In short, the facts now emerging about the fatalities in Gaza are exactly as we predicted back in 2024.
A lot of people should lose their careers over their ridiculous statistical modelling predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths in outlets like the Lancet and joke NGOs like AOAV. They won’t. They’ll get a free pass. Their blood libel work is done.
Famine allegations, destruction of healthcare, targeting civilians; all debunked by Hamas’s own numbers. That’s before we get to the 5,000 combatants we’ve found on the lists so far (from obituaries released mainly by the militant groups themselves).
The world’s media should hang their heads in shame.
Gaza Ministry of Health has now released mortality numbers for 2025. For the first time since the war, they give numbers for all deaths, including natural deaths.
In 2025 there were a total of 24,650 deaths in Gaza. 18,870 (76.6%) of these were violent, of which 17,286 (70.1%) were due to "war operations" and 1,584 (6.4%) were classified as accidents. There were a total of 5,780 (23.4%) non-violent deaths, including disease, old age, and all other causes.
5,780 deaths is about the same as the annual non-violent mortality in Gaza before the war, and the age distribution is similar to 2022. There is no significant excess of non-violent deaths.
In other words, despite frequent and loud claims to the contrary, there seems to be very few indirect deaths due to the war in Gaza in 2025.
As there were 50,227 births in 2025, this gives a natural population growth of 25,577 or 1.2% in Gaza in 2025, which is higher population growth than most countries in the world and more than the world average.
There are currently ~6,000 births/month in Gaza, per GMH. Assuming a similar number of non-violent deaths in Gaza in 2026 as in 2025, that means there are currently 12x more births than deaths in Gaza, and that Gaza is now experiencing one of the highest population growths in the world.