There’s a very good reason why Google, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and even Nvidia are not competing with the frontier labs—and it’s the same reason the frontier labs started saying we need to slow down. It’s not because of safety or alignment (things they love to confuse).
Publicly traded companies have to account for how their spending relates to their profits in earnings reports. Google is not going to release a Gemini 3.9 or Gemini 4 until they have paid for Gemini 3.8. Releasing the next model obsoletes the model that came before and it kills the revenue capture on the training investment that round. It would create a cascade of perpetual profit deferment and it would show up on earnings.
OpenAI and Anthropic have been releasing fast. So fast that they are deferring revenue capture. It’s not as bad as Ed Zitron claims (he conflates API billing rates with compute cost), but the monthly plans are being slightly subsidized by the massive API bill rate margins on compute that enterprise consumers are paying. That subsidized monthly end user plan also helps capture valuable data for training the next model so the labs are getting a great deal on monthly plans too!
If the public traded companies were competing at the SoTA frontier level, they would be burning, billions and billions of dollars in order to fight a battle that they don’t have to fight because they are, in many cases, the infrastructure that everybody’s running this on: Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Microsoft—they win anyway. Instead, notice the models that Apple, Meta, and Nvidia are releasing as open weights. These models are focused on price reduction, speed, device compatibility, token efficiency, not on frontier intelligence. Publicly traded companies have an incentive to push the frontier labs into developing better models by releasing open weight models, always a little behind the next release that can be forced by the alternative pressure. You need to keep burning and deferring your billions or become obsolete. It’s a brilliant model to stay on the sidelines of the frontier game and continue being infra and consumers.
So why slow down? Eventually, even Anthropic and OpenAI can’t burn and defer profits forever, especially if they want to IPO. But they can’t (legally) collude to slow the releases of Claude and GPT—and it wouldn’t be enough collusion anyway because open weights will keep pushing. So what’s the answer?
Apocalypse! Quick, record a video of the model pushing a person off a building in a simulation, after we ask the model to do it! Let’s conflate safety with alignment and confuse the media. Let’s reopen the discussion that there’s a decent chance we all die from the technology that we’re building and that we need regulation. We need to be protected from open weight x-risk. We need all the labs to slow down so we can fund the development of the next model.