Ex-Quant Trader. Unapologetically miserable. Views are my own.
Shaolin
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alarmingly close to most systematic trading strategy codebases
The latest 𝕏 algorithm has been published to GitHub
github.com/xai-org/x-algorit…
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Whether you’re earning £70k or £700k, the impact from this budget (on salary) is nearly identical.
Not very labour ish…
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Love how Amazon AI still can be easily hacked to do tasks you want - including making Python code.
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However even for a relatively small trade ($10k), you'd likely have significant market impact. Though, you could make about 10% in roughly 2 months if you win and if held to expiry. Assuming Piastri keeps winning, it's likely you'll exit much sooner.
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For Max to win the overall championship, he'd need to win nearly all the 7 remaining races, and McLaren would need to have a disaster. This seems highly unlikely given the season so far:
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Maybe the way to trade these markets is to focus on directional mispricing.
Oscar Piastri's odds of winning just dropped ~15%, and Verstappens increased 10% ... but is it even possible for Max to win this late in the season ... or has someones trade blown out (which could be likely given the low volume)?
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Moreover the volumes are absolutely terrible, so if you wanted to open a a well sized spread trade ... it'll be quite difficult (with retail tech) to get position sizing on two exchanges at the same time. Most likely, you'll fk it up, or lock in something measly and insignificant.
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Now the obvious HFT strategy would be to trade Polymarket vs Kalshi, but it's a bit shit. Firstly, the prices don't diverge that much - likely because lots of people are already trading this, or some hedgooor is there behind the scenes. Also it's terrible if you take into account spreads & comms, which are wide AF.
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