Private investor searching for delta
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Without agentic Ai, how good of a product will it be ? Edge ai ain't gonna cut it. And even if they want to spend on compute... good luck trying to get capacity in 2026/27.
Apple's new CEO John Ternus should make his first big move by taking on Meta's new VR glasses.
Launch $1500 Apple Glasses that beat Meta on all important specs.
If they can't or won't do that, Apple chose the wrong CEO.
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Wrong. 5.5 opus is actually incredible. Kinda sad for astra
Insane analyst is brilliant at semis. Stuff outside semis ...not so good. Not his forte
Agree with @insane_analyst it’s very likely Anthropic is losing lots of market share to OpenAI right now. Doesn’t concern me much regarding capex but should be negative for the smaller neoclouds now.
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Agreed. New leadership doesnt inspire confidence either .
Id put apple as also under some modest pressure. Siri is going to look so mid compared to muse ...wouldn't be surprised if they have to go back to the drawing board.
Apple has no compute, no great model . How will they offer there version of muse ? Especially while maintaining fat margins ? (I own leap puts $340 , so I am biased)
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i remember turning 18 during obama’s second term & being excited to vote for him. there was genuinely something refreshing about him. a modern, intelligent, optimistic dude. how do we lose?
but his post presidency behavior has drastically changed how i see his legacy.
there’s now this constant strain of intellectual pandering, moral righteousness, appeals to expertise, & constant calls to slow down everything while the enlightened adults explain reality all of us. this felt thoughtful before but now feels pedantic & condescending.
quite simply, he basically became hilary clinton in so many ways.
& saying divisive shit like this only makes it all worse. a huge fall from grace which is pretty sad to see.
Obama: "If you put women in charge of every government for two years... I have a strong belief that things would be better. I'm confident about that."
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Respect your analysis as always.
Think youre missing the bigger picture. This (imo) is shaping up to be the 3rd biggest ai moment - gpt was the first phase 2) anthropic wizardry opened up coding/enterprise and now 3) meta demonstrate the first successful "normie" agentic ai. Its a super product - that will expand the tam big time and benefit the entire sector.
Its NOT zero sum
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Yeah agree with you on stuff like flight/hotel bookings. Vast majority of the planet will do a whole lot of research before making the decision - its too big a $ figure .
But the principle of agentic ai will remain - you will use super intelligence to help you towards your decision . The level of intelligence , ui design, utility provided etc - that will determine how much value the agent captures.
And we are in early innings
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$META keynote thoughts:
Marks awkward presenting skills notwithstanding, i thought meta put out an amazing show tonight.
Palm AI device- this is something I think is perfect for Voice Ai and is exactly the type of ai hardware accessory that is cheap, easy to use and WILL WORK.
VR glasses - let's see actual specs , but looks super promising , light and not too expensive ($1299 for spatial/ai computing)
Very very impressed. So glad im in the stock - i think a $1000 in next 6 months is realistic now provided they can execute decently on manufacturing and models
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You make some good points.
But that being said , there's no going back.
Agent to agent interaction will become the norm for most of these kinds of interactions/transactions. Special stuff = human to human.
But long term, it reduces market friction, improves transaction liquidity, its good overall economically.
Bad for those who's business model moat depends heavily on friction.
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Agreed man. You captured exactly my sentiment .
E-commerce, payments...the ocean is endless for this space. And muse is just so damn good as a product. And bigger picture , its additive. Its adding to my usage- not taking away from gpt.
Very bullish for ai as a whole .
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Rapid price depreciation in unit costs is a very bullish signal for tech revolutions - it means innovation is rapid
Bears frequently get confused by this depreciation
AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023.
That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.
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