solana OG • crypto markets, narratives & internet finance
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I think the valuations of PONS, PAID, PUMP and STONK make more sense when you look beyond daily revenue and consider what people think they could become.
Being the main launchpad on a new chain, getting distribution through a huge platform, becoming the place everyone launches on. People price those possibilities in before the revenue catches up, sometimes way too early.
The real test comes when activity slows down. Can they keep users, bring volume back and keep making money? That’s when we find out how much of the valuation holds up 🤷🏻♂️
I need someone smarter than me (or dumber) to explain this to me here
I want to have a discussion on why $PONS went to 950 million marketcap, with no dips along the way, while having essentially no runners at all?
was it simply because as long as there is high comparable revenue to competitors, it doesn't matter if the coins launched on the launchpad have any sustainability?
or did the numbers not even matter because it was just getting an unlimited twap from Robinhood and market makers?
the reason I bring this comparison up is because $STONK, which has multiple coins above 10 million marketcap, has produced more major runners, and has a unique launch experience, has been going down only for a week now despite having decent runners
then $PAID went to 50 million marketcap all because of one singular runner that went to 20 million marketcap
if launchpads need new runners and consistent daily revenue for a buyer to care about it, then why does it matter for one coin but it doesn't matter for the other?
or does the market not care about runners and the only thing that matters is new launch stats and high daily revenue numbers?
I've been thinking about this a lot over the past week because I want to better understand how the market chooses to price things in 2026
everyone pretends to care about the daily revenue and metrics and rate of buybacks for coins that are linked to a platform
do metrics, revenue, launches, buybacks even REALLY matter?
do people even actually care about "owning the casino"? or do they just want to own the longest standing casino (HYPE and PUMP)
here's why I think PONS did well, so correct me if I'm wrong:
1) it was first mover on a new chain and had a founder who didn't rug
2) Robinhood needed its "pumpfun" and the chain chose to support PONS with an unlimited twap since it was the #1 launchpad coin
3) there was no other launchpad competition on Robinhood with a coin
so was it basically just strong daily revenue, a good amount of new pair launches on a daily basis, and a Robinhood listing that sent it to almost a billion?
and the fact that no one came close to competing with them outside of LONG (who doesn't have a token)?
moving forward, will people actually care about revenue or will they just pretend to care about it?
I know I asked a bunch of questions here, but as someone who likes to learn I want to understand what people care about and why they care about it
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Backpack lost 88% of its operating money when FTX collapsed. Two years later, @armaniferrante and the team bought FTX's European business.
Some thoughts on @Backpack:
The comeback
- Started as a wallet in 2022
- Lost most of their money in the FTX collapse
- Launched Mad Lads in 2023. If you were on Solana back then, you know
- Launched the exchange later that year
- Bought FTX EU in 2025
What they're building now
- Their own tokenized stocks on Solana
- Stocks and ETFs with perp markets can be used as collateral. Borrow USD or trade futures without selling your stocks
- Cash dividends now land in your account
Your stocks aren't just sitting there. They can pay you and back your crypto trades at the same time.
The $BP setup
- Only 25% of the supply is circulating
- Backpack says there's no allocation to investors or insiders
- Stake 1+ year and keep it staked, and if Backpack IPOs or gets acquired, eligible users can swap BP for equity
If tokenized stocks actually take off, Backpack is sitting right in the middle of it.
nfa
i like Backpack’s positioning around tokenized stocks on SOL
they took the slower route early, building out the exchange, compliance and regulatory infrastructure before pushing deeper onchain
that foundation matters more as tokenized equities start scaling, especially when users want a tighter connection between onchain assets and the underlying stocks
if tokenized stocks keep gaining traction on SOL, Backpack is one of the platforms i’m watching closely
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Can retweeted
KriptoK League is 3 rounds in.
2 newcomers made the top 5.
Our winner went back to back.
What excites me is seeing traders build a record that people can follow.
Now let’s see who shakes up the board in Round 4.
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Can retweeted
Web trading is live on KriptoK.
Live charts, order book and one-click orders — and every trade counts toward the League.
Watch a trader's positions with their permission and copy the setup. Your size, your order, your confirmation.
Follow traders, filter the leaderboard down to your people, and make your market call with polls that record the opening price.
Encrypted DMs and group chats with reactions, mentions and emoji. Block or report when needed.
Alerts in-app and in your browser: round starts, podium changes, liquidations.
See it all in action
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How much of this is skill, and how much comes from being visible enough that liquidity follows you?
Nothing about these positions has to be fake. But on a social trading app, visibility becomes an edge of its own.
A big win moves you up the leaderboard, the leaderboard brings more followers, and those followers are watching whatever you buy next.
At that point, it becomes hard to separate trading skill from the audience behind the trade.
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Social trading can bring a lot of retail onchain, but I still don’t know if it is sustainable when 94.4% lose money.
The winners are all over the timeline. The people who leave after getting burned are much harder to see.
Over the last 60 days, 94.4% of traders on @fomo lost money.
So it clearly isn’t as profitable as you think.
Out of the 5.6% who finished net positive:
→ 22,746 made <$100
→ 2,032 made $100–$500
→ 1,182 made more than $500
→ 74 made $5K+
So only ~0.25% of all traders made more than $500.
The high PnLs you constantly see on your timeline come from a tiny minority of traders. And a majority are still making a profit either by using copy traders or with insider info.
Either way, those screenshots don’t represent reality.
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A few years from now, an analyst might have to explain why a Nasdaq stock moved because a memecoin community coordinated around its tokenized pair onchain.
That sounds ridiculous, but the pieces are already here: tokenized stocks, DEXes, perps and social trading apps. The JINQIAN and Farmmi situation may be the first version of it.
If this continues, funds may eventually have to track wallets, CT attention and onchain flows alongside traditional data.
Prediction: When these instruments reach critical mass, we’ll have institutions (funds, for example) that include their memetic reflexivity into their models of real world assets.
Fuel to the fire.
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The JINQIAN and Farmmi example I mentioned earlier:
This is where RWA memes get genuinely interesting.
A community rallying around a Nasdaq penny stock to keep it above the delisting threshold makes much more sense to me than simply pairing a meme with a mega-cap stock.
The manipulation risk is also impossible to ignore.
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This is where RWA memes get genuinely interesting.
A community rallying around a Nasdaq penny stock to keep it above the delisting threshold makes much more sense to me than simply pairing a meme with a mega-cap stock.
The manipulation risk is also impossible to ignore.
I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing...
But a memecoin is currently trying to short squeeze a penny stock thats listed on the NASDAQ to try to prevent it from getting delisted...
Farmmi received a notice today that they have until Feb 8th 2027 to trade above $1 or risk being delisted from the NASDAQ.
The memecoin $JINQIAN is paired to it, and it appears it is actually having direct impact on the penny stock...
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Base had almost every advantage a new chain could ask for: Coinbase’s brand, distribution, users, developers and a massive head start.
It should have been the obvious place to bring retail onchain.
Instead, Robinhood Chain is already showing what happens when distribution is paired with a narrative people actually want to trade. Pons generating more daily fees than Pump, even for one day, is hard to ignore.
Base can still recover, but so far it feels like one of the biggest wasted opportunities in crypto. Huge disappointment.
Pons generated more fees in the last 24 hours than Lido, Axiom, Aave, and Fomo COMBINED.
Robinhood Chain is now the #2 chain by app revenue, behind only Solana.
Base could never...
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This is why $CASHCAT still looks like the strongest of the three to me.
It spent much longer consolidating, and the holder distribution looks a lot healthier.
"Robinhood is still early" has become a consensus take all over ct.
Especially with multiple coins holding 200m+ market cap at once and equity pair "betas" doing 8 figures.
But there is a problem with a bet everyone agrees on.
A lot of the new flows are coming from borrowed conviction instead of real funded conviction.
That way every little dip can turn into a huge flush because borrowed conviction bought on the belief of it going up endlessly. Once the music turns off the realization kicks in.
That's why eventually a flush is needed to distribute supply into the right hands again. Whether that happens now or in a month doesn't matter. Your mission is to bid the dips and sit on your hands until the coins go up again.
When looking at the "big three" on rh (Cashcat, Pons and AI) a huge share of the top 500 wallets are "fresh money" meaning they have accumulated their position less than 14 days ago.
This doesn't necessarily reveal that these wallets are buying with borrowed conviction but it creates an idea of how the supply is distributed.
The coin with the most long term holders here is Cashcat with a 78.4% share. This makes sense when looking at the chart as well. This is precisely the reason why its the safest bet on a dip too.
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Solana Summit Serbia is a wrap.
Met and spoke with hundreds of incredible people, shared what we’re building at KriptoK and the vision behind it, and somehow got so caught up in everything that I barely took any photos or videos. Rookie mistake.
Huge props to @SuperteamBLKN for putting together an amazing event. Had a great time in Belgrade.
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