I wrote about the Citrini acquisition and which Substacks I would value the highest right now based on MarketStack data which tracks Substack revenue and growth via the bestsellers & rising rankings. @TMTBreakout @jbulltard1 @TradingWarz marketstack.substack.com/p/t…
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The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment. But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable. Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything? And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on. But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong? I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong?
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Bonds Fail=Trust in the System Fails=Fiat Fails= Metals Remonetized
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Thanks @marketstackfeed for hosting our weekly technical analysis show. Tune in on Wednesdays at 2PM ET.
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$USOIL Weekly Technical Analysis Thanks for hosting @marketstackfeed
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The more time I spend in niche Twitter, the more I realize that generalist investors are often right for the wrong reasons, and make money either through luck or an obnoxiously wide margin of safety.
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$TLT is currently testing its quarter century long support If I'm being honest, this is a brutal emotional experience. But emotion is a contrarian indicator. In my experience it's better to buy into pain at support and sell into resistance than escaping. No pain no gain
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Gosh, if only there was a KILLER book on the bond market that explained how it worked through the prism of its fascinating 900-year history.
US Treasury yields soar after strong data fuels bets on further rate rises ft.trib.al/JqF9G6Y
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Not saying $FSLY can't continue to rally in this environment, but I ran the math and impact to #s doesn't seem big at all. Agent browsing is heavy on requests and light on bytes. As FSLY's CEO put it this week, “agents aren’t watching videos yet.” Under our usage/pricing assumptions, each Muse daily user generates only ~1.5–5 cents in annual revenue before splitting traffic with Cloudflare. At 250M daily users, that’s ~$4–13M as sole carrier, or ~$2–6.5M with a 50/50 split. Stack every bullish assumption at 250M daily users and we get ~$35–60M, or 4–7% of FY27E revenue and roughly a 10% uplift to operating income. Reminder: FSLY fell 38% on May 7 after the last OpenClaw/agent run-up, when Network Services only grew a disappointing 11%. I know this different, jus pointing it out. Precedent: in 2021 Piper sized all of Apple’s iCloud Private Relay at $40–74M/yr, split across three CDNs. It never showed up as a visible step-change in FSLY's numbers. No position here, just know what you're getting into (Disclosure: I've been blown up on FSLY before)
Interesting $FSLY finding from testing Meta Muse. Through a series of hundreds of tests, it appears that the $FSLY role with Meta Muse is greater than analysts have noted Over the past week, I created several test websites and ran 738 controlled tests to send traffic from Muse agents to my websites I set up analytics on my website, and I was able to track things like IP address, user agent, operating system, etc From the IP addresses, across the 738 tests, Muse sent traffic from: -Cloudflare: 37.0% -Fastly: 29.3% -Meta: 19.4% -AWS: 14.4% Cloudflare is not a surprise – as there has been a lot of analyst commentary about Muse using Cloudflare. Fastly, on the other hand, was a surprising result I ran many different situations and tasks to try to understand why, or when, Muse sends traffic through Fastly – or others. And when I looked deeper, Muse used Fastly for 100% of the tests when browser navigation was required (e.g., “go to my favorite restaurant’s website and find me the menu”). And when Muse was requested to navigate on a website (e.g., make me a doctor appointment), Fastly was used in 100% of tests Then in other situations, for example when an API is involved or a curl request required, Cloudflare was used in 100% of tests Lastly, when requesting Muse to search the web, Muse split traffic through Fastly, Cloudflare, Meta directly, and AWS
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People are always going to use the max amount of leverage they can and wait till the last possible moment to unwind anything because they are competing against other people who are doing the same This is why providing liquidity to the market (traders) is such an important service. Liquidity functions as a mechanism that helps the creative-destructive process to occur as fast as possible so innovation growth remains high as well as puts a safety net in the system so illiquidity or financing isn't the reason that innovation stalls. Trading and liquidity provision have a much larger purpose than people would like to acknowledge.
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they gonna bring out the classic (and useless) S&P500 earnings yield vs. U.S. Treasury yield chart at this rate
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without a system in place all this option flow people post is meaningless. Here is my approach to it. jamesbulltard.com/p/why-my-r…
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Amazing how $INTC is also the top name by a mile in my database YTD in terms of bullish option flow, weird how that works
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FUNDA has been conducting in-depth research on $INOD for some time. Last year, we published several detailed reports examining how META’s acquisition of Scale AI would affect INOD, drawing on extensive expert interviews and technical discussions. Deep|The Scale AI Halo Effect Updates: INOD May Haved Raised Its Sales Target This Year fundaai.substack.com/p/deept… Deep|The Scale AI Halo Effect: Will Meta's Investment Lift the Other Boats, or Just the Leader? fundaai.substack.com/p/deept…
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yields up = the Fed's lost control of the market yields down = the Fed's manipulating the market hope that helps
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An architect-turned finance Substack bestseller is launching a new weekly show with MarketStackTV. @GreyRabbitFin will start live-streaming Ichimoku Technical Analysis, covering his universe of Metals, Miners & Macro - that includes gold, silver, platinum, miners, SPY, BTC, WTI & DXY - today! And every Wednesday at 2pm EDT / 7pm UK. Don't miss it. Watch on Substack -> open.substack.com/live-strea… Also streaming here on MarketStack X and of course marketstack.tv
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This is exactly what we are doing. FUNDA's Context Layer Platform has already converted our own EPS Excel Models into database format, and everything can be handed over to our proprietary agent for precise modifications.
This experience will only spread, in my view. The historical best practice to get smart on a name was read the filings, read the transcripts, and read a big stack of sell-side research, then model out the company. This hadn't really changed much in decades (outside of innovations in alternative data & expert network transcripts). Having a comprehensive offering of sell-side research was important at the institutional level. We have reached threshold on numerous fronts where a public market investor can achieve similar or deeper comprehension on a name with AI, and doesn't necessarily need that same comprehensive sell-side offering. That random sell-side report that went deep on a certain aspect of the business or industry can now be created with an AI agent sitting on the right data pipeline. One example I've shown in the past on DKNG...in the past, if I'm trying to get smarter & sharper on a deep dive on state level taxation, the right sell-side note dropping at the right time is supremely helpful. Now, I can run that analysis when I need it at the push of a button. The cohort of investors who build off of sell-side models will, very soon, be at push-button AI capabilities (and more may move modeling off Excel into JSON). The moat of the sell-side is melting. And I believe the sell-side has, collectively, overplayed their hand in being adversarial to the agentic path. My view is they will eventually fold, but not before many clients learn to build around the commercial friction and, maybe, eventually come to the same conclusion as Just Another Pod Guy. Like most things the top decile sell-side analysts will be fine, decades of investor trust and relationships will continue to monetize. But what happens to the 16th best analyst on a name? It think it's obvious the industry just needs fewer voices on a name, so how do you pivot? Corporate access has enduring value (if you don't believe it, be a fly on the wall when there is one seat at a key meeting and 5 pods wanting that same seat...). But I think it's deeper than that...how does the sell-side drive differentiated client insight? Not just regurgitate publicly available information (never much value, and now zero value). Cleveland Research to me is the working mental model of deep embedding of their analysts into the operational flow of industries driving a regular & valuable flow of investible insights.
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