Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for đşď¸ maps, âˇď¸ ski slopes & đť trad tunes. Has seen enough.
Washington, DC
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New @CookPolitical: GOP on track to lose House majority as 15 race ratings shift towards Dems. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/hâŚ
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New @CookPolitical: with less than 40 days to go, the most critical voters are the "doubly disenchanted" - the ~17% of Trump disapprovers who aren't (yet) in the Dem column. The critical pain point for them? Energy/gas prices. My full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/nâŚ
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New @CookPolitical: with less than six weeks to go, the fight for the Senate is a true Toss Up, with three races shifting towards Dems:
#GASEN: Lean D to Likely D
#KSSEN: Likely R to Lean R
#SCSEN: Solid R to Likely R
Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/sâŚ
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Voters competitive CDâs polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (whoâs underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will âreform entire systemâ vs serve as a âcheck on Trumpâby 39pts.
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NEW @CookPolitical: our battleground district poll shows a seven point swing to Democrats in the most competitive House races vs. 2024, putting them in excellent position to win the House majority. Full analysis by @Amyewalter and Carrie Dann: cookpolitical.com/analysis/sâŚ
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
In recent era, midterm âwavesâ have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/nâŚ
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trumpâs â24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump â24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/hâŚ
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Massive win for Dems, as SCOTUS blocks Missouri GOPâs 7R-1D gerrymander. #MO05 Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) goes from doomed to safe, and Rep. Ann Wagnerâs (R) #MO02 now worth keeping an eye on too.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court pauses a federal district court order that directed Missouri to use a gerrymandered 7R-1D map for this yearâs midterms. The midterms instead will be conducted under the old 6R-2D map. No noted dissents.
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
How will we know if 2026 is a wave election in the House? For @amyewalter, the real sign of a wave year wonât be how many seats Republicans lose, but rather the types of seats that change hands.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/nâŚ
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Before Dems get carried away celebrating the Missouri redistricting ruling, important to keep in mind SCOTUS/state courts would likely need to greenlight an entirely new election calendar w/ 60 days left before 11/3. No guarantees here.
If Missouri does have to use the 6-2 map, thatâs fundamentally incompatible with the primaries, which were conducted under the 7-1 map.
Easiest solution would probably be to hold jungle primaries on Nov. 3, with runoffs at a later date. Parties could also just appoint nominees.
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
The GOP challenge isnât that MAGA fans stay home; 2/3 of MAGA Râs in Fox poll said they were âextremely motivatedâ to vote. But, non-MAGA Râs excitement to vote was net 20 pts lower. Why? These are the Râs most unhappy w/ economy + Trump handling of it.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/nâŚ
.@SpeakerJohnson previews the midterm convention: "The president's gonna look right in the camera and say, I am on the ballot. Because even though his name isn't, right, his administration, his legacy, the America-first agenda is."
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
In WI, Hong was lumped in with El-Sayed as a progressive insurgent, but she lacked his candidate skills/campaign infrastructure; in MN, Flanagan helped the most by Craigâs Laken Riley vote. In CT, Larsen lost b/c of age, not ideology.
Last night's primary results were a reminder that candidate and campaign quality matter â a lot.
Read our post-primary analysis from @amyewalter, @JessicaTaylor and @ercovey.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/2âŚ
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
If you went through â06 cycle, this year feels like dĂŠjĂ vu.
In â06 at this point, W. Bush approve = 37%. Trump at 38%.
Generic ballot in Sept. of â06: D+6.5, Generic Ballot now: D+6.5
In both years: Unpopular war, Members mired in sex scandals. (Sherwood, Foley then; Miller, Mills now).
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
đŻ The CPR team goes live at 8pm ET to talk primaries in Virginia, Missouri, Michigan, Kansas & Washington. Itâs one of the last major primary nights of the 2026 cycle, and itâs a big one.
Watch on Substack: open.substack.com/live-streaâŚ
Watch on YouTube: piped.video/@thecookpoliticaâŚ
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Excited to join @Morning_Joe in a few moments to discuss the new @CookPolitical Partisan Voting Index (PVI). But, viewer discretion: yesterday, my new car's wild rear power liftgate put a huge gash in my forehead, so I'm welcoming any last-minute makeup tips.
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What's the @CookPolitical PVIâ (Partisan Voting Index)? We're out with a new video explainer: piped.video/watch?v=u6DMMI4uâŚ
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NEW @CookPolitical: 2026 mid-decade redistricting has yielded a House map that's more Republican and less elastic. We're out w/ our new PVI scores, and Dems now need to win 57 of 77 seats in the R+5 to D+5 range (74%) to win a House majority. cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/iâŚ
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New @CookPolitical: Far-left candidates are winning Dem primaries, but not in most of the races that will decide the House majority. Analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/nâŚ
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