Good riddance!

NEW: 🟠 #Bitcoin is up nearly 50% from its June low, up 10%+ in the past week. If the bear market is over, it was the shortest on record by ~100 days and the shallowest, down 52% vs. 77-85% in past cycles, per River data. Rally held despite Fed rate hike and CLARITY Act stall.

We've seen wrench attack frequency increase during this bear market. I expect the frequency to accelerate as we get into the bull market, especially near the explosive end, when it gets a lot of media attention.

Commodity markets are global under American overwatch and because we let them stay globalized. The second we choose to stop supporting this imaginary construct it all fragments. You dear reader havent had to think about this because a series of presidents throughout your lifetime have supported the global public commons and were unwilling to burn countries to the ground if it benefits Americans. That world is behind us. Adjust your worldview accordingly.

A lot of people got triggered by this post, because that's what social media is for. Here's some additional context from the interview about how China's leaders think about their economy, the problem of generating domestic demand, and why structural decay is the easy way out.

RT @LanceRoberts: "Yields are spiking higher; everything is going to go to shit." Hold on there, Sparky. Yields have returned to the long-r…

Dollar weakness was THE most consensus view of the Street. Virtually everyone held it, and most still do, but at least MS is throwing in the towel here.

history throwbaccs 💀

Hester Peirce with another banger “Today society is at a crossroads. Down one path lies the status quo: more data collection, more intermediary surveillance, more “know your customer” requirements that turn our financial rails into a panopticon. Down the other path lies an opportunity to use new technologies to improve our ability to catch criminals while collecting less personal information than ever before, and monitoring more sparingly to protect Americans’ privacy.” sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-st…

AI doesn't make slop. Humans pressing Ctrl+V make slop .

AI doesn't produce slop. Humans produce slop.

I can't believe that even to this day i hear lamentations about the fall of the West, citing Chinese manufacturing pricing prowess, for example in cars. I'm open to arguments that the West is falling and China is ascendan, but don't cite how such-and-such product in America is $100 and the same or better from China is $50. That's redacted. As @michaelxpettis has talked about for more than a decade, much of this so-called "efficiency" comes from Chinese industrial policy, which transfers income from Chinese households to manufacturers This can make Chinese manufacturing internationally competitive even when the overall productivity of the Chinese economy is impaired by the policy. The next time you marvel at that high quality Chinese product whose price is almost magically far below anything from a Western company, silently give a prayer of thanks to Chinese households who are indirectly subsidizing consumption by you (foreigners). Its no wonder that China's historic trade surplus is deranging trade account balances the world over and why America has decided to stop treating China as a good faith trade partner. I only bring this up at all because people I listen to, smart people on good podcasts use this pricing point to extrapolate all kinds of things, such as the AI race, dollar debasement, etc...

I love this quote from @HiddenForcesPod : "We've essentially taken sand and power and made intelligence."

Weirdly, this does exist in Japan and other Asian countries.

There’s no way any of us can predict the impact that AI will have on companies, sectors or consumer behavior (which has been, for all of history until now, human behavior). But to claim that it won’t have an impact and simply brush it off lacks both humility and creativity. Tactics that worked when consumer behavior was dictated by human psychology will fall by the wayside, and those that fail to adapt will be left behind. Every day from now on we will see new examples of areas where friction was profitable becoming cost centers for companies that don’t react in a timely enough manner. Today you might realize just how many flight credits, loyalty points or promotional offers you’ve never used that will end up utilized by agents. What impact will that have? Tomorrow, you might see something that makes you ask how much money health insurers make simply because people won’t sit on the phone for 5 hours trying to get coverage approved unless it’s a massive expense and/or life or death matter. What about your savings account? That money could be in a money market fund, but you haven’t bothered to move it. How much in net interest income is made because of that friction? The coming years will be some of the most interesting for investors who are intrigued by paradigm shifts and their ripple effects. I, for one, could not be more excited to see how it all plays out and invest through the changes.

The higher we pump, the more important it is to stay disciplined on quality. Time and again, people get sloppier the frothier the market gets, chasing empty narratives and catch up trades. The difference will be clear when this initial phase of the new cycle is over.

Could AI crash Bitcoin 50%? @liron gives it 50% odds within two years. @VitalikButerin says a true crypto break is far less likely and ETH would be in trouble too. Market-shaking threat or survivable engineering risk? @_dsencil breaks down what’s actually at stake. 👇

Kalshi real perps volume

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Hmmm, sure seems like signs of froth.