My Substack's stock ideas performance since inception. Thanks to @marketstackfeed for independent third-party verification

A line in Reuters' latest revised Iran war story: “US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.” CBS News just now: “Moments ago a US official told CBS that the Trump administration is having "positive and constructive discussions through the mediators."

Some of the headline framing that moves markets is ridiculous. This has been Iran's position the entire time. A phased deal first (lifting the blockade in exchange for reopening the Strait), followed by nuclear talks.

pod bros!

This @satyanadella interview by @alexeheath is FIRE

Satya says the AI agent era is the biggest total addressable market expansion EVER for Microsoft

I think investors are realizing there's going to be a LOT of competition in both the "OpenClaw for normies" and "OpenClaw for enterprise" spaces after Microsoft's OpenClaw announcement this morning. It's game on time. Meta shares are down 3.8%, while Microsoft stock is up 3.4% right now.

Microsoft is building on top of @openclaw Really cool. "We are building Autopilot on @openclaw"

Holy crap. OpenClaw personal AI agent for the Enterprise. Is this a Muse moment for Microsoft?

Spot on. "When we got attacked, our team initially turned to frontier closed-source APIs that blocked us because of safeguards that still can’t always tell the difference between attackers and defenders. I acknowledge that these safeguards are created with good intentions, but they can put defenders at a disadvantage while attackers jailbreak them, increasing the asymmetry of capabilities. In our case, as we started hitting those guardrails, fortunately we could use the @nvidia version of an open-source model" "Cyberattacks may increasingly come from proprietary models behind closed doors, while much of the defense may end up being powered by open-source tools because they are less restricted, more privacy-preserving, and orders of magnitude more affordable for organizations across the globe. The world needs open-source AI more than ever to defend itself." "during this cyberattack, we learned how AI can stoke fear among the public and policymakers, especially through anthropomorphic framing and sci-fi imagery." "We strongly believe that fear-based narratives are not the way to make the right decisions about the future of such a foundational and empowering technology or bring the public along with us." "Even though we were the victims of this cyberattack, we believe more strongly than ever that AI will be beneficial to cybersecurity and make the world safer, just as major technologies before it. We were attacked by AI, but more importantly, we defended ourselves with AI."

Ultra high power laser demand at Nvidia is ramping for December quarter. Spectrum-6 co-packaged optics biz above plan, according to Lumentum management Stifel: "Management said NVDA demand on LITE for high-power lasers has gone up meaningfully into year-end and for CY2027. Within that framework, LITE (at this point) will not be able to meet the incremental demand for the December quarter despite ramping as fast as it can." "management indicated NVDA December-quarter UHP demand has increased materially as Spectrum-6 CPO attach is tracking above prior plan"

Meta Muse is using 2 cores on an AMD EPYC server CPU

It's wild that the S&P 500 is less than 2% off its high when transports and consumer stocks look like this

Fabless chip company 🤦‍♂️

Frontier models have been used in major cyberattacks, while open-source models have been used for cyber defense. Maybe she should look at Reid Hoffman's financial incentives before amplifying this garbage argument. If she was a bit more competent, we wouldn't have Trump as President.