We continue to see some remarkable early voting data out of North Carolina. Voters who sat out 2024 are still D+46 (!!) in cumulative two-party registration and it's barely moving to the right. Republicans are disproportionately drawing their votes from high-propensity voters, but are still lagging badly in turning out those voters overall.
Things can certainly change, and some reversion toward historical patterns is often what we see when the initial data are this extreme. But this is starting to resemble what we saw in Florida in 2022, only with the parties reversed.
I'm not surprised that NRCC Chair Richard Hudson has directed funding toward his own Trump+16 district. Cooper carrying the seat certainly not out of the question at this point.
North Carolina Early Vote Tracking 🌲
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total early votes: 904,271 - 717,763 (+186,508)
22.9% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 Roy Cooper: 57.8% - 67.3%
🔴 Michael Whatley : 30.7% - 40.2%
Remaining votes in NC will be much more Republican. We rate this race as Likely D.