𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜’𝗺 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗶𝗻 𝗩𝗖
There is a massive amount of potential liquidity coming back to venture funds over the next several quarters and years.
Between SpaceX, Anthropic, Wiz, Groq, Ramp, Databricks, OpenAI, Cursor, Anduril, Stripe, and others, we could see a monster wave of liquidity in the coming quarters/years.
And a lot of that liquidity is likely to accrue to a relatively small number of firms and it will be a major validation moment for the best firms that had the conviction and access to build meaningful positions in these companies.
It also can't be ignored that it will likely create extraordinary personal wealth for a number of GPs, especially the senior partners at the firms with the largest exposure. In some cases, this could be 9- or even 10-figure outcomes for individuals.
Historically, when that has happened, some GPs, quietly start to hang up the cleats.
Not always immediately, but the wheels start to move, and after 10, 15, or 20 years in the seat and combined with generational wealth, some people naturally reassess what they want the next chapter to look like.
That makes succession one of the more interesting under-discussed topics in venture right now.
For the firms that are about to be “minted” by this cycle, the next question may not just be how much capital they return, or how large the next fund is.
It may be whether they can successfully transition leadership to the next generation.
Some firms have done this incredibly well. Benchmark has repeatedly reinvented itself through new generations of partners. Kleiner, after a long transition period, brought in new talent and re-established itself as a leader.
Others have found it much harder over time.
I don’t know exactly how this plays out, but I would not be surprised to see another wave of senior GP step-backs over the coming years.