When we started investing in African stablecoin startups in 2023, one of our core theses was that we don't know what would happen re: regulations, but that the technology was so effusive that it would force a K-shaped result.
At that time, it was taboo to even say the word "stablecoin" in a central bank meeting. But amidst the ridicule, the crackdowns, the refusals, the userbase just kept growing.
Today, we have portfolio companies who are moving billions a year, crossing 8-figure revenues, and getting licensed. More importantly, they've unlocked productivity for an untold amount of African businesses.
Our thesis is now at a milestone. African governments have been forced to the table and are now testing how to regulate, tax, and monitor these flows. Development finance is starting to come onboard (which is the signal for consensus).
This shifts our ecosystem into a new phase of compliant institutionalization (a global trend), but also into dangerous territory where heavy-handed regulation/greed will drive volumes back into the shadows.
Crypto is allergic to control and over-aggression does not shut off the flow. It simply drives the other side of the K-shaped result.