Income & Growth Focused Investor | 25 Years Old | General Market Commentary | Lover of Asymmetric Opportunities

Toronto, Ontario
Unpopular opinion but Canadian financials $TD $RY $BMO $BNS $CM trade at a massive premium to American counterparts $WFC $BAC $C and I think that disconnect gets solved by Canadian financials rerating. They have a cult following of “they’ll never go down” so I’m prepared to be called a moron. I don’t see a world where Canadian financials should be more expensive than American banks. I think the solve here is Canadian financials rerating back to normal P/BV multiples.
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I’ve seen quite a few posts about “not fighting the tape”. There’s lots of wisdom in that. Generally, it’s easier to momentum trade. The question is what does your edge become if you’re riding pure momentum? Moves can happen over night or the weekend and trap you in your position. What then? How can you hedge into each weekend? That could be costly and diminish your returns. Hedging in momentum generally increases one’s sharpe ratio and decreases total return. I’m not against momentum trading. But to say it’s the only source of alpha is a lie. I think the easiest edge one can have is just identifying mispricing in the market and longing the reversion to the mean. There’s so many businesses today down 30, 40 or even 50% + from all time highs. Single digit or low double digit earnings multiples. Still achieving the rule of 40. Strong balance sheets and market positioning. The reason? AI exists. That has put a big question mark in terminal growth rates for a ton of businesses.
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Funny that since this post $RDDT did actually get added to the index and is down roughly 17% because … who knows really. Seems more so like an AI opportunity cost trade to me than anything else. Trades at roughly 18x 2027 EPS ($4.5B revenue @ 33.5% margin = $1.5075B … $28.75B market cap / $1.5075B = 18.4x 2027 EPS … remove the $2.7B of cash and that’s 17x 2027 EPS). Depends which side of the coin you take. Some people believe that non-AI stocks will stay permanently depressed and feel safer chasing semis/infra related build out names. I personally just like to own all the high quality names, regardless of the sector. As long as there’s margin of safety, I’m in. But if you told me that $RDDT getting added to the $SPY would be bearish, I’d never have believed you. Crazy times. Market has been out of whack.
In my opinion $RDDT will be added to the SP500 at some point. The index is underweight on communication names. $RDDT $ZM are the two candidates in that space. Easy bet if you ask me. Reddit all day.
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Also note that I’m using consensus figures which have historically NEVER been accurate as $RDDT has always beat + raised even higher than high end estimates since they have been public. So these figures could be even cheaper. I’m going on a realistic assumption and assuming no AI deals, midpoint revenue growth and net income margin.
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The Wise Investor đź§  retweeted
How I imagine the typical $UBER strategy meeting goes. Completely fed up and tempted to dump this shit
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Source (rough math).
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Market loves the $CEG power deal with $GOOG but doesn’t really care for all the power deals $BN & co struck … make it make sense.
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$UBER overpaid here but I can see the synergies being nice + expanding their take rates. Overall it’s a small M&A deal so not that worrisome but they didn’t get it for a steal (in my opinion). 21x TTM EBITDA isn’t cheap. But I can see the synergies pushing it to 16x EBITDA.
$UBER is making a $2.3B all-cash bet on corporate catering with its acquisition of ezCater. ezCater processes more than $2.5B in annual gross bookings across 140,000+ restaurants, with average orders above $400 and high-teens growth. Uber plans to fold the business into Uber Eats and Uber for Business, adding a much larger presence in workplace meals, group orders, and enterprise catering.
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Looking to start a position in a small cap company on the Canadian side. Pays over a 5% dividend yield in the financial space and is sub 2B market cap. I’ve posted about it before but now I’m serious about buying it. It’s dirt cheap here. Huge M&A candidate as well. Has exposure to Caribbean, US and Canadian markets. Trades under 1x P/TBV and is rate sensitive. Any guesses?
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So you mean to tell me there’s a data center renaissance going on in America yet the materials suppliers ($CRH $VMC), engineering companies ($WSP.TO $STN $STRL) and power bottlenecks ($CEG $VST $CCJ $BIP) aren’t getting any follow through? So who’s right here? Why do neoclouds catch a giga bid but the underlying infrastructure that puts them online is sold off? Something is not adding up here … Credits to my buddy @Science30383275 for the idea. I think long $CRH $VMC $STRL works from here (and related names). If this buildout is still very early these names should see meaningful multiple expansion as a lot of their backlog of data center related.
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“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves” - Matthew 7:15 Hits pretty hard when you actually understand what is being said. Extrapolate this as you wish.
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Life comes at you fast. Thank God I’m ok. This weekend I had to get rushed to the ER because I thought I was having a heart attack. This is going to be a crazy post so brace yourself. And it’s 100% authentic and screw who ever says otherwise because this is the most authentic thing I’ve ever written. $RDDT helped me diagnose an issue I have that AI and Doctors couldn’t pinpoint. Yes, you read that right. Fucking Reddit did. Specifically, r/costochondritis did. It’s a subreddit filled with 200k+ people suffering from the exact same thing I have. Yesterday I was experiencing intense chest pains out nowhere. I’m a 25 Y/O Male who’s physically active. Non-smoker, don’t drink much and occasional nicotine pouch enjoyer. Nothing out of the ordinary. AI was virtually useless. It told me on several occasional I’m suffering from heart failure or outright said I’m fabricating my condition. The doctors said all tests were fine and that the pain I’m experiencing is all in my head (anxiety). I knew this was a load of crap. What I felt was real. It was neither. It’s something called costochondritis. Essentially it is a condition where your rib ligaments are inflamed and press up against your sternum, and it can feel like an intense stabbing pain when you take a deep breath. It’s very similar to a heart attack and quite frankly scared the fuck out of me. And I found this out on Reddit search. I read hundreds of comments from years prior talking about people experiencing the exact same symptoms I had. How to deal with it, how they managed it. How doctors said they too were fabricating it. So now this begs the question. Why is $RDDT being treated like such a garbage company? Their data is truly unique and invaluable. Technology can be wrong at times like AI was as well as trained medical professionals who told me it was anxiety. I had to sit down with the doctor and show him these Reddit threads. Then, and only then did he consider that this condition is what I likely suffer from. He referred me to a specialist and off I am on my journey to fix this. I can already predict that I’ll be getting a barrage of comments saying “this guys lying” in an attempt to push sentiment on $RDDT higher. That’s fine. I am even exposing my real first name, which is Matthew. I’m happy to show my drivers license to prove that this is not a fake image and this was actually a photo of the hospital wristband I received. Anyways, the purpose of this post was not necessarily about my conditional, but more so that I found great use in Reddit when I was in a time of need. And I genuinely believe this proves how valuable human written data is in an AI world. I’ll be increasing my $RDDT position Monday. I’m very grateful that r/costochondritis exists and the thousands of people who suffered from it who decided to share their experiences. If anyone experiences the symptoms feel free to reach out to me or just simply check the costochondritis sub Reddit. It’s a shitty feeling, but you’re not alone.
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Specifically shout out to r/costochondritis for helping me out. This subreddit is an absolute gold mine. None of the bull shit you get from Google, Claude or ChatGPT. Just raw, human experiences. How to navigate it. How they fixed it. Not the traditional “take a Percocet and chill the fuck out” response your doctor and AI will give you. I refuse to believe that $RDDT isn’t sitting on a valuable data set.
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Tons of flaws in this argument. ROAS is accretive to proven products and brands. “Small businesses I own” can mean anything. Is the product/service you’re advertising have existing customers or reviews? Advertisements will NEVER get you customer #1 or #2 … that’s not how advertisements work. Advertisements are to expand outreach not effectively run your GTM campaign. I’m no fan of $APP but to say that $META $GOOG are superior in Adtech simply because your small business product GTM campaign flopped with one third party ad manager doesn’t really prove much. It just proves that $APP is probably not the right tool for you in this case. In fact, I would argue that any advertisement is probably not the solution. Get your first customers on organically, create a following, then advertise. That’s what I believe is the optimal order of operations if I was to scale a product. I am generalizing here because I don’t know what the “small businesses” he owns do, but I’d have to imagine that their GTM is essentially non-existent which is pretty stupid to use $APP as an acquisition channel to find customer #1 …. No consumer on any platform is buying a product or service with 0 reviews or reputation. Just my thoughts.
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Hot take. $SPGI is not that cheap at 19x forward. It’s actually fairly valued today. Another 25% drop and I would consider it dirt cheap. 19x forward earnings becoming the new “rock bottom” is quite ridiculous. As if 19x earnings is some cycle low for $SPGI. It’s also not even down 30% from its highs yet. Barely even in a structural bears market. Also … I don’t see why you would you assign the 3% and 6% growth divisions a 20x multiple? Seems disingenuous. Those divisions are slow growers. Companies growing that slow trade at 10-12x, basically like utility businesses. If you change these multiples … $SPGI fair value is $400-$410 stock. Margin of safety today is barely 7%. Call me when it gets to 30%.
$SPGI S&P Global is now trading for literally just the price of it's ratings and indices business. A sum-of-the-parts valuation is quite eye opening.
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It’s genuinely concerning to see breadth in the market so weak. No one is talking about it. This either ends in one of two ways : 1) Breadth recovers and we see net new highs (SPX 9000+) 2) Breadth continues to crash and markets get a much needed reset (SPX 5000 -) Go study history. When has a concentrated rally led to multi-year bull markets and not had severe drawdown? I’m not sure what’s happening but I don’t see this as a risk takers paradise. How could it be?
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Even with today’s $SPY $QQQ gap ups … breadth deteriorated to 41% now. Less and less stocks are contributing to this rally. There’s a real bear market outside of the AI trade. Something is going to give. You can’t have a concentrated rally for this long.
Market breadth remains super weak. For contest, only 44% of stocks in the SP500 are GREATER than their 200 DMA. This level of breadth hasn’t been seen since March of 2026 when the indexes drew down 10-15%. Below 20% remains the historical buy signal and has marked every bottom.
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@grok has there ever been a period in history where the indexes made net new highs for many years after while breadth amongst the index remained very concentrated? Is this good for a bull market?
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