Yes, more oil is flowing through the Strait. And here’s why Iran may want it that way
Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, speculated in a recent interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston (@commoditycontext) that the reason why more crude is getting through the Strait of Hormuz may be because some countries are paying Iran a toll, possibly up to 20% of the value of each cargo.
I cannot verify whether this is true or not, but I have heard directly from the Iranian side that certain countries in the GCC have struck deals with Iran to allow their oil to get out, and that this is the main reason why more traffic is flowing rather than the Trump administration’s military efforts. “Whatever flows through the Strait, it’s because we are allowing it to flow,” I have been told.
One can dismiss the Iranian account as a desperate effort to claim control over a situation that, on the surface, is moving against Iranian interests.
But there may also be a logic that explains why Iran would not only allow more oil to flow, but also a narrative in the West that claims Tehran has lost the battle over the Strait.
Full analysis on Substack:
tritaparsi.substack.com/p/ye…