Assistant Professor of Economics @UConn.

Storrs, CT
Very proud of this paper-I think it’s the bee’s knees. Check it out.
Designing a method for measuring the risk preferences of agents in the deep past, from @remylevin and @daniela_vidart nber.org/papers/w35634
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Every French🇫🇷 passenger train, on an ordinary Tuesday, from first departure to last
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It is important to remember when people say “this is what they took from you”, that it’s this. This is what they took from you:
Dostoyevsky on the death of his infant daughter. A passage that has stayed with me years after I first encountered it
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It's important to learn math not because you may need to do long division as an adult, but because it promotes rigorous thinking. IMO, history and causal inference are among the most important subjects a young person can study — math being central to the second. A significant problem in public discourse right now is people's inability to critically evaluate causal claims (e.g., vaccines cause autism, deporting immigrants will solve the housing crisis, etc.). The less able people are to critically evaluate causal claims, the worse our democracy functions because people can be preyed upon for votes. You should promote anything that improves rigorous thinking, even if it doesn't have market value. In fact, we should stop thinking of education only in the context of what improves the economy. IMO, this is distinct from knowing your own address (which Huang can avoid because he's wealthy). Memorizing facts like this may or may not be important, but it's distinct from rigorous thinking.
HUANG: “.. Try getting a kid to do long division right now. Multiplication tables are starting to be forgotten. Doing square roots? My goodness. .. .. Does it matter? .. I don’t think it does.” @ezraklein @JensenHuang
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The past tense of “lead” is “led,” not “lead.”
What's the word/grammar hill you are absolutely dying on?
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To me the biggest risk of AI is brain rot. I have more and more situations like this. Some coworker shares a report on something they did. I read, and find something fishy. I ask about and get no answer. I ask again and I'm told: the agent said that. And no follow up. It's clear form the interaction that they did not read the report they shared. Their brain is not used as it should be. I am not against AI at all (fortunate for something working at NVIDIA). I use AI a lot. But I use it as a tool. I own the result and whenever I see something fishy I ask about its output I force a change if I am not convinced. I wish there was a way to force people to read the AI output they share with others.
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We need to bring back the notion of "evil" in public discourse, because this is what this is.
This Kalshi ad is among the most dystopian ones I’ve seen from any betting app
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As someone who did this kind of genome mining work during my PhD, some thoughts on this Anthropic announcement: First, the very simplified version of what they did is that they noticed two genes (one known, one new) sitting next to a weird repeating piece of DNA. More specifically, they described an unusual reverse transcriptase (RT) associated with a repetitive DNA array and an unknown accessory protein. This kind of process was used to understand CRISPR back in 2002 and was key to the gene editing tools we use today. To put this into context, though, people have been finding RTs associated with CRISPR arrays since 2008, and this general kind of genome-neighborhood mining has been used to discover new biological systems for decades. The basic genome-mining strategy is well established, and there are now mature tools and published pipelines for doing much of this. There are papers that discover and experimentally validate dozens of new systems using this approach in a single study. Doing it in bacteriophage genomes is also nothing new (eg CasPhi). Finding a weird cluster of genes and repeats is often the easy part. The hard part, and where the real discoveries come from, is figuring out what the system actually does. Eg for the bridge-RNA discovery in 2024 from @arcinstitute or the discovery of CasPhi in 2020 from @DoudnaJennifer they figured out the pieces of the system and the rules for what makes it work so it can be used. Anthropic does not yet know what this does. They’ve shown that the repeat array produces RNAs, but not what those RNAs do, what the RT does with them, or whether the system has any of the programmable properties that make the CRISPR comparison justified. I’m genuinely rooting for all of the frontier labs to seriously get into biological discovery, and I’m excited about what comes out of it. But announcing these very early, incremental findings with the framing of a major discovery doesn’t help. I’d much rather they set the bar high now, so that when an AI actually discovers a fundamentally new biological mechanism, everyone appreciates how big a deal it is.
Claude has discovered a previously unknown enzyme system hidden in the DNA of bacteriophages. Beside the enzyme’s gene sits a long array of repeating DNA—a structure that looks somewhat similar to CRISPR. We don’t yet understand what this system does, but only a handful of known systems share its features, and all of them are able to cut, copy, and paste DNA. Historically, the discovery of such programmable systems has helped revolutionize medicine. CRISPR, for instance, is now the foundation of genetic medicines. But it will take much more work to learn what this system does, and whether it can be put to similar use. Read more: anthropic.com/news/claude-di…
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This is *exactly* why I say we need *more* human mathematicians now than ever, not fewer! I watched the video, start to finish. I'm not a combinatorialist, but I understood every word, and could have understood every word as an undergrad. (The idea of counting things and showing that the count is positive, and therefore concluding that the things actually exist, is very familiar to number theorists!!..) I'm embarrassed I never even heard of this problem, despite my great Rutgers colleagues Szemeredi and Komlos and others (the Hungarian mafia) having worked on it. It's a beautiful problem, and beautiful solution. "From the BOOK", as a certain Hungarian might say :) If AI keeps coming up with amazing arguments like these, we, again, need many more mathematicians to go through them, make sense of them, incorporate the ideas in new research and textbooks, etc etc. So much work to be done; all hands on deck!
Replying to @thomasfbloom
And now there is also a great blackboard talk by David Wood presenting the entire proof (piped.video/watch?v=WJlyqPj2…). 3/
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Really nice report. Follow up: why has the fall in AI prices been so fast? When you plot the price decline against cumulative R&D investment rather than time, you get the elasticity of price declines to R&D investment. By this margin, AI is not unusual – its price elasticity to R&D investment is squarely in the middle of Epoch's considered technologies. So the AI price fall is historically unprecedented because we've dumped money into AI R&D at a historically unprecedented rate – and that R&D has paid off at a very average rate.
AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.
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A few weeks ago Astra gave a stunningly simple proof of the Erdős-Sós conjecture in graph theory (previously thought to be very difficult). It has been a good example of how the lifecycle of AI proofs should be: after the AI formalisation posted at erdosproblems.com/548 1/
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the plan? fire all of our profitable customers
Dr Oz says the Trump administration will kick more than a million people off health insurance because some of them have "never filed a claim"
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Writing is thinking. It is completely reasonable to have an academic journal policy that requires submitters to prove that at least one academic has thought about the topic enough to write a few pages of their own words about it.
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It's bizarre how casually Republicans now accept massive government intrusions into the free market, not because of a national-security emergency, but because stuff is expensive.
Terrible news, terrible policy, terrible effects. Just terrible all around. So, OF COURSE, they're moving ahead with it. axios.com/2026/09/22/trump-d…
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Two kinds of drift I see when students rely heavily on agents in research (even when overall use is reasonable): 1. Project direction drifts & more effort is needed to bring things back to initial goals. Easy to spend wks talking thru nuances of tangential aspects of the work. 1/
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On this note; we have updated our paper on the local effects of data centers. We now have a 🚨new instrument for data center development🚨 leveraging historical determinants of fiber connectivity and foreign growth in large scale facilities. Effects are substantial, and qualitatively align with those of our earlier draft. nitter.net/nberpubs/status/205611…
A few (personal) thoughts on reading empirical AI papers on the economy. Economists have gotten used to reading papers with super clean identification, arguing about the validity of an instrument, making sure parallel trend assumptions are satisfied. This is what gets you into a top journal, and it is *very* important research (no question here). But it also takes years and sometimes decades to get these types of papers right---people often don't find a good instrument to answer a specific causal question decades after the natural experiment. We will eventually have this type of research for AI as well, and it is absolutely necessary. But right we also need signals *right now*, even if they are noisier than what we are used to. We need papers where we can trust that researchers did their best methodologically, while at the same time acknowledging that the space is moving way too fast to wait for perfect identification. This will allow us to accumulate enough signals, coming at the same question using different angles, for example, to say "yes, X is likely happening in the economy". The AI exposure and early career hiring papers are a good example of this. There is no silver bullet paper with super clean identification. But at this point we have several independent teams reaching the same general conclusion, enough where we can say "there seems to be a slow down in AI-exposed, early career hiring."
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The US took a big step toward greater state ownership or control of the economy—a form of socialism—in 2025. This change is occurring under unified Republican domination of the US government. #PIIECharts
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Agree that ethics are socially constructed. But at least the Deontologist-Consequentialist split, if not natural law, seems like a Natural distinction. Deontological systems assign moral weight to considerations ex ante of actions, & Consequentialist to considerations ex post.
Love the meme, but it swings the pendulum too far in the other direction. Yes, ethical rules are not natural laws, but “vibes” underplays what they are: social conventions established within a society. This was indeed Hume’s position on justice. Modern game theory can complement this view by explaining why and how people adopt and follow these conventions, what role they play in organising social cooperation, how they evolve, and why they differ across times and places. 👉optimallyirrational.com/p/mo…
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funes_… as always Borges is worth a re-read
Let me elaborate on this: 1. My running mental model for the current AI models is that they are a form of collective human intelligence. Basically trained on our corpus as a whole. Very powerful, BUT: that process has a “smoothing” factor - idiosyncratic thoughts are averaged out. And much of what makes human intelligence valuable (especially with respect to taste and judgement) lives in individual idiosyncrasies. 2. The other big feature of the models is their fact that they are not limited in memory or computation ability like we are. This means that they are not forced to forget, and therefore to edit and distill their thoughts. I think that forgetting is just as important as remembering in the process of human learning. It’s one of the main sources of creativity and generalization, both dimensions that the AI tends to lack in. I think both these features are inherent to the LLM training process, so I don’t see them changing soon. And what they result in is a qualitatively different form of intelligence than ours.
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This is the dumbest government in history
Dr Oz says the Trump administration will kick more than a million people off health insurance because some of them have "never filed a claim"
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Astonishing how many posts like this there are about Tao, someone with no apparent arrogance who has spent his life sharing his gifts with the world.
Hey Terence What you are experiencing right now is this weird phenomena called “humbling”. Most of us midwits experienced this in high school or college. If you’re lucky young adulthood. But nobody was ever smart enough to humble you. So we made a machine to ensure you get brought down to earth like the rest of us. When you played down AI some months ago you were in the denial phase. Now you are in the anger phase. Soon you will reach acceptance like the rest of us.
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