Most will link the $IBIT reversal to fresh equity caution, but the 2.2% drop since the open has yet to touch rate-sensitive sectors or index breadth.

This market is genuinely difficult right now. Not because there's nothing to buy. The opposite. The setups are everywhere. $AMD $BE $MU $NBIS $PLTR $SOXX $MRVL $DOCN $ALAB $CRDO $COHR $GEV And the list goes on. But then you look at the indices. You look at breadth. And you have to be honest with yourself. You don't want to miss the squeeze. But you also don't want to be overexposed when it doesn't come. I will tell you what I'm doing- riding things I am up on. And hedging my longs.

Q4 2026 Preview Video - Four Reasons for a Q4 Rally

Rate sensitives like utilities could draw the most interest if the 80k GS print keeps policy easing in play despite alternative employment measures picking up.

Returns over the last 5 years... S&P 500 $SPY: +85% Nike $NKE: -75% Video: youtube.com/watch?v=GFl2yDa_…

Breadth is so freaking terrible that I suspect it can become a tailwind. Slight improvement and it will genuinely feel like you’re missing out on the next big move. Food for later

Compared to the long grind after 2009 that stretched well past the 5.5 year average, this cycle already at 4 years could reach the typical 180% gain and S&P 500 near 10,000 with less duration if breadth stays this narrow.

Changes in OI: 1) $KWEB big Monday flows with some small volume yesterday morning. We will see how these play out... 2) FWIW there was also some $JD flow last week - the 30c Dec 2027. 3) $LRCX calls opened Monday were slowly scaled out of yesterday. Trader still has a couple thousand of these left, but sold off a lot of the position yesterday. 4) $BIRK - all of yesterday's contracts held through the close.

It's remarkable how bad the media's coverage of OpenAI's business has been this year. Meanwhile, the company has been firing on all cylinders (1.2 billion ChatGPT users, with nearly $70B in exponentially accelerating ARR growth, and a steady stream of innovative new products). It really shows how many people have completely missed the story and can't see reality because they're addicted to inflated, sensational "OpenAI is dead/dying" click bait narratives. Subscribe my Substack for the accurate reporting and analysis. I just tell the truth.

Sneaky September. While the S&P $SPY is flat this month, the average stock in the S&P 500 is down about 5%.

"There's a little bit of Korean in me" - Jensen

Equal-weight names at 15x still sit well below the Nasdaq 100's 23x, so the valuation gap stays wide unless smaller caps start delivering better earnings growth than the leaders.

Some $MSFT 530c 10/9 opened Friday (bidside) probably getting closed here

I joined @TheDomino on @CNBCClosingBell to kick off the week on Monday. Laid out why a second half of September rally was likely. On the panel with @AAmoroso_1 and @StocktonKatie. Our discussion was one of the most viewed videos all week 🙏 👏 youtu.be/WBjpuNjFyks?is=xtTb…

Still talking. But if talks stop and Iran leaves New York City without a deal. Won't be good "Sept 28 (Reuters) - Qatari mediators are likely to hold talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York and separately with the US side on Monday or Tuesday, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters, in a fresh push to end the war. The talks are expected to focus on an amended version of a seven-day proposal that Iran presented last week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity."

Claude Sonnet 5.5 is live • Terminal-Bench 4.0: 70.6% • OSWorld 2.1: 80.1% • GDPval-AA: 1844 Opus 5.5 still leads most rows, but only by 1 to 3 points

USA USA. We're so back.

The tell for me is the S&P 500 equity risk premium staying positive versus Treasurys even after tightening, per GS. That setup holds unless real yields reprice higher and compress the gap from here.

The US Dollar has lost -23% of its purchasing power since 2020. In other words, if your assets are up +30% since 2020, you have effectively just broken even in real terms. Inflation has now been above the Fed's 2% target for 60-straight months, and the bond market knows this. Own assets or be left behind.

The projected swing in hyperscaler capex contribution to S&P 500 EPS growth from positive through 2027 into a drag by 2028 suggests the current earnings momentum may prove narrower than it appears unless other sectors start contributing more.