I told you that Anthropic believe that 50% of jobs will be done by AI in about two years, which was the average of what its own AI researchers believe. The entire staff was polled. Some believe AI leaders should keep that secret. I believe that we should be honest. So strongly disagree. But now there has to be real leadership on jobs. @DarioAmodei should join @elonmusk who is showing the best leadership. See my previous post for how.
TFTC
@TFTC21
Apr 17
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: “50% of all tech jobs, entry-level lawyers, consultants, and finance professionals will be completely wiped out within 1–5 years.”

Apr 18, 2026 · 7:24 AM UTC

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Here is the post about Elon:
Robert Scoble
@Scobleizer
Apr 17
I'm a slow learner. And a minor in economics. I interviewed @VitalikButerin back when he was just starting. He developed Ethereum. If I was fast I would have bought some. When I interviewed him an Ethereum cost $2. Today it costs a LOT more. Same with understanding the new economic model that's coming. People in San Francisco say "don't worry about jobs, we are headed toward an age of abundance." Hard to get on that train as I see family and friends struggling economically after getting laid off. But this message from @elonmusk made it all click for me. We are, indeed, headed into a world where AI and robots do most of our current jobs. Anthropic's own engineers believe that AI will be able to do half of all jobs within two years, I heard from an investor who recently gave a speech there and asked them. We all feel it and know it. AI is taking away our jobs. Been seeing many messages along these lines on X's AI community. And normies are hating AI for it. We all hate change, even me. The only real answer is not to slow down, but accelerate through this moment of pain. I recently had dinner with a woman who is running a new construction robot company. Her robot can tie rebar 6x faster than a human. And the humans who do that job? They have the highest injury rate in construction, she told me. Robots don't get hurt. If we accelerate we get to the world where AI agents and robots do all of our shitty jobs. Which, let's be honest, almost all jobs suck. I've had jobs all my life and had some of the best ones that humans can ever have (I got paid to walk around Microsoft with a video camera, remember). Even that job sucked. A robot could do that even better. Here is proof of that. Asked Grok to simulate a conversation on this topic between a simulated Robert Scoble and a simulated Elon Musk: grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_e209… In 10 years when there are millions of Optimus, or other humanoids, walking around, they will be able to do even our most "fun" jobs. Which will leave us to do new jobs. Like setting up shop in a Holodeck that most people don't yet see. Or building new things for robots to do. Like entertainment most people can't yet see either. Grok lays it out. Acceleration is the right answer. Get us through this period of maximum pain fast so we can get on the other side where there is a lot of fun to be had.
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Sort replies: Relevant Recent Liked
Replying to @Scobleizer
In 1900, 41% of the US labor force was in jobs related to farming. By 2000, farm mechanization had reduced that to less than 2%. If you went back to 1900 and told them that farm mechanization was going to eliminate nearly half the jobs in the US, you’d be hearing the same stuff you’re hearing now. But for every job lost, many more were created. It’s not the end of labor. No UBI will be necessary. People who say this don’t give the human race enough credit. AI/robotics is a layer, just like Faraday’s discovery, on which entire industries will be built that we can’t even fathom for many generations to come.
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Yes!
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Replying to @Scobleizer
I can’t see 50% of jobs going within 2 years. Maybe within a narrow sector of the market but not overall. The potential may be there but the actual application of it all will take longer as the world is run on legacy systems. To contradict myself a bit, I think that a lot of those old systems won’t change but they will be replaced. Rather like the rise of the digital banks broke the old banking model. And Revolut is now rolling out Ai banking here in the UK.
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We can remake old systems with AI.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
Honesty is paramount! Did the angstmongerers also tell the public about the opportunities of new higher qualified jobs?
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Of course not.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
A dystopian future is about to unfold, if we don’t address this issue head on very soon. I will explain in a new post soon. After an 11 mile hike up a mountain today, I got full clarity on why this is an issue.
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What you call dystopia has many advantages. Go on another walk. There are two sides to all technology.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
In the near term, jobs will be lost, but people will find new work. There is no crisis. In fact, the net result will be much higher real incomes since prices will drop and people will be able to buy much more. The free market will crate new jobs. Government policy should encourage investment and job creation.
David Scott Patterson
@davidpattersonx
Mar 20
There will be four stages in the economic transition to a post-labor, post-scarcity economy. In the first stage, AI will more than double economic output. Many people will lose their jobs, but most will find new work, and real incomes will more than double. Some people will leave the workforce, either by retiring early or by receiving unemployment benefits. (AI implementation stage. 2026 to 2029) In the second stage, AI and robots will exceed the abilities of all human workers and will expand quickly to replace all remaining jobs. Everyone who becomes unemployed will receive universal high income (UHI) payments. (Full unemployment stage. 2030) In the third stage, the economy will continue to grow rapidly, as the quantity and quality of human labor will no longer limit growth. UHI payments will be extended to all adults, and their value will grow tenfold as prices drop rapidly with increasing production. (Continuing economic expansion stage. 2030 to 2035). In the fourth stage, economic output will continue to grow, reaching 100 times current output. UHI will be worth 100 times the current average salary. The demand for most products and services will reach a maximum beyond which people don't need or want any more. We will have reached post-scarcity for most things. Most people will not use their full UHI allowance. We may switch to an economy without UHI, where everything is given away for free. (Post-scarcity transition. 2035 to 2040)
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Replying to @Scobleizer
Why AI Makes Global Poverty A Choice youtube.com/watch?v=PXnO9oxj… @DarioAmodei
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Replying to @Scobleizer
I think this is like the thought experiment around an asteroid. If the president knew it was going to hit and destroy half of the population would he be right to tell people (knowing the chaos it would cause)? I'm more of an ai optimist but know it will have collateral damage.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
Forced entrepreneurship is a bigger trend than Ai change my mind

ALT Big Brain GIF
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Replying to @Scobleizer
The sample is enormously biased though Of course if you ask a group of hardcore coders whether coding can do everything they will say yes Same as a surgeon thinks surgery is the solution to everything
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Replying to @Scobleizer
It's a sales pitch to price his IPO, that's him defining his addressable market.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
This sounds like FUD. What does he know that the people implementing his technology in large companies don't? This sounds like a call to get more investment money to extend the runway for AI research.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
If they believe that, it just shows how deluded they are about how society actually works. 99.99% chance they are wrong.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
What makes this take less credible is that it's nearly a year old and Anthropic just released Opus 4.7 a couple of days ago. It's far from an example of AI Models scaling at the pace that 50% of the market should worry about their jobs being eliminated in 1 to 4 years.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
🎯Scoble on the pulse of it. Real job talks have to happen.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
Dario is marketing, only SV pays heed 😂😂
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Replying to @Scobleizer
I think time will tell in 2 years that Anthropic is 50% wrong
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Replying to @Scobleizer
imo important to emphasize what often is not it will give more than it takes
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Replying to @Scobleizer
First they said automation will end jobs. So I automated everything and they paid me more. Now they say Ai will end jobs. So I automated everything with AI and they pay me more. No fear.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
Hiding it doesn't stop it. It just leaves people unprepared. I'd rather know the wave is coming so I can get out of the way or learn to surf. The real question isn't whether AI takes jobs. It's whether we're building anything for the people it displaces. Are we?
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Replying to @Scobleizer
I’ve found a lot of people in tech, especially those with this kind of academic pedigree greatly underestimate the sheer number and multitude of jobs humans work in the real world. This 50% number they pull out of the air is based on that insulated workdview.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
I just had an argument with a friend on this same subject. People are sleeping on whats coming.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
Elon Musk told us humans would be on Mars by late 2020. The predictive ability of 20 year old Tech Bros is highly overrated. #ConservativesCantGovern #MAGA #Fascism #NaziGOPKKK #PutinsPuppets #Reaganomics #TrickleDownNeverWorks
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Replying to @Scobleizer
There's no "secret" there at all. Very soon, ALL jobs will be lost to AI, agents and robotics. Everyone knows it. Now, we just need a workable solution that prevents people from literally starving to death when that happens. That's all.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
It looks like AI is advancing exponentially and it will compete for resources. The total utility of human jobs may become trivial compared to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of “our” nations. We may want to begin focusing on hobbies we‘re interested in doing when we’re not working.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
But wait a minute, he's saying 50% of entry level jobs will be automated, you just said 50% of all jobs. And that's kind of the point, since there's no data to look at anyone can claim anything they want. It's really just people expressing the view that they think AI will have an impact on the job market at some point in the future.
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Replying to @Scobleizer
AI consensus forecasts that the white-collar jobs will see gradual transformation rather than apocalypse that people fear. AI consensus makes good points including: Critical human skills remain resistant to automation: complex judgment, client relationships, ethical reasoning, negotiation, emotional intelligence, and contextual understanding. These capabilities anchor human value in all four professions. flokker.ai/card/6w0ck3?us=59…

Flokker

Will 50% of these white-collar jobs actually be eliminated within 1-5 years?

flokker.ai
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Replying to @Scobleizer
They’re trying so hard to achieve this
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Replying to @Scobleizer
I do agree that AI leaders should speak about this transparently, especially if they are specifically building tools and features that impact the modern workforce. What I really dislike is the framing. Is there only ONE way for CEOs to react to this resource? By firing people?
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