It’s really simple in my mind.
Mobility will be a (net) accretive event for anyone.
The TAM for rideshare probably goes exponential from here.
Why would the younger generation like myself pay for a car (obsolete asset that depreciates, costs money to maintain and insure) when I can have mobility on demand for a fraction of the annual cost without having to also pay for parking?
Uber wins this game by simply aggregating demand and controlling some of the supply. They have to do more M&A in the mobility space and increase equity stakes in AV labs to own the supply functionally.
But I personally see a market where Uber, Tesla, Waymo and many others dominate in their respective geographies.
Tesla will be a winner in America. Waymo, Uber will fight for international market share.
I don’t see how Uber is a 0. People want convenience. All Uber has to do is put an “autonomous category” option and instantly they do more trips than any AV lab combined.