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bitcoin:native held the 200 week moving average near $64K and is now retesting the 50 week around $81K.
That zone runs into the May high at $82.8K, so it's the most contested area on the weekly chart.
Weekly closes either side of it are what we're watching.
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The Fed holds rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in a 9 to 3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike. Chair Warsh reaffirms the 2% inflation target and offers no forward guidance
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Eric Trump posted an ETH/BTC chart last Friday: "ETH is pumping hard! Crypto is the future."
The Trumps aren't tourists here. This is a family that made $1.4B in crypto last year, more than any US-listed crypto company earned. When they talk, it's not sideline commentary, it's core portfolio positioning:
→ World Liberty Financial, the venture Eric co-founded, holds ~$131M of ETH, its second-largest position
→ Roughly $594M of that $1.4B came from WLF
→ Most importantly is the chart he chose: ETH/BTC (not ETH/USD). That's a rotation call
ETH just went +13% on the week, double BTC's move, with ETF inflows behind it.
Some non-technical indicators that could signal we are nearing ethereum:native's bottom
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Interesting data point.
bitcoin:native has bottomed in a midterm year every cycle since 2013:
2014 → -85%,
2018 → -84%,
2022 → -78%,
2026 → -48% so far
Everyone is deep in ETF flows, gamma levels, and funding rates. Meanwhile the pattern that's actually held for 16 yrs is sitting right in front of us.
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🚨 BREAKING: US CPI comes in soft across the board
-Core CPI m/m: 0.0% (vs 0.2% forecast, 0.2% prior)
-Core CPI y/y: 2.6% (vs 2.8% forecast, 2.9% prior)
-CPI m/m: -0.4% (vs -0.1% forecast, 0.5% prior)
-CPI y/y: 3.5% (vs 3.8% forecast, 4.2% prior)
Inflation cooling faster than expected
$BTC
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10 Macro Thoughts
Markets transitioned from war-trade to rate-trade. The signal is in the bond market, not the headlines. 👇
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10/
On-chain: 80% of supply held by long-term holders, fresh high. Over half of supply at a loss, a level seen only near troughs. No bear ends without tagging the 200-week at 62.6K. Cycle location, not a trade signal.
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NEXT WEEK: JOLTS, ISM, NFP.
NFP is the print that matters.
The full read is in this week's SDM Market Beat 👇
streamyard.com/watch/esJ6d99…
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Secure Digital Markets retweeted
I learned a lot moderating a discussion with Michael Geraci of SDM @SD_Markets & @willreeves of @fold_app talking about building and managing a sizable bitcoin position.
If you're managing a stack or thinking about allocating, check out the video! 👇
treasuries.sdm.co/?utm_sourc…
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SDM sat down with @willreeves of @fold_app, one of the only publicly traded Bitcoin fintech companies on Nasdaq, to break down what it takes to build and manage a Bitcoin position at size.
Hosted by @TylerCompiler & @pete_rizzo_ of @BTCtreasuries.
Watch it here: treasuries.sdm.co/?utm_sourc…
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