Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time.
Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is:
pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-…
Haven't watched the Saints offense too much this season, but has it always been the case that the whole offense is basically Shough throwing highly contested targets downfield? That's just wildly inconsistent. They need more.
4th&10, absolutely. 4th&15/20 are probably more reckless than aggressive. The way to victory at this point is two stops anyway (Even if you score a TD here and after a first stop to take the lead, you still need to stop a game-winning FG), so might as well cut it from 13 to 10.
Their final drive looked like this. Not where the Lions want to be in terms of offensive identity. If only down 3, their playbook is wider and Goff would probably be more comfortable, so it not only allows for a FG for OT, it should also make the game-winning TD more likely.
Weird decision by Liam Coen, accepting the penalty for 3rd&16 instead of 4th &1. Zac Taylor doesn't really have a history of going for it in 4th down on the own 35