Life investment coach, father, husband, veteran. Invest early and often: spiritually, physically, emotionally, mentally, financially, and relationally.
ID.IT.UT.AK.CO.NM.FL | IRQ.AFG
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Every day I carry a copper coin in the pocket of my uniform.
Stamped across it are three Latin words: sic semper tyrannis — thus always to tyrants.
Life is crowded with things that demand our time, our attention, and our lives. Many of them feel urgent. Far fewer of them are actually important. We miss the important work not because we are lazy, but because we are busy putting out the next fire, answering the next email, finishing the next report.
This coin is a reminder: do not let the urgent become the tyrant over the important.
There will always be another briefing to give.
There will always be another email you could draft.
There will always be another task, another deadline, another pressing matter at work.
Those things are real. They matter in their place. But when they push out time with your spouse, your children, or the neighbor who could use a hand or a listening ear, you have lost the plot.
The urgent is a poor master. It never finishes. It never says “enough.” It will take everything you give it and still ask for more.
Kill the tyrant. Guard the relationships that actually last. Keep first things first.
Never let the urgent become the tyrant over the important.
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Shameless AI generated post about the benefits of NAC; if you aren't supplementing it, you may want to...
N-acetylcysteine is a cysteine prodrug and glutathione precursor. The strongest evidence is for acetaminophen overdose and as an adjunct in some chronic respiratory diseases. Many other uses have peer-reviewed human trials or meta-analyses, but evidence quality ranges from robust to preliminary or mixed.
Antidote for acetaminophen (paracetamol) overdose. NAC is the established standard of care; it replenishes hepatic glutathione and limits NAPQI-mediated liver injury, especially when given early.
Raises glutathione and overall antioxidant capacity. Meta-analysis of controlled trials found NAC increases total antioxidant capacity (TAC), glutathione (GSH), and catalase.
Reduces exacerbations in COPD and chronic bronchitis. Multiple RCTs and meta-analyses (including high-dose 1200 mg/day regimens such as PANTHEON/HIACE) show fewer acute exacerbations; some analyses also report better symptoms or quality of life.
Mucolytic effect (thins and loosens mucus). By breaking disulfide bonds in mucins, NAC reduces sputum viscosity and can ease expectoration in chronic bronchopulmonary disease.
Improves semen parameters in male infertility. A systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs found significant gains in sperm volume, concentration, total motility, and normal morphology, with a favorable safety profile.
May improve ovulation and fertility outcomes in PCOS. Systematic reviews of RCTs report higher ovulation, pregnancy, and (in some analyses) live-birth rates versus placebo, though metformin is often more robust.
May lower risk of contrast-induced nephropathy. Several meta-analyses of RCTs report reduced CIN incidence with oral or IV NAC plus hydration, particularly around coronary angiography or CT; other analyses find little or no benefit on dialysis or hard outcomes.
Adjunctive improvement in schizophrenia psychopathology. A meta-analysis of RCTs found adjunctive NAC improved total psychopathology scores versus placebo, with similar adverse-event rates.
Attenuates influenza-like illness. A 6-month RCT in older adults found NAC 600 mg twice daily reduced frequency, severity, and bed days of influenza-like episodes and lowered the chance that infection became symptomatic.
Anti-inflammatory activity. Clinical and experimental work shows reductions in markers such as IL-6, TNF-α, and CRP in some settings (COPD, pneumonia, meta-analyses of RCTs), partly independent of its antioxidant effect.
Possible kidney-function and cardiovascular support in CKD. A systematic review and meta-analysis reported better eGFR/creatinine trends, lower inflammatory markers and homocysteine, and fewer cardiovascular events, with good tolerability.
Liver support beyond acetaminophen. Reviews and trials describe use in non-acetaminophen acute liver failure and anti-tuberculosis drug–induced liver injury, with signals for improved native-liver survival or reduced oxidative stress.
May improve exercise performance and exercise-related oxidative stress. A systematic review of controlled trials in adult men found benefits for performance, antioxidant capacity, and glutathione homeostasis, though effects on inflammation and muscle markers were inconsistent.
Preliminary motor and imaging signals in Parkinson’s disease. A translational systematic review found consistent preclinical neuroprotection; small open-label human studies reported modest UPDRS improvement and DAT-signal increases, and NAC reached CSF at high oral doses. Larger RCTs are still needed.
Short-term reduction of a glial-injury marker in progressive MS. A phase 2 placebo-controlled trial found 4 weeks of high-dose oral NAC lowered serum GFAP versus placebo; neurofilament light did not change over that brief window.
See below for even more benefits 👇
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Possible adjunct for OCD-spectrum and related compulsive behaviors. Reviews cite RCTs and clinical series for obsessive-compulsive disorder, trichotillomania, and excoriation (skin-picking), with the strongest signal often in excoriation. Evidence remains mixed and not first-line.
Anti-biofilm and adjunct anti-infective effects in the airway. Consensus and clinical data support biofilm disruption and possible faster bacterial clearance or fewer exacerbations in CF and non-CF bronchiectasis when used as an adjunct.
Potential adjunct for painful peripheral neuropathy. An 8-week trial of NAC 600 mg twice daily added to pregabalin reported a >50% pain-score reduction versus placebo in painful neuropathy.
Explored for eye conditions linked to oxidative stress. Reviews list possible benefits in dry-eye syndrome, glaucoma, cataracts, and retinitis pigmentosa; human evidence is generally smaller and less consistent than for respiratory or overdose indications.
Investigated in IBD and other oxidative-stress–driven chronic diseases. Narrative and clinical reviews include Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, sleep apnea, and diabetic neuropathy as conditions with plausible mechanisms and some supportive human data, but evidence is less robust than for COPD or acetaminophen toxicity.
Caveats: NAC is generally well tolerated at common oral doses, but this is not medical advice. FDA-approved uses in many countries are primarily acetaminophen overdose and mucolytic therapy. For psychiatric, neurodegenerative, fertility, kidney, and “general wellness” uses, talk with a clinician about dose, interactions (e.g., nitroglycerin), and whether the evidence is strong enough for your situation. Glutathione levels also decline with age, which is one reason research interest has expanded beyond the original indications.
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Hand of God retweeted
Saturday thoughts (related to the GSEs because it's the most glaring inconsistency in American business).
The United States has the best economic system in the world. Legal and financial rules set the lanes so people can use their creative force to form companies and generate massive economic value with products people want. The market economy takes care of the rest.
In my Stanford Business School classes, professors loved to say, “If the dogs eat the dog food, there is value in it. If not, pivot.” Superfluous metaphor for humans aside, the main point stands: if an entrepreneur creates value and manages his company and product well, there is a place for it in the market, and he, together with the owners/shareholders of his company, will be rewarded. Shareholders provide the capital needed to build the business after all.
Our business school education is rigorous in mathematics, accounting, and finance, which itself is somewhat of a mix between hard sciences and a liberal art. Financial projections- pro formas, about the future are often wildly optimistic, or pessimistic, and completely miss the mark. Financial accounting, however, is a set of well-established principles and rules for everyone to follow, INCLUDING our government.
To that end, I was shocked to see how little financial literacy our legal arbiters possess. The judges ruling on the Fannie/Freddie's net worth sweep initiated by the Obama Administration in 2013 displayed a novice understanding of balance sheets and P&Ls. It’s possible the government attorneys knew that Deferred Tax Asset write downs and Net Worth Sweep mechanics would fly over the judges’ heads, and used that to arbitrage that naiveté and win HERA’s anti-injunction 12 U.S.C. § 4617(f) cases that should have been won by the shareholders. Though the shareholders won one big case recently with the breach of implied covenants.
So how do you value $30B+ in annual profits and growing? That’s Fannie and Freddie every year. Why are the companies in conservatorship under the most pro-business President of our time? Is this a capitalist approach? If so, why do students go to business school? Are regulatory captures, nationalizations, and conservatorships the norm now? @pulte, @SecScottBessent, @realDonaldTrump
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人生投资回报率最高的20件事
1. 每天运动30分钟（美国运动医学杂志）
2. 保证7–9小时优质睡眠（哈佛医学院）
3. 每周读完一本书（斯坦福大学）
4. 每年学一项新技能（瑞典卡罗林斯卡学院）
5. 早晨冥想10分钟（加州大学洛杉矶分校）
6. 定期整理房间（普林斯顿大学）
7. 每周进行一次断舍离（日本收纳专家近藤麻理惠）
8. 每天写感恩日记（美国肯塔基大学）
9. 每月参加一次社交活动（芝加哥大学）
10. 每月尝试一道新菜谱（美国哥伦比亚大学）
11. 每周进行一次户外运动（澳大利亚迪肯大学）
12. 定期体检（世界卫生组织）
13. 学习摄影（纽约视觉艺术学院）
14. 每周给家人打一次电话（美国杨百翰大学）
15. 每月参加一次公益活动（斯坦福大学）
16. 学习理财知识（沃顿商学院）
17. 每天练习书法15分钟（中国书法研究相关机构）
18. 每月看一场艺术展览（伦敦大学学院）
19. 学习绘画（俄罗斯美术学院相关机构）
20. 每周进行一次深度复盘（麦肯锡公司）
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Then dumped with a couple minutes left in the trading day 😅
You have to admit, this pair is quite the ride.
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$FNMA and $FMCC could relist to the @NYSE today:
Practical sequence:
▪️FHFA (as conservator) authorizes the application - common holders cannot force this.
▪️Confidential NYSE eligibility review.
▪️Hold $4 for 90 days if they use the market-cap test; stay over $4 at listing either way.
▪️Governance package that NYSE will accept while conservatorship still exists, or wait until exit.
Transfer agent, listing application, $25,000 application fee and $325,000 initial listing fee for common.
@PershingSquare has argued they already meet the quantitative tests and could list before exit if FHFA agrees.
NYSE can waive or phase some items, but it doesn't have to. The 2010 delisting was a price-maintenance problem ($1 continued-listing test), not a statement that the businesses were unfit. Relisting is a new initial-listing decision, not a restoration of the old listing.
Nasdaq Global Select or Global Market are alternative venues with their own tests. Same political gate: @FHFA has to want it.
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The renter saving $1,200 per month versus the mortgage, depreciation, appliance repair, homeowners insurance, and vacancy losses over that same 30 years - IF investing that savings in an S&P 500 matching index fund or ETF finishes with a maturity value of $2,735,190.
Next.
The point isn't who gets equity or payments, it's mostly what you do with what you're saving or earning. Do the math - it doesn't fold under emotional or prideful pressure.
A renter paying $2,500 a month for 30 years puts $900,000 into the landlord's pocket and finishes the term owning nothing. Zero equity, zero appreciation, zero tax deduction on any of it.
A homeowner with the same $2,500 mortgage payment on a $400,000 property finishes 30 years with a fully paid house worth roughly $970,000 at 3 percent annual appreciation. Net worth impact: positive $970,000 versus zero.
Same monthly cash out, same neighborhood, million dollar swing on a spreadsheet nobody in high school teaches.
The single most important number in your financial life is not how much you earn. It is which of the four categories your income falls into: labor, interest, dividends, or capital gains. Rent goes to someone else's fourth category. Wages come from your first.
Chaoshengzhe teaches a foundational course in matrix theory drawing on the MIT curriculum. The lectures are free on YouTube. He walks through matrix operations and invertibility, the linear algebra every serious real estate portfolio runs on. Same math a REIT uses to allocate $30 billion across 800 buildings at the same time.
The lecture is free. The willingness to move a dollar from someone else's category to your own is the entire fortune.
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Worth a read.
IMO / My Read - Educational Only. Not Financial Advice. Please do your own DD.
Why I think $FNMA $FMCC weakness to $4.85 is interesting before any potential recap news. This is my opinion on how large deals often work:
1. Banks lined up for a potential IPO/secondary typically prefer low volatility / quiet tape pre-deal. FNMA is OTC, wholesale flow dominated. IMO this can lead to price being walked down.
2. Treasury optics: My read is selling 5% and marking 95% to market could look better if baseline is low BEFORE and higher AFTER - textbook taxpayer win headline. IMO low now could help optics later.
3. SPS overhang: In my opinion, any potential Senior Preferred resolution might be easier to explain at lower levels vs higher.
AIG, Citi, GM, BAC all traded like distressed during TARP exit until structure was revealed - then repriced. That is historical pattern, not a guarantee this does same.
I see $195B+ retained, $30B+ annual, $0 draws in ~10 yrs, backing $10T+ housing. 18 yrs conservatorship is long - in my opinion.
If/when structure drops (SPS, PSPA, IPO path) - IMO commons could rerate, but could also go lower. Risk is real.
We hold. Long $FNMA $FMCC since 2013. NFA.
$FMCC $FNMA - IMO, My Read, Educational, Not Financial Advice.
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$TOPS - After more digging... The company said nothing new happened in the business, yet the shares shot up and then started slipping... just like the spike in March that later collapsed in May. Common shareholders do not seem to get the big “asset value” number the company advertises, because that value sits behind a lot of debt and extra shares created whenever the price rises. If you are sitting on a gain from the recent low, this is the moment to take it rather than wait for last winter’s prices to return. I'm out before the end of the week depending on some very key signals tomorrow at the open.
This seems to be the way this company patterns over time, and I'm less convinced their fundamentals are worth even the small %of my portfolio allo ated here.
$TOPS +40% today. Someone knows something; look at this volume.
I bought in July and September expecting the strait to be a major mover here.
Here's the official "line": "The Company has made inquiries and does not believe any conditions requiring corrective action exist at this time. The Company is further announcing that there has been no material development in its business and affairs not previously disclosed or, to its knowledge, any other reason to account for the unusual market action."
C'mon.
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$TOPS +40% today. Someone knows something; look at this volume.
I bought in July and September expecting the strait to be a major mover here.
Here's the official "line": "The Company has made inquiries and does not believe any conditions requiring corrective action exist at this time. The Company is further announcing that there has been no material development in its business and affairs not previously disclosed or, to its knowledge, any other reason to account for the unusual market action."
C'mon.
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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have the same Treasury warrant: the government gets to own 79.9% of the common stock once everything is cleaned up. That means today’s public shareholders only keep about 20% of whatever value is left after the senior preferred is canceled if the warrants are exercised.
Fannie Mae has about 1.16 billion public shares.
Freddie Mac has only about 650 million public shares.
After you subtract the junior preferred claims, Fannie has a bigger leftover pile of equity in total dollars. But that gets split among almost twice as many public shares. Freddie’s equity is smaller in dollars, but it gets split among far fewer shares, so each existing Freddie share ends up owning a bigger piece of the 20% that the public gets to keep.
That’s why, if the government really does cancel the senior preferred, list both stocks on a major exchange, and let them out of conservatorship, Freddie’s stock would likely jump by a bigger multiple from today’s price (roughly 11–14x versus Fannie’s 7x in a reasonable scenario). I think this is generally what @JonOksenholt of Oksenholt Capital was driving at as well - and he added the US Fintech value on top of all these figures.
The extra capital they might still need to raise and the exact earnings multiple the market gives them after listing would change the exact numbers, but they wouldn’t flip the basic math. The smaller public share count at Freddie is the main reason it would pop more on a percentage basis.
At this point, I'm not trying to define "best" for everyone, but I have a pretty high risk tolerance and I'm positioned accordingly - I'd personally pick $FMCC over $FNMA (well, by virtue of the actions below, I did) today, but there are other factors you need to consider. A "good" stock is defined differently based on your own circunstances. Fannie has the stronger financial position, larger scale, higher earnings power, and a modestly clearer path to recapitalization and listing benefits (if the retained capital requirements remain as-is). My advice is to do your own research and know your risk tolerance. Until we blow, keep watch on the volume and volatility.
2:1 ratio of FMCC:FNMA as of today.
Few will care, but it's worth transparency. I have remained unchanged in my F2 conviction and position size. I have, however, tax loss harvested by previously selling all $FMCC "specific shares" (very important) that were at a loss to buy $FNMA. 31 days later, I reversed that exchange and sold all "specific" FNMA shares that were at a loss and bought FMCC.
Why? This created a sizeable realized loss pool in my portfolio, though I have exactly the same total dollar value invested. What this means: when the future realized gains come (whether from the F2 rocket or other positions I sell), they are offset by these losses, so I will not pay taxes on those realized gains until they exceed that loss pool.
These are allowed because Fannie and Freddie are competitors, like Coke and Pepsi, which avoids a wash sale (which would erase the loss harvesting you just did).
I highly recommend you look at your own portfolio and rebalance as necessary. If you have high confidence that these two companies will remain as tight-patterned as they've been so far, it's pure profit later (through the lens that not paying taxes is the same as earning income).
If you want any help on the "how to" I'm happy to take DMs. Otherwise, I'm sure there's a YouTube video for that.
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2:1 ratio of FMCC:FNMA as of today.
Few will care, but it's worth transparency. I have remained unchanged in my F2 conviction and position size. I have, however, tax loss harvested by previously selling all $FMCC "specific shares" (very important) that were at a loss to buy $FNMA. 31 days later, I reversed that exchange and sold all "specific" FNMA shares that were at a loss and bought FMCC.
Why? This created a sizeable realized loss pool in my portfolio, though I have exactly the same total dollar value invested. What this means: when the future realized gains come (whether from the F2 rocket or other positions I sell), they are offset by these losses, so I will not pay taxes on those realized gains until they exceed that loss pool.
These are allowed because Fannie and Freddie are competitors, like Coke and Pepsi, which avoids a wash sale (which would erase the loss harvesting you just did).
I highly recommend you look at your own portfolio and rebalance as necessary. If you have high confidence that these two companies will remain as tight-patterned as they've been so far, it's pure profit later (through the lens that not paying taxes is the same as earning income).
If you want any help on the "how to" I'm happy to take DMs. Otherwise, I'm sure there's a YouTube video for that.
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Hand of God retweeted
Every glib, arrogant, virtue-signalling celebrity who’s broadcast the lie that kids will kill themselves if not allowed to transition deserves to have this read aloud to them non-stop through a megaphone for a year.
A landmark Finnish study has found a sharp rise in psychiatric illness among adolescents following sex-alteration procedures.
The peer-reviewed study, published in Acta Paediatrica, tracked every young person under 23 who contacted Finland's gender clinics between 1996 and 2019.
A total 2,083 individuals were studied, with 16,643 matched controls. They were followed for up to 25 years.
Finland's health registers are mandatory, which means no one opts out — this is the complete national picture.
The numbers: psychiatric morbidity rose from 9.8% to 60.7% in adolescents who underwent feminising reassignment, and from 21.6% to 54.5% in masculinising reassignment.
Even after adjusting for prior psychiatric history, gender-referred adolescents faced five times the risk of male population controls, and three times the risk of female controls.
"Psychiatric needs do not subside after medical gender reassignment," the authors concluded.
Referrals after 2010 arrived sicker. 47.9% had already needed psychiatric treatment before their first clinic visit, against 15.3% among controls.
The authors' read: for some adolescents, gender distress may be secondary to other mental health challenges.
The evidence keeps mounting. The silencing continues anyway.
How many more adolescents will be told this is "care"?
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