Beliefs should pay rent! Unless it has to do with a topic you really, really, really believe in and think is important. Then you can just keep saying "but it's not empirically detectable yet" for as long as you want. Rationality, baby!!
IF we were to see catastrophic dynamics from AI, it wouldn’t happen overnight. We’d get upticks and signs. Unemployment won’t jump from 4% to 50% in a year.
Hence lack of big moves in unemployment yet *IS* data. The post has many examples.
I refer y’all to Yudkowski circa 2007.