOVE Bond Volatility Index is SURGING. It's just hit it's highest level since March. IYKYK...

Wow. Consumer Sentiment numbers just released show the declines since January last year. Republicans have seen the biggest % fall over that period. Inflation expectations also jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%. Toxic mix for the midterms.

Never thought I would see this: "Trump says he would be OK with China building cars in the U.S." That would put a nail in the coffin of US automakers. All you need to do is see how popular they are globally. Here in the UAE, they're 50% of the cars. In Asia, they dominate. Even in Europe, they are swarming the competition.

You need to understand that bond yields aren't coming back down. Here's why 5% is the new normal: - Debt supply is exploding as the US needs $2.1 TRILLION this year alone - The old buyers are gone as central banks are selling & foreign appetite is fading - Price-sensitive private investors now set the price, & they demand 3% more to lend for 30 years than in 2020 There's only one real fix: Tax hikes & spending cuts. Good luck finding a politician willing to to that...

The US Energy secretary is begging oil company CEOs to "voluntarily" restrict diesel exports. Desperate times man.

US mortgage rates are exploding! Yesterday, the average 30-year rate jumped to 7.45% as bond yields surged. Just 7 months ago, it was 5.99%. That’s a 1.46% jump since February. For a $400K home loan, that’s ≈$390 more every month to borrow the same amount. The homeowner ladder is being pulled away before our eyes.

Central banks are not just hoarding gold, they are building a parallel system. From offshore RMB clearing and 22 consecutive months of Chinese gold additions to NATO members quietly moving reserves out of North America, the dollar escape route is already active.

The fact that even Trump is concerned about the Yen tells you something. He personally told the Japanese PM that he's worried about it Apparently more Bessent intervention is coming. ANYTHING to stop the government selling those treasuries to support the currency.

ANOTHER record in the Japanese bond market. 30yr yields just broke all-time-highs at over 4.2%. 10yrs ago, the yield was near zero. The country's debt load is finally catching up with it as the bond vigilantes are in control. The BoJ is in a tough spot.

Don't panic. There is a final plan to address the surging yields. And it involves the Fed. Debt monetisation is the end state. You don't own enough hard assets.

Scott Bessent has abandoned his previous 3,3,3 target in favour of the more ambitous 5,6,7 - 5% 10yr rates - $6 / gallon diesel - 7% mortgage rates