$RKLB - Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates $122 price target on Rocket Lab and maintains overweight rating
'We remain bullish, and we view this as a good entry point' "Rocket Lab (RKLB, OW) Fully Funds Acquisition of Iridium and Completes 96th Launch. RKLB previously announced plans to acquire Iridium Communications, which includes a constellation of >60 operational satellites and >10 on-orbit spare satellites.
On 9/15, Rocket Lab disclosed it received sufficient cash to fund the pending acquisition, which is expected to close in mid-2027. Operationally, we expect the acquisition to integrate RKLB's launch and spacecraft manufacturing capabilities with Iridium's global LEO L-band spectrum satellite network, and, in our opinion, this acquisition re-solidifies RKLB as a pureplay, end-to-end space company that will ultimately build and launch its own rocket and design, deploy, and operate its own constellations under a single roof. Iridium reported total revenue of >$850M in FY25, and for FY26 we model RKLB revenues of >$900M; thus, we expect the combined company to double annual revenue once the acquisition closes.
Separately, last weekend Rocket Lab launched its 17th Electron mission of the year, and 96th successful Launch to date (Electron and Haste), and we continue to view this successful track record and launch heritage as an important moat in the industry (which remains significantly launch constrained). More importantly, Rocket Lab is still targeting the first launch of Neutron, the company's medium-size rocket, later this year, which we view as the most material catalyst. Neutron is being designed with a payload capacity of ~13,000 kg (vs. Electron's ~300 kg) and a minimum reusable target of up to 20 launches per engine. Once operational, we expect Neutron to become (currently) the only viable alternative (and most direct competitor) to the Falcon 9.
Additionally, recall that management is targeting Neutron for "up to 20 launches per engine," and that management is targeting a Neutron ASP of $50M-$55M per launch (and we expect management to increase ASPs following successful launches). Overall, we continue to view Rocket Lab's track record of successful space launches (heritage is a key differentiator), the portfolio of three different rocket types (Electron, Haste and Neutron), the customer diversification (Commercial and Government / domestic and international), and the dedicated launchpads in New Zealand and in the U.S., as material moats. We remain bullish, and we view this as a good entry point ahead of two material catalysts (Neutron first launch, and closing of Iridium acquisition).
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