Timo Riske@Timo_NFL

Mathematician, Data scientist. A simple mind thinks everything that didn't happen couldn't have happened. Tweets/opinions are my own.

 Germany
Based in Germany
Joined January 2017
4,590 Photos and videos
Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time. Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is: pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-…

2023 NFL Draft: Investigating the value of draft picks (revisited)

Timo Riske takes an in-depth look at the true value of draft picks and provides a blueprint for teams ahead of Thursday's first round.

pff.com
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Every single year Dak should get much more MVP attention
Anthony Dabbundo
@AnthonyDabbundo
Oct 5
Through four games, the Cowboys offense ranks fifth in points per drive out of every offense since 2000
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Name a better 0-4 team than the 2026 Houston Texans
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Timo where can we follow your work now? I love your noise-cancelled analysis.
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Right now, you won't get that, unfortunately. You might find out soon where to follow my work and maybe those noise-cancelled stuff comes back
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Replying to @Timo_NFL
2004 bills
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Good catch actually. That could be a blueprint for the Texans. Those Bills were 2nd in defense and 23rd in offense by EPA/play. If the Texans can be 15th in off and get back to top 5-ish in def, they have a chance to get there
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hab das Spiel noch spezifisch mit Blick auf die Vikings Offense angeschaut. Murray war echt gut. Spielt gut aus der Pocket, attackiert die Mitte des Feldes, geht tief, findet Checkdowns. Aber vieles drum herum einfach sloppy. Strafen und Drops, wacklige Protection, zu viele...
Adrian Franke@adrianbb89
Oct 5
ich find nicht dass Kyler - in der kleinen Sample Size bisher - das Problem ist tbh
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Aber: Es gibt hier definitiv einen positiven Spin! Wenn Murray *so* spielt, sie Jefferson zurück bekommen und ein wenig mehr Stabilität mit ihrer Line haben, kann das eine Top-15-Offense sein. Und das dann in Kombination mit dieser Defense kann noch richtig gut werden
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top 15 in field goal attempts😤
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This Falcons roster would be a Super Bowl favorite with a slightly better quarterback
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I still think their defense needs help. But Ulbrich is doing more with less
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i mean yes if their defense were better, they would be SB favorites even without a better QB😅
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Haven't watched the Saints offense too much this season, but has it always been the case that the whole offense is basically Shough throwing highly contested targets downfield? That's just wildly inconsistent. They need more.
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4th&10, absolutely. 4th&15/20 are probably more reckless than aggressive. The way to victory at this point is two stops anyway (Even if you score a TD here and after a first stop to take the lead, you still need to stop a game-winning FG), so might as well cut it from 13 to 10.
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yeah it was an emotional decision more than a rational one.
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Absolutely and somewhat understandable given how the defense could not stop anything up to that point.
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I think dans assumption was that he wasn’t going to stop them twice
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well in which case it's an L anyway, because even if they score on the 4th&20, they likely need two more stops. The path through two stops was their most realistic path. 4th&20 lateral, nobody falling for this in big 2026
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I always feel like it should be forbidden to tweet such things without giving comparisons to recent seasons
Andrew Siciliano
@AndrewSiciliano
Oct 4
Athan Kaliakmanis is the 48th @NFL QB to throw a pass this seasons. It's only Week 4.
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Ok, here it is through week 4 from 2020 through 2025: 45, 43, 45, 48, 49, 51 So 48 through two games of week 4 is not a crazy number
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The number for 2026 is 49 now after the Lamar injury.
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Game-losing field goal from the Raiders?
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They scored zero points in the second half and lost. Not surprised at all.
Timo Riske@Timo_NFL
Oct 4
The Eagles have 20 first half points with an abysmal 3.3 yards per play and 3.7 yards per pass play
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idk a punt feels like the 3rd best option here
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Josh Allen with one of the craziest throw aways you'll see
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Weird decision by Liam Coen, accepting the penalty for 3rd&16 instead of 4th &1. Zac Taylor doesn't really have a history of going for it in 4th down on the own 35
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Heads up play by Jakobi Myers
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The Eagles have 20 first half points with an abysmal 3.3 yards per play and 3.7 yards per pass play
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Also 0 for 6 on 3rd down
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One of the lying scores so far. Let's see if Rams can come back
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