Trader. Nature Lover. Chart enthusiast. Head of Technical Research & Strategy @SchwabResearch & Contributor @SchwabNetwork Imp Discl: bit.ly/3JtFGDT
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$MOVEIndex and $VIX have reached a near-zero 3-month rolling correlation.
The two volatility measures have become notably decoupled, with bond-market volatility currently moving very differently from equity-market volatility.
Historically, periods of pronounced divergence between the two have eventually been followed by a re-coupling, although the direction and timing are not implied.
The $MOVE Index can sometimes lead $VIX, making the relationship worth watching for signs of a potential shift in equity-market volatility.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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#Silver is coiling near support as Bollinger Bands reach some of their tightest levels of the year.
Technicians may look for a reversion in volatility to accompany a price breakout.
The widest portion of the triangle is roughly $8. Using classical charting techniques, that range can be applied as a potential measured move in either direction.
A confirmed downside break could imply a potential measured move back toward prior lows near $55, while an upside break would imply a move of similar magnitude in the opposite direction.
*Technical patterns are subject to failure and measured objectives are not always met
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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#RUT #Russell2000
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is known for being a trend-strength gauge.
Peaks and troughs in the ADX can provide meaningful information for trend-followers.
ADX peaks can indicate that trend strength is beginning to wane, making them a potential consideration when evaluating whether to continue holding a trending position...
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results *Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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The Average Directional Index (ADX) is known for being a trend-strength gauge.
Peaks and troughs in the ADX can provide meaningful information for trend-followers.
ADX peaks can indicate that trend strength is beginning to wane, making them a potential consideration when evaluating whether to continue holding a trending position...
#TNX $TNX
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
Bob Farrell once said:
"Parabolic advances usually carry further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways."
A historical market observation worth keeping in mind... $TNX
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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#HighBeta just broke out to new all-time highs relative to #LowVolatility
However, momentum is diverging, as the MACD is forming a lower high.
Historically, similar momentum divergences have at times accompanied early or failed breakouts.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: StockCharts.com
Risk appetite may be knocking on the door.
#HighBeta vs #LowVolatility has expanded higher from a volatility squeeze and is now testing resistance that has defined the upper end of the range for much of the year.
Similar setups in the past were accompanied by periods of relative strength from higher-beta equities.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: StockCharts.com
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Following up on this thread....
$USDJPY has been rejected at polarity (old support now new resistance).
#SmallCaps & #Financials are also pausing at a polarity zone following their nearly simultaneous breaks of support.
Meanwhile, Treasury volatility #MOVEIndex has picked up while equity volatility remains relatively subdued with #VIX < 15.
The divergence between rates volatility and equity volatility is becoming increasingly notable...
Does the bond market move first—or does equity volatility eventually catch up?
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart sources: thinkorswim and StockCharts.com
If $USDJPY does break what technicians may deem as resistance of its prior rising channel, market participants may be watching $Smallcaps, $Financials, credit spreads, and the $MOVEIndex for confirmation.
So far, only $RUT and $Financials have broken support.
Meanwhile, credit spreads and the $bond market remain relatively contained, suggesting a mixed message across asset classes.
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim and StockCharts.com
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$SPX could be forming a potential inverse head & shoulders formation.
Technicians may keep an eye on neckline resistance near 7780 for potential confirmation of the pattern.
Keep in mind, technical patterns are subject to failure, and confirmation and follow-through would be needed to validate the setup.
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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Charts of the Day:
#DowIndustrials & #DowTransports are both sitting at a polarity zone, which can act as potential support.
$DJT is printing a potential inside day, while $DJIA is printing a potential CAHOLD (Close Above the High of the Low Day).
Both patterns can serve as potential reversal signals, but confirmation and follow-through would be needed to validate the setup.
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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Thank you for the mention!
“$NatGas has broken above its Anchored VWAP from yearly highs.
Some technicians may be watching to see whether the move is accompanied by above-average volume, which may provide additional confirmation of the breakout. @RachelDashCS
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim”
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*So, as a consumer, I welcome housing price weakness to ease what I think is an overpriced market. But not via a GFC crash, bank bailouts, TARP, banking, W. Street games, etc. G-d save us, then
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The #MOVEIndex, a measure for Bond market volatility, just notched the highest 5-day rate of change since March 15, 2023
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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With 10-year Treasury yields on pace for another weekly advance, I looked back at every $TNX streak of 7 or more consecutive weekly higher closes over the past decade.
In the prior occurrences identified, $Yields subsequently experienced multi-month declines.
Following the 2021 streak, yields fell approximately 36%. Following the 2022/23 streak, yields declined approximately 23%.
Historical patterns can provide context, but they do not indicate how the current streak may resolve.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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Bob Farrell once said:
"Parabolic advances usually carry further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways."
A historical market observation worth keeping in mind... $TNX
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
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