๐ ๐ฆ๐๐'๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ง ๐ฆ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ก ๐ก๐๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ง๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก โ ๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐จ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ก ๐ช๐๐ฆ ๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ก ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ฅ
Three index families are asking three different questions about the same company, and only one of them has a date attached.
On 6 January 2026, MSCI decided not to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes. Strategy called it a strong outcome for neutral indexing. The stock rose about 6 percent after hours.
In August 2026, MSCI published the consultation it had promised the same day, applied the proposed screen to its own index, and printed a list of three companies that would be deleted. Strategy is the first name on it.
Both of those things happened. The second follows from the first more directly than the January coverage suggested.
๐ช๐๐๐ง ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐จ๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ก ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ก๐จ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ
The headline was accurate: MSCI would not implement the proposal to exclude companies whose digital assets make up 50 percent or more of total assets, and Strategy would stay in the benchmarks for the February 2026 review.
Two other elements of the same announcement drew less attention.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. MSCI said it intended to open a broader review of non-operating companies generally, noting that distinguishing investment companies from operating companies holding non-operating assets required further research.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐บ ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐๐. Through the February and May 2026 reviews, MSCI continued to withhold increases to share count and inclusion factors for these companies, and deferred additions and size-segment migrations.
For a company that funds bitcoin purchases by issuing equity, that second point is not a technicality. New shares could no longer translate into new index weight. The position was frozen rather than confirmed.
๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ง ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ก ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ง๐ฆ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ฆ
The consultation was published this month, with feedback open until 30 September 2026.
It abandons the crypto-specific threshold entirely. There is no digital-asset criterion in the proposal. In its place, a two-step test applied across all industries.
The core screen asks whether operating assets exceed 50 percent of total assets. An issuer that passes is eligible and the matter ends there.
An issuer that fails is measured against five financial ratios:
โข Operating asset intensity
โข Expense intensity
โข Operating cash flow
โข Fair value intensity
โข Capital dependence
Four flags out of five and the issuer is ineligible for index inclusion. The stated logic is that such companies create value by accumulating and holding non-operating assets, generate little cash from running a business, and rely on external capital rather than their own operations to grow.
๐ฆ๐ง๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฆ ๐๐ก ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก ๐๐ข๐๐จ๐ ๐ก, ๐ก๐ข๐ง ๐ง๐๐ ๐ช๐๐ง๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐ง
MSCI applied the proposed screen to the ACWI IMI as of May 2026 and published what would happen. Three deletions:
โข Strategy, United States, large cap, $23,931 million float-adjusted market cap
โข Yellow Cake, United Kingdom, small cap, $1,807 million
โข Metaplanet, Japan, small cap, $654 million
Three further companies would be placed on a new public watchlist: Center Laboratories, Lydia Holding and SharpLink. Strategy is not among them.
๐ช๐ต๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐. Existing index constituents are treated more gently than newcomers by design. They face looser ratio thresholds, and they are removed only after failing in two consecutive annual filings rather than one.
Strategy lands in the deletion column under those softened terms. That implies it fails the screens twice, at the buffered thresholds built to prevent exactly that outcome for existing members. MSCI does not state this in those words; it is what the deletion column and the buffer rule together mean.
๐ช๐๐๐ง ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ง
In December 2025, Saylor and CEO Phong Le wrote to the MSCI Equity Index Committee arguing that treasury companies are operating companies rather than investment funds, and that a digital-asset-specific 50 percent threshold was arbitrary, discriminatory and unworkable.
The August proposal concedes that principle. There is no crypto threshold in it. The screens are industry-neutral, and the illustrative deletion list bears that out: a uranium holding company sits next to the bitcoin treasuries, and a Turkish holding company sits on the watchlist.
Whatever else the proposal does, it is not a rule aimed at one asset class. That is also what makes it harder to argue with than its predecessor.
๐ช๐๐๐ง ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก ๐ช๐ข๐จ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ฆ๐ง, ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐ข ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฃ๐๐ข๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ช๐๐ข ๐ฃ๐จ๐ง ๐ ๐ก๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ ๐ข๐ก ๐๐ง
Index deletion is not a judgement about a business. It is an instruction to a category of buyer that does not exercise judgement. A fund tracking MSCI World holds Strategy because MSCI World holds Strategy. Remove the constituent and the fund sells, on the effective date, at whatever the market offers.
That makes the mechanical part quantifiable, and several parties have quantified it.
๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฎ๐ป, ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ก๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ. Roughly $2.8 billion in passive outflows if MSCI alone removes the company, and as much as $8.8 billion if other index providers follow. The analysts put approximately $9 billion of Strategy's market value in passive index-tracking vehicles at the time.
๐๐ฒ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฒ๐, ๐ญ๐ฎ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ. For the separate Nasdaq-100 track, Kaasha Saini, head of index strategy at the firm, estimated roughly $1.6 billion in passive outflows on removal.
๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป, ๐ฐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ. The same bank then argued that the exclusion risk was already reflected in the share price, and that the MSCI ruling could act as a catalyst rather than a shock. The stock had fallen roughly 20 percent since the earlier note.
Two notes, two weeks apart, one bank, opposite conclusions. That is not a contradiction to explain away. It is the state of the question: the size of the forced selling is calculable, and the price impact of that selling is not.
๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ก๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ฆ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐ฃ๐ข๐๐ก๐ง ๐๐ฆ ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐จ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก
On 6 January 2026 MSCI announced it would not proceed. The stock rose about 6 percent after hours, on a day with no other company news.
That is the market pricing index risk in reverse, and it is the only clean observation available. It says the removal scenario was worth something in the single-digit percentage range at that moment, against a market capitalisation then in the $50 billion range. Set beside a $2.8 billion outflow estimate, the two do not obviously reconcile.
Three readings fit. The outflow estimate may overstate what actually has to trade. The January move may have been dampened because the announcement deferred rather than settled the question. Or the risk was already largely in the price, which is what JPMorgan argued in December.
Nothing in the published record distinguishes between them.
๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ง๐ฆ ๐ง๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ก๐ข ๐ก๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ
The mechanical outflow is the part that can be estimated. The rest cannot.
โข Liquidity. Passive ownership is permanent ownership. Replacing it with discretionary holders thins the book and widens spreads, which raises the cost of every subsequent trade.
โข Access to capital. The business model funds bitcoin purchases by issuing equity. That requires a buyer base, and index membership is part of what supplies one.
โข The weight is already frozen. Through the February and May 2026 reviews MSCI withheld increases to share count and inclusion factors, so part of the effect a deletion would produce is already in force.
โข Signalling. Both banks noted that removal would be read as a verdict on the structure, independently of the shares that change hands.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ณ๐น๐ฒ๐
๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐ป๐ฎ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด. A company that issues equity to buy bitcoin depends on its shares trading well enough to make issuance worthwhile. Index deletion pressures the shares. Pressured shares make issuance more expensive. That is a loop, not a one-off adjustment, and no published estimate covers it.
๐ง๐๐ ๐ฆ&๐ฃ ๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ก๐ฆ ๐ข๐ก ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ก๐ง ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ง โ ๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐จ๐ก๐ง๐๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐ง
The second track has nothing to do with asset composition. It turns on earnings, and since January 2025 those earnings have been a function of the bitcoin price.
FASB ASU 2023-08, codified as ASC 350-60, took effect for calendar-year public companies on 1 January 2025. Bitcoin is measured at fair value each quarter and the change flows through net income.
It replaced a worse rule. Under the old impairment model bitcoin could be written down but never written back up, which at one point left Strategy carrying coins below $16,000 while the market traded above $94,000. The new standard fixes that.
๐ฆ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐. It also means a company holding 843,775 bitcoin reports a quarterly result dominated by a number nobody at the company controls, in both directions.
๐ฆ๐๐ฃ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐ฅ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ: ๐ค๐จ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ก ๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐ฅ, ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐ง๐ง๐๐
In Q2 2025 Strategy reported net income of $10.02 billion and diluted EPS of $32.52. Quarterly revenue was $114.5 million.
Those two figures belong to different orders of magnitude, and the gap between them is the mark.
It cleared the last outstanding S&P 500 requirement: positive earnings in the most recent quarter and positive earnings summed across the trailing four. US listing, market capitalisation, float and trading volume had been satisfied for some time.
At the September 2025 rebalance, the index committee declined to add the company. The criteria are arithmetic. Admission is discretion, and the committee used it.
The same rule ran the other way this year:
โข Net loss: $8.22 billion
โข Net loss attributable to common stockholders: $8.62 billion
โข Diluted EPS: -$24.45
โข Unrealised markdown on digital assets: $8.32 billion
โข Revenue: $122.4 million, up 6.9 percent year on year
โข Gross margin: 66.6 percent
The two loss figures differ by the preferred dividend obligation, and the per-share number is calculated off the second one. Bitcoin ended the quarter near $58,700 against a blended average acquisition cost of roughly $75,476 across 843,775 coins.
๐ข๐ป๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐ฒ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐. No bitcoin was sold to produce it; the markdown is unrealised. Bitcoin was sold in the period for a different reason. Strategy disposed of 3,588 coins for $218.4 million, the first sale in about four years, to fund dividends on its preferred stock, and authorised a programme allowing up to $1.25 billion in further sales.
That detail belongs in any account of the index question. A company selling the asset it accumulates in order to service its capital structure is evidence in the same argument MSCI is running.
Set the two years side by side. Revenue rose. Margin held. Reported earnings swung by more than $18 billion. An index criterion designed to measure whether a company earns money is, in this case, measuring where bitcoin closed on the last day of the quarter.
๐ง๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ค-๐ญ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฃ๐ง ๐ฆ๐ง๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฅ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ
The third track went the other way. Strategy survived the December 2025 annual reconstitution, effective 22 December, in a reshuffle that dropped six companies and added six.
Kaasha Saini, head of index strategy at Jefferies, had estimated roughly $1.6 billion in passive outflow if the stock were removed. The next annual reconstitution falls in December 2026.
๐ช๐๐๐ง ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ๐๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฆ๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ ๐ฆ&๐ฃ ๐๐ข๐ช ๐๐ข๐ก๐๐ฆ
Neither index family appears to have published a comparable proceeding on digital asset treasury companies. No consultation document, no proposed screen, no announced review turned up.
That is a statement about what the search returned, not about what either provider intends. Absence of a published document is not evidence of a settled position, and this is the weakest part of the picture.
๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ฆ ๐ง๐๐๐ง ๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐๐ฉ๐ ๐ง๐๐๐ฆ
โข 30 September 2026 โ MSCI consultation feedback closes
โข 16 October 2026 โ MSCI expects to announce the result
โข November 2026 โ proposed implementation in the index review
โข December 2026 โ next Nasdaq-100 annual reconstitution
โข Quarterly โ S&P 500 eligibility recalculates with each earnings release, which means with each quarter-end bitcoin price
The last line is the one worth sitting with. For a company whose reported earnings are a function of one asset's quarterly close, eligibility under an earnings test is not a business outcome. It is a price outcome with a filing attached.
MSCI states that its consultation may or may not result in changes. Nothing here is decided.
๐ฆ๐ข๐จ๐ฅ๐๐๐ฆ
โข MSCI, Consultation on Eligibility of Non-Operating Companies for the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes, August 2026
โข MSCI, index announcement on digital asset treasury companies, 6 January 2026
โข MSCI, Index Rebalance Factsheet, February 2026 review
โข Strategy Inc, Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call, 30 July 2026
โข Strategy Inc, response to the MSCI consultation,
strategy.com/msci, 10 December 2025
โข Prakhar Srivastava, Reuters, 6 January 2026
โข JPMorgan equity research note, 20 November 2025, cited in CoinDesk and The Block
โข JPMorgan equity research note, 4 December 2025, index-exclusion risk priced in
โข Kaasha Saini, Jefferies, passive outflow estimate, cited by Reuters, 12 December 2025
โข Nasdaq, annual reconstitution announcement, December 2025, effective 22 December 2025
โข FASB, Accounting Standards Update 2023-08 (ASC 350-60), effective 1 January 2025
As of 13 August 2026. The MSCI consultation is open and its outcome is not determined. Strategy's S&P 500 eligibility recalculates each quarter and can reverse with the bitcoin price. Bitcoin holdings and average cost are as reported in the Q2 2026 release; figures are from the filings and documents listed above, on the dates given. Not investment advice.
Study the Past โ Improve your Future ๐ฅ
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