Here is a nice review of my book in Library Journal: libraryjournal.com/review/sh… Please consider pre-ordering! amazon.com/Shock-Values-Infl…

Measuring expectation uncertainty in surveys is hard. A new @nberpubs by @cconces and coauthors shows that probabilistic expectations can bunch at one outcome because of task burden and survey administration. 1/3

#DailyLincoln #68 Lincoln famously used his hat as a file cabinet. Once, in 1850, he confessed to another lawyer: "I am ashamed of not sooner answering your letter, herewith returned; and, my only appologies are, first, that I have been very busy in the U.S. court; and second, that when I received the letter I put it in my old hat, and buying a new one the next day, the old one was set aside, and so, the letter [was] lost sight of for a time." Now his hat is a @Crayola color!

🎉 Happy Constitution Day! ✍️🏽 Today marks the signing of the U.S. Constitution on September 17, 1787. It is the greatest secular document ever written. 📜 The Constitution endures not because it is perfect, but because every generation has chosen to keep it, to adapt it to their needs, and to call it their own.

Happy Constitution Day!! Don't take your freedoms for granted🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

I greatly appreciate the @bde_Research awesome data and team that made this project possible. I hope anyone who works with density forecasts will benefit from the paper.

To get causal evidence, we evaluated an intervention in the EFF that pushed interviewers to ensure a proper understanding of probabilistic expectations. The result? A large 15-pp drop in bunching. True uncertainty is often hidden behind correctable survey artifacts. 📉

New WP with Carola Binder, Laura Crespo, Carlos Gento, and Ernesto Villanueva! Economic uncertainty is crucial but notoriously hard to measure. Probabilistic survey questions are the gold standard, but we show they can systematically misrepresent it. 🧵👇 nber.org/papers/w35733

I love this review so much! @BryanPCutsinger perfectly captures what I was trying to do with my book.

'Shock Values' traces how Americans have argued about prices and inflation from the colonial period to the aftermath of the pandemic, and how those arguments reshaped courts, coalitions and the machinery of government. @BryanPCutsinger reviews @cconces theceme.substack.com/p/shock…

This is racist and sinful rhetoric that seeks to harm and to divide. It is disturbing that it comes from a candidate for public office. An apology is called for. @FWdiocese @NTCatholic @TXCatholic @USCCBGovRel #Txlege

Great advertising. A key skill in civic leadership is maintaining a friendly smile while shaking hands with hundreds of people. Dyer is clearly the man for the job.

It's umpire, ref, AND player all in one.

1/ New paper with @siriterjesen: we checked whether the accreditors that certify medical, dental, nursing, and law schools are actually independent from the professions they regulate. Short answer: 88% of the time, they're not. They're the SAME organization. 🧵

Berry wrote many things that are dear to me, but this has always remained the most: "Ask yourself: Will this satisfy a woman satisfied to bear a child?"

Curious about life’s biggest questions and what makes an education worth pursuing? Whether you visit us in Austin or connect from home, there are several ways to discover what sets SCL apart. Join us tomorrow for a virtual information session at 7PM tomorrow to learn about SCL’s mission, academic programs, faculty, student life, and more. You'll also be able to speak with SCL student ambassadors to hear firsthand what it is like to be an SCL student. Sign up today to reserve your spot! utexas.pulse.ly/bee0nwj6bf

"Our Review, as its name points out, is to be Catholic and American. Its aim, therefore, will be to explain and defend the Catholic theory of revealed Truth, ... It shall be our endeavor also to show the practical development and working of Catholic principle in the history of the world, in the lives of great and good men, and in the destinies of nations." So begins the Salutatory in the first issue of The American Catholic Quarterly Review (ACQR), published January 1876, auspiciously, in the centenary year of the nation’s founding. I could not be more thrilled to announce that today @GibbonsCUA @CatholicUniv relaunches the esteemed American Catholic Quarterly Review. Read and subscribe! open.substack.com/pub/acqr/p…

For many years I have been a prolific referee (multiple papers per month, at least) because I read the papers and take notes on my phone before writing the report. This is disappointing and hopefully only temporary, @ElsevierConnect.

Romer and Romer add that a "monetary policy strategy lesson is that inflation is harmful even if inflation expectations do not become unanchored...inflation that threatens to become long-lived potentially warrants a response, regardless of the behavior of expectations..."

I would say that it was the forward guidance combined with lack of communication about reaction function under the AIT framework that together posed the problem. Plus, lack of understanding of "transitory" (or not) nature of inflation at that time.