Me on why you should read The Elephant in the Brain

My latest for @gambling_com analyses three key takeaways from the ongoing primary season. Could the Democrats blow a golden opportunity? gambling.com/uk/news/us-midt…

News today: The executive director of the National Council on Problem Gambling resigns in the wake of blowback in recent months for its stance on prediction markets and Kalshi’s membership. closingline.substack.com/p/n…

Here’s an article that looks at Pulido’s campaign. It’s perfect for his district. 70 quinceañeras!

Mark Halprein says Democrats could win up to 58 Senate seats this midterm election. He thinks Dems could flip North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and possibly Mississippi on a good night.

Politico: Senate Dems’ main super PAC “actively thinking” about spending in Kansas Senate Majority PAC President JB Poersch told POLITICO the group is weighing what roles it should play in redder states that now appear to be competitive on an improving Senate map. politico.com/news/2026/09/25…

The presumption should be that we're free to do things unless there's really a good reason not to. But the argument I'm ultimately making is not about libertarianism. It's really about the fact that, we have seen—particularly over the last couple decades—our political leaders make some really poor predictions that have been costly. There's no shortage of examples here. My view is that, as good citizens, as people engaged in politics, we have to try to figure out how can we get better at making predictions and doing forecasting. There's a compelling body of academic literature, there's a compelling body of evidence from the markets that we've seen, that when you allow people to bet on politics and you allow these markets to flourish, it's a way for us to try to get better at forecasting." — @pjchougule @JulieMasonShow1 siriusxm.com/clips/clip/fb85…

if you’re new to prediction markets, you probably have no idea about the weird underbelly that is election nerds side betting crazy niche political props in size i can guarantee you this spawned from a heated debate in a private discord group chat where polling crosstabs are analyzed carefully

WSJ POLL: Among 2024 Trump voters, 11% now regret their choice — and among non-MAGA Republicans (roughly one-third of the GOP), 11% plan to vote Democrat for Congress this fall.

JUST IN: AOC officially backs Bernie Sanders’ bill banning AI superintelligence, with violators facing penalties similar to unlawfully developing nuclear weapons.

Rasmussen Reports polls US Senate 2026 (September 2026) 🟦New Hampshire — Pappas +11 🟦Georgia — Ossoff +9 🟦Iowa — Turek +5 🟦Michigan — El-Sayed +3 🟦Ohio — Brown +3 🟦Maine — Jackson +1 Alaska — Tied 🟥South Carolina — Graham +5

Former Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is opening doors for DSA-backed L.A. mayoral candidate Nithya Raman — bringing her face-to-face with some of the city’s biggest power players, TMZ reports. He hosted an off-the-record meeting at his L.A. office last week. Hollywood, business, and nonprofit leaders could ask her anything. Some were shocked he’d host a democratic socialist. After her pitch on L.A.’s problems, several who arrived skeptical walked away impressed. In the room: at least seven people from United Talent Agency — including his agent Jim Berkus — plus execs in celebrity finance and clean tech, the CEO of After-School All-Stars, and the director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute. His chief of staff said Raman faced tough, unlimited questions and handled them well. tmz.com/2026/09/25/arnold-sc…

sorry i already have a potentially irresponsible amount on osborn

Max Miller subpoenas ex-father-in-law Bernie Moreno dlvr.it/TVfPLc

🚀 I’m officially joining Polymarket community engagement: If you want to talk markets, ask questions, or just hang out, I’ll be in the official Discord:👉 discord.gg/zY4pURJd6 This is only the beginning. A lot more is coming. Stay tuned. 👀

Read out full piece on the decision here: ingame.com/sixth-circuit-kal…

Kalshi suffered yet another legal defeat Friday, as the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit became the second federal appellate court to rule that states can apply their gambling laws to sports event contracts. The Sixth Circuit comprehensively rejected Kalshi’s arguments. In a 3-0 opinion, it determined that Kalshi’s sports contracts did not meet the definition of a swap, and even if they did, the CEA did not preempt state gambling laws.

"quoting economists at the Federal Reserve, amicus explains that prediction markets can act as a 'source of real-time . . . data' for 'informing monetary policy decisions' and 'open new avenues for studying monetary policy transmission, market sentiment, and macroeconomic uncertainty.' ... It is, therefore, difficult to see how determining the probability that a certain number of corner kicks will be taken in a given soccer game—or that a 30-leg parlay will hit—would serve [to] advance those goals.”

Not beating the unregulated sportsbook allegations i’m afraid

CNN’s Harry Enten: “President Trump has the highest strongly disapprove rating going into a midterm election on record.” Strongly disapprove (pre-midterm): — G.W. Bush 2006: 41% — Trump 2018: 45% — Trump 2026: 50%