Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia | FRHistS | @warstudies | @kcl_CGS | Postwar Japan as a Seapower. Naval affairs. Strategy. Indo-Pacific. One ping only.

London, England
The Strategic Significance of the Maritime Theatre in the Russia–Ukraine War - good morning X. Delighted and honoured this piece Dan Hallett and I penned is out with ⁦@RUSI_org⁩ flagship publication- a short thread about our argument: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
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We live on an island nation. The piece mentions how vulnerable we are to imports. Why among all the people interviewed, the author did not feel the need to reach out to maritime insurers or maritime specialists?
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Second - there is a clear sense that risks are those unfolding from hazards (like natural disasters) as opposed to threats which unfold from man-made occurrences. That’s never explained as clearly but within that context there are two issues unaddressed:
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A. Why speaking just to a Russian military expert as opposed to specialists on Iran, PRC, or DPRK? convergence and interconnected behaviours are the challenge; B. Why didn’t the author challenge the bias of the risk register - one listings risks more than considering scenarios?
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‘I interviewed a retired general who fought in Iraq and a geophysicist who advised the government on the threat posed by inclement space weather. Interviewees in sensitive positions spoke anonymously to protect their identities.’…
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‘a former cabinet secretary; two experts who sat on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage); experts on supply chains, hydrology, food security, risk communication, process engineering, environmental change and the Russian military.’
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First- the research involved is wide ranging. ‘Looking for an answer to those questions, I spoke with former cabinet ministers and their advisers, senior civil servants and members of the Behavioural Insights Team with direct experience of the Covid-19 pandemic’ …
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‘…skills like critical thinking and creativity are often highly dependent on knowledge its advocates often derogate’. I finally feel vindicated. ft.com/content/724f8ecb-1e2b…
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Alessio Patalano retweeted
I’ve spent a few weeks asking people if Britain is prepared for war, among other doom scenarios. The short answer is no and the condensed reason for why that happened is that we spent the last forty years stripping off and selling the most resilient systems in the country for parts.
How resilient is Britain? ft.trib.al/Bv78ZgH
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This is a remarkable piece of journalism. The production numbers are staggering. The access to foreign made materials too. Two of the most critical parts are from PRC.
RFE/RL takes apart a Russian Geran-4 drone to uncover what makes the jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) faster, harder to intercept, and capable of operating deep inside Ukraine -- from its turbojet engine and advanced camera to foreign-made communications and navigation components. @cxemu @radiosvoboda
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Alessio Patalano retweeted
This is a brilliant piece of journalism - literally deconstructing the latest Russian strike drone, explaining how it works and where the components needed to make it work are being sourced by Russia, even after 4+ years of war
RFE/RL takes apart a Russian Geran-4 drone to uncover what makes the jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) faster, harder to intercept, and capable of operating deep inside Ukraine -- from its turbojet engine and advanced camera to foreign-made communications and navigation components. @cxemu @radiosvoboda
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Here’s the @NavalWarCollege article on the @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute (#CMSI)’s 20th Anniversary event yesterday: usnwc.edu/News-and-Events/Ne… “China Maritime Studies Institute Celebrates 20 Years with Lecture by Former Chief of Naval Operations, Panel Discussion”  The U.S. Naval War College (NWC) celebrated the 20th anniversary of the founding of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies’ (CNWS) #China #Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) on Thursday, Sept. 24, with a lecture by retired U.S. Navy Adm. Gary Roughead and subsequent panel discussion.  “The world-class experts at our China Maritime Studies Institute have been leading international discourse for two decades,” said NWC President Rear Adm. Darryl Walker. “The research and analysis conducted by the CMSI team over the years has been foundational not only to the greater public understanding of geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific region, but more importantly to the planning and decision-making of our senior-most military, civilian and allied leaders.” “Over its 20 years of work, CMSI has become an indispensable resource that places the U.S. Naval War College at the center of some of the most important conversations in the world,” he continued. Roughead served as Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) from 2007 to 2011, and had previously served as commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command and U.S. Pacific Fleet. Joining Roughead as speakers and panelists at the Thursday event were former CMSI Director Dr. Peter Dutton and current Director and retired @USNavy Capt. Christopher Sharman. “We’re showing the legacy of CMSI, and how we’ve addressed policy needs and national security priorities over the years,” @ChrisHSharman said. “We’re letting both the student body and the faculty know what we’re doing, the importance our research has had and how we’re a resource not only to commanders across the Pacific, but also to the teaching and learning communities here at the war college.”  Initially a self-organized group of four faculty members with expertise on China, then-Provost Dr. James Giblin – with support from then-President Rear Adm. Jacob Shuford – established CMSI within CNWS’ Strategic Research Department on Oct. 1, 2024. Founding member Dr. Andrew Erickson wrote in a history of the institute that the U.S. Navy followed suit and designated CMSI an official Navy program, the first service-level China center under the @DeptofWar, exactly two years later. In addition to Sharman and Erickson, CMSI currently consists of associate professors Ryan Martinson (@rdmartinson88) and Ian Easton (@Ian_M_Easton), as well as senior researcher and retired U.S. Navy Cmdr. Daniel Caldwell. “As the @USPacificFleet commander, as CNO, the Naval War College was top of mind for me,” Roughead told a full Mahan Hall reading room Thursday, adding: “As I walk through the halls of the Naval War College, it has been, it is, and it must remain the intellectual center of gravity for our Navy, and a global touchstone for naval and maritime thought. “The small band of scholars here in Newport punches far above its weight,” he later continued. “CMSI gave us deeper insight into the drivers of China’s maritime ambitions through their rigorous analysis and not-superficial means. Their secret sauce was, and remains, the team’s focus, intellect and instincts on what is consequential, and the collaboration they employ among China analysts, linguists and practitioners.” The institute’s personnel use Chinese-language sources – official documents, journals and reports – to generate scholarly research, translations, books, monographs and other products to inform and advise senior U.S. military leaders and national security decision makers. … … … [CONTINUED 1/2]
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Alessio Patalano retweeted
受賞歴のある東京のバーテンダー、小間雄三が今も魔法のカクテルで魅了中!🍸🤯
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Alessio Patalano retweeted
Grateful to Solovyov for doing this just before I update my MA lecture on Russia-UK relations. Shame he didn't threaten to nuke Cambridge again, but you can't have everything. If Medvedev can say something new about Anglo-Saxons in the next couple of weeks, that would be great.
In his latest unhinged rant, Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov says he has questions about why Britain is still allowed to exist He says Britain has given the world nothing of value other than Shakespeare and Dickens
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Alessio Patalano retweeted
Fiona Hill: "The wars in Ukraine and Iran demonstrate to Russian and U.S. allies and partners the dangers of overreliance on single powerful actors for security. They will have to figure out how to position themselves in a post-Russian as well as a post-American world. Neither country will be the decisive, even at times indispensable, country it was in the past.."
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Alessio Patalano retweeted
English translation of my article on the Mogami-class and its impact on Japan’s defense cooperation with partner nations. The connection between SEA 1000, the development of the FFM, and SEA 3000 may be of particular interest to some of my Aussie friends. nippon.com/en/in-depth/d0125…
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Alessio Patalano retweeted
I’m usually not attacked for being naive on China. But I believe strongly in sending students, with appropriate protections, to China. I was one of these students. I cannot see why our piece should be controversial, but realize there are some who believe all exchanges should be halted. I am not among them. Here is our argument: -Longstanding federal programs that encourage US students to learn about China — like Fulbright, CLS, and Boren — should be funded by the US government. We had similar exchanges with the Soviets, and of course with China, in the past. - Given growing risks to students in China, those participating in these programs must be protected from harassment or threats of arbitrary detention, which are growing, and which are why these programs were difficult to renew in the past. - But there is a way out. Summits provide an opportunity to achieve commitments that protect these programs and their students. Trump should (1) elevate these programs into leader-level deliverables, and (2) reach formal (or, more likely, informal) agreements to insulate them from politics. The former sends a signal not to touch these programs and the latter sustains it. - As part of this effort, Min Zin and other scholars and students arbitrarily detained or exit banned by China must be released. - We did not write this in the piece, but obviously these efforts should be accompanied by proper orientation and training for students before they visit China. That was also the case for these programs in the past. It is more criticism now. We have done all this before. It has worked before too. Leader-level recognition of certain programs in China can provide protection. The US desperately needs China expertise. After a surge among millennials, what expertise we did have faces a cliff as students lose interest in and opportunities for studying China and Chinese. That is a problem.
This new @CFR_org "Expert Take" on student exchanges with China is so flawed I had to read it twice to find something nice to say. Here goes: At least the authors acknowledge that American students who travel to China need protection, and that the CCP should immediately release detained academics such as Min Zin and Youlin Chen. Small mercies. Beyond these pro forma nods to reality, the piece's omission of China-side context speaks volumes: --The authors effectively support the CCP's "50,000 in 5 years" drive to recruit US students without once mentioning it. Announced by Xi Jinping in 2023, this initiative has reportedly already reached its target but continues because its architects believe it provides such upside to the CCP. --Similarly, in 1,100-plus words, the authors manage not a single mention of the united front apparatus, which plays a critical role fronting for Chinese intelligence and conducting political warfare on the PRC side of educational exchanges. They do not mention the CCP emphasis on leveraging foreign students to advance propaganda and economic goals, including attracting other countries' capital and technology while encouraging their governments' complacency. --Finally, they find no occasion to mention the CCP's surveillance and transnational repression of Chinese students inside the United States, a growing threat not only to these students but also to US sovereignty. In fairness, the authors have to leave out these inconvenient details so they can advance their completely backward proposal. At a time when the CCP is energetically recruiting (or luring) American students in order to strengthen its position vis-a-vis the United States, the authors do NOT suggest cutting off these flows. Rather, they argue that President Trump should negotiate with General Secretary Xi to secure "implicit assurances" not to detain or surveil US students in China so that we can send even more students. As if today's CCP intelligence state, which is all too active even on US soil, might be willing to "insulate from competitive dynamics" programs on their own soil that allow them to surveil and shape some of the Americans they're most interested in surveilling and shaping. This is as shrewd as telling the car salesman that there's no other car for you than the one you test drove, the only thing it's missing is an extended warranty, and you feel like you've known him forever. Just astonishingly counter-strategic from a US perspective - but helpful to the CCP. Sadly, it's typical of the arguments that have gotten the United States to the place where we find ourselves, having ceded so many of our advantages to the CCP through compliant engagement over decades. In this case, compliant engagement includes hand-waving about "understanding" (citing the example of a scholar who visited, and left, China before the CCP took over as evidence for the need to be on the ground in 2026) and regurgitating CCP slogans such as "people-to-people diplomacy." All while avoiding the aforementioned grubby and impolite - but stubborn! - facts essential to even a basic understanding of the situation. It's not as if the authors don't know any better. One of them moderated a CFR event last year where the speaker said: "And then there’s research in China by Americans. It’s very difficult. First of all, we only have 900 American students in the whole country right now. Being a student in China is not easy. Being a scholar trying to do research, the kind I’ve had to do, I’ve been a resident fellow in six different Chinese Academy of Social Sciences institutes in my career—six, more than any other foreigner I’m aware of. Well, that’s not possible today. You can’t go be a resident fellow in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, or any other place. And much less do interviews, archival research, libraries, field work. Just basic scholarly research. Can’t do it. That’s what I mean. Xi Jinping has securitized scholarship, amongst other things..." The other co-author - unsurprisingly - runs a non-profit that has for many years worked directly with CCP united front bodies, and lists a united front official as an advisor on its website. So... I will stand by for the inevitable exasperated sighs and ad feminam insults that seem to substitute for intelligent debate on this subject by defenders of the status quo. Cheers!
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I love the fact that the moment Britain receives command of the single largest maritime theatre within NATO, we elect to give it to an Army general. He’s a great choice but the irony isn’t lost on me.
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It is clearly staged.
It looks and feels spontaneous, but is it? A video of Ed Miliband having an apparently impromptu chat with Feroz Khan, an American social media influencer, on the streets of New York Khan is an American social media influencer who has made a name for himself conducting seemingly impromptu interviews with people he stops in the street with a simple question: “What do you do for a living?” The Miliband clips has already had more than 1million views. But is it real? In fact it has been carefully staged There are several clues. The video shows Khan stopping Miliband in the street as he makes his way between engagements. “Excuse me, you have an amazing outfit,” he tells him. “What do you do for a living?” Rather than walk on Miliband, surprisingly, stops and turns to face the camera. His aides, meanwhile, keep on marching on without even looking back to check who he is talking to. They don’t wait for him, disappearing out of shot Even for a politician, Miliband appears to have rather well-rehearsed answers for Khan’s questions. “Hang on you’re that Feroz guy aren’t you,” he says. “You interviewed JLo once. What are you doing here?” Khan replies with a compliment: “I spread positivity on social media and I happened to come across you well dressed. What do you do for a living?” In a surreal exchange Miliband says he is the foreign secretary of Great Britain. “Please forgive me, I don’t know what that is,” Khan replies “I’m like the Marco Rubio of Great Britain,” Miliband says. What follows is an extraordinarily soft interview on any level. Khan, who sees his job as “spreading positivity”, says: “Nice to meet you. What makes your work so special?” The final clue is in the post itself. Khan posted it on his Instagram in direct “collaboration” with the Foreign Office and Britain’s UN mission, meaning it went up on their Instagram accounts at exactly the same time thetimes.com/article/fd04b25…
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