prediction markets, programming, ball knowledge

almost there
I built a tool to view your own lifetime Kalshi career stats. It goes through every resolution, order, and trade you've ever made. + a typescript client to access any of your Kalshi trading data. Build off of it or share your results. github.com/dkgitcode/kalshi-…
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Turns out it pays to scroll twitter all day. Sniped the echo acquisition a minute after the news broke.
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Replying to @honeyNonABG

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SF startup scene rn
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Replying to @thejay

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Excited to announce that likely.so will be merging into @KairosLiveHQ! They’ve built the most performant prediction market trading module in the world, and our research tooling will take it even further. Looking forward to trading the future with unparalleled speed.
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Kalshi FC we here

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I'm sorry @aulijk but I may have just automated you. See the top markets + analytics on any day in history at kalshidata.com/time-machine
top trending Kalshi markets today: - who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? - what will Trump say during the Cabinet Meeting? - how long will the government shutdown last? - will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? what markets did I miss?
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Notional volume has gone parabolic since the week I started posting about Kalshi. #noticing see evidence at kalshidata.com
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Replying to @hannieburton

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30% of all time volume was accounted for in September alone. Just 3 days in, October volume is already greater than February of this year. Hammer the YES.
Prediction: Kalshi volume will double by EOY @RemindMe_OfThis in 3 months
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Chicago Bears market looks like my heart rate holy shit why must I go thru this every Sunday
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How PMT moving
Excited to be joining @KalshiEco I first discovered prediction markets over a year ago and was immediately hooked. This began a year-long obsession where I compulsively followed markets, trying to find edge and learning what was behind price movements. As an accountant for my day job, and a poker/horse racing player on the side - I was already obsessed with numbers and probabilities which made these markets feel like home. The allure of prediction markets was clear: anyone could become an expert in a domain and be rewarded handsomely. What's more, almost every other avenue currently available to consumers is designed to set you up for failure. Sportsbooks are nearly unbeatable because of the house edge you're competing against and they'll limit you if you're actually a winning player. If you're trying to outperform the stock market, you'll be competing against incredibly sophisticated, well-capitalized institutional players and are more likely to lose money than outperform. Prediction markets like Kalshi are still in their infancy, which means clever, everyday people who develop expertise in a niche can be rewarded monetarily. Just listen to a couple of the interviews I've done with top Kalshi traders who have made over six figures predicting anything from Rotten Tomatoes movie scores and Spotify song rankings to the exact words someone will say in a speech. Kalshi doesn't ban profitable traders; they celebrate them for making markets more efficient. They use the wisdom of markets to reveal clear, data-driven probabilities on events shaping the world. We live in an era of divisiveness. It’s hard to know the truth with biased pundits on mainstream television and misinformation rampant on social media. Media incentives have shifted toward whatever gets clicks and plays to viewers’ existing beliefs. Kalshi offers a new way forward: achieving truth through free markets. Who do you trust more? Someone with an opinion or someone confident enough to put money behind it? I believe prediction markets have the potential to reshape media and the way people understand the world. I couldn’t be more excited to play a part in that.
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It's 3am in Spain and I got class in the morning. I'm staying up to see if the south park episode mentions "labubu". We are not the same. You have to want it.

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Replying to @hannieburton

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Which of you idiots is betting on the south park episode to mention "labubu"? It's fools like these that give me confidence that I can be a winning trader.
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Snagged a live bet with great odds Dallas is now sitting pretty at a solid 54% fair value!
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It seems like their API is showing different data than their frontend, I think its actually supposed to be $500 per market.
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Replying to @optionsly
Gotcha. @chefsteve I've found a bug lol
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Caleb Williams YOU are the future.
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Replying to @hannieburton
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Kalshi quietly just started rolling out their rewards program. So this weekend, I built out a frontend to illustrate some of the available data in the Kalshi API -- including rewards information. kalshidata.com/rewards
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Replying to @aulijk

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This summer I built an AI NBA search engine to find any play with a natural language query; but, I ultimately couldn't do much with it without NBA's approval. Does anyone have any NBA connections? I see a solid use case for editors, analysts, and players.
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Replying to @probabilitygod

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Replying to @hannieburton

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I had about 150 followers under one month ago. Whatever you are working on, just post it.
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Replying to @mnhynp @Kalshi

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Bro what are you smoking 😂, I started working on this a while back, and @carlosindex02 himself showed support. And thank you for valuing my project at 20m, that’s very kind.
the crime is crime likely.so (launching with a 20m valuation) is copy paste of @ArbBets20 (300k) 😭. they even copied the layout and themes 💀. much higher for $arbbets from here.
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Replying to @PredMTrader
we here
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Replying to @hannieburton
I gotchu
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Free arbitrage (bc I'm generous) likely.so just found a huge arbitrage. I already bought out most of the contracts that I could afford. Y'all can take what's left.
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Replying to @hannieburton
what’s up hannieburton

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Replying to @Amandyks @amandyks
“real football” = watching nothing for an hour and a half to end with a pen from poh palah
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Replying to @j0hnwang @Kalshi

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LET RUSS COOK.
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Introducing likely.so, a @Kalshi all-in-one research platform with: - Agent that can research and explain any market - High-activity news scanner that explains volatility - Arbitrage finder between prediction markets Join the waitlist at likely.so
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Replying to @GaetenD
Not bullish enough

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I am sorry.
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I love a good emotional hedge. If Sinner wins: I'm sad, but $44 richer. If Alcaraz wins: I paid $56 to see him win. ¡Vamos Carlos!
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I made a few updates to my @Kalshi research tooling: 1. Added a high activity news scan to contextualize large price changes. 2. Chat now cites its sources and provides more accurate responses. 3. Implemented a token system + auth to make sure my wallet doesn't get rinsed. There's no reason why prediction market UI's can't be information dense while still accessible. Instead of wondering why a new candidate is leading, that information can be embedded into the experience. @Foster discussed with @PredMTrader that the biggest mistake for new traders is lack of context in markets regarding rules and prices. My tooling aims to improve the experience for these traders. I already have onboarded a few people, will gradually be bringing on more people (those who have dm'd/replied and so on).
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Replying to @InternAtKalshi
our secret weapon

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