We just ran some numbers on
$usde for
$ena - usde supply is the main catalyst for Ethena price and it's growing rapidly right now.
We also factored in the btc price and it's effect on usde supply and Ethena price again.
The first part is where we factored in the supply and funding:
$0.25–0.30: Usde $10B, but funding remains average.
$0.35–0.50: $10B USDe + a genuine bull funding environment, roughly 10–15% protocol revenue yield..
~$0.55–0.80: USDe starts moving toward/through $15B and the 15% take becomes credible/active while funding remains strong.
~$0.80–1.10+: $15B is sustained, protocol revenue yield resembles a very strong historical bull environment, and the market simultaneously gives ENA ~40–50% of HYPE’s cash-flow multiple.
Our assumption of 40x multiple is still lower than 50x+ of CRCL, and ~150x of HYPE. We assign discount to HYPE's multiple as earnings are cyclical.
What I love about this trade is they you can have realistic maths based targets and not just some fugazi numbers made out of thin air.
This is probably the highest confidence trade you'd come across in current market.
Remember this is purely maths based and does not price in the euphoria and shilling. So in real you can 1.5x - 2x the price targets.