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James Chanos retweeted
New pod in your feed this morning!
Dan sat down with @RealJimChanos and @GaryMarcus to talk all things AI, data center financing, agentic systems, animal spirits and p(doom) scenarios 🎙️🤖
YouTube: piped.video/g9KdLg9sTX4
Apple: apple.co/4xFzz5v
Spotify: tinyurl.com/yfcsh2c8
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Yes, but that’s pretty much my point here. These are equipment leasing companies and their all-in cost-of-capital is crucial to understand.
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Will this be before the Chicago Loop-O’Hare and/or Downtown Miami projects? @boringcompany
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So Grok believes that the related data centers and GPU’s for ~5.8 GW will cost $65B…?! $IREN
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And how much capital will $IREN have to invest to bring in that $13B of Adjusted EBITDA in 2030…?!
Bernstein models $IREN scaling to ~5.8 GW longer term with cloud revenue reaching ~$17B and adjusted EBITDA ~$13B by 2030.
Interesting that they assume Childress stays flat at 750 MW so almost all of that upside comes from proving Sweetwater design can be repeated across Oklahoma, Australia and Europe.
Thats where the opportunity gets really large if IREN can execute with three-year contract pricing already up 125% even as the note also models ~$65B of incremental CapEx before the full revenue ramp.
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Aaron Rodgers says he saw a headless man during ayahausca hallucination jsonline.com/story/sports/nf…
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1. You are quoting a colo rate, which does not include GPU’s, and, 2. My point is that if Anthropic can’t make money paying $20M per MW on the margin, then the neoclouds have some ‘splainin to do.
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So you are comparing ARR at EOY with average compute cost for the past. Got it. You might want to keep in mind that “ARR” is a marginal revenue metric, which should be compared to marginal costs.
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That works both ways, of course. If they lock-in a multi-year compute cost do they lock-in token prices too? Or is it all spot price revenues?
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Per my earlier posts…
Anthropic and OpenAI are now chasing 20 to 30 MW compute deals alongside gigawatt projects as “speed to usable capacity” becomes increasingly important.
That puts already energized sites in a way stronger position as labs look to take whatever capacity can come online fastest.
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Yes, but you seem to be confusing business models. Anthropic is renting the “production machines” that are already in place. They rent compute, and turn that compute into tokens-which they sell. The hyperscalers/neoclouds make the “investment”.
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You’d better tell the neocloud bulls that. They seem to believe otherwise. And if Anthropic can’t pay those rates…who can?
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The “vast majority” of their compute has just been signed, or will be in the 4th quarter. According to the hyperscaler/neocloud bulls it is not at $10-15M per MW anymore. Someone is getting this narrative wrong.
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