Founder @truflation Real-time on-chain inflation - Calling out the narratives Governments tell us about prices.

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New York’s $36B attack on Kalshi isn’t about “protecting consumers." Who’s allowed to turn information into economic value and taxing participation in the process. Why prediction markets are not casinos, how they function as information infrastructure.
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Stop Calling It Gambling: Prediction Markets Are How Everyone Enters the Economy

New York’s $36B case against Kalshi is being sold as a consumer-protection crusade. In reality, it’s a protection program for a monopoly: a monopoly on who is allowed to participate meaningfully in

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listen to this. Strong echo of what @finkd and @JensenHuang are saying!
Yann LeCun: we are not going to get human-level intelligence or AGI by just scaling LLMs. “There’s absolutely no way in hell.” “The idea that we’re gonna have a country of geniuses in a data center, that’s complete BS.” “It may feel like you have a PhD sitting next to you.” “But it’s not a PhD.” “It’s a system with gigantic memory and retrieval ability, not one that can invent solutions to new problems.”
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Stefan Rust retweeted
Former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon became a media superstar after going public with his AI fears. He insisted that he wasn’t working with any third party organizations. Familiar sources told us a different story: DEY., a PR firm representing many of the most prominent AI safetyists, was booking his interviews. One source, who had direct knowledge, even said DEY. preemptively booked Nate Soares, a prominent AI safety figure, for interviews that directly overlapped with Jacob going public. Jacob working with DEY. is notable for two reasons: first, as mentioned, he previously said he wasn’t working with third parties. Second, we are in the middle of a national conversation about the future of AI that is actively determining how we regulate the most powerful technology in the world, largely thanks to the panic stirred up by Jacob — and it’s in the public’s interest to know who, exactly, is behind it. Scoop from @huntryerson 👇
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DARIO AMODEI, I genuinely do not understand this. You go before the United Nations warning the world about what increasingly powerful AI could do to humanity, including the risks around biology, and calling for governments to regulate it. Then, on the very same day, Anthropic announces its own biology research group and laboratory, using Claude to accelerate biological discovery. How do you reconcile those two positions? You are asking the world to put boundaries around this technology while your own company keeps pushing that same technology deeper into increasingly powerful areas. Do the rules you are asking governments to create apply equally to Anthropic? Because that is the part I cannot understand. You cannot repeatedly tell the public, “This technology could become extraordinarily dangerous. We need rules, safeguards and oversight,” while simultaneously racing to expand what your own models can do. And then when those systems discover something new, the answer cannot simply be: we found something interesting, and now we need to understand what it can do. This is exactly why people are questioning the integrity of the message. If the risks are as serious as you say they are, then the companies building these systems should be the first to demonstrate the restraint they are asking from everyone else. Otherwise, people are going to ask the obvious question: Are these rules meant to govern AI — or only everyone else’s AI?
Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei warned the UN that AI could be used to make bioweapons. The same day, Anthropic announced a biology lab for its AI. Dario Amodei told the UN Security Council that AI could be a danger to all of humanity. He said in one or two years, maybe less, AI could be like a country full of geniuses. And he named bioweapons as one of the biggest risks. It all sounds nice. But this is my question to him. You're worried AI could be a disaster, yet you're building a lab for the same AI you're warning the world about. Are we supposed to trust you? Or are you saying you're the only sane person who can put AI to work on biology? The easiest way AI could wipe out humanity is through a bio lab. You named bioweapons as a top risk yourself. By your own words, this AI is advanced and dangerous. And now you're giving it the tool it would need. What are you playing at?
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Yup
I can't right now babe, new Peter Thiel interview just dropped, sorry. piped.video/B7yl7fEHeKM?is=hIYW…
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Stefan Rust retweeted
This is Dieter Schwarz - the owner of Lidl, the richest man in Germany, one of the richest people in the world. Only two known photos exist of him, zero video footage, and he's never given an interview. He is an extremely dedicated philanthropist, having put billions mostly into educational causes. He lives in Heilbronn, in Germany, and has transformed the area into an educational/tech/research hub, as well as funding educational activities at Oxford, HEC Paris, Stanford and many others. Technically, he doesn't actually own Lidl any more, as he set up 'The Dieter Schwarz Foundation' - a charity - which owns the Schwarz Group, the parent company of Lidl. In other words, Lidl is owned by a charity that ploughs lots of money into educational causes - and yet Lidl never use any of that in advertising. One of the most successful, interesting people on earth, and nobody even knows what he looks like any more.
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From Census Bureau (for August): New home sales 684K; up 6.4% from July. All 👀 on the PCE. Get your daily dose of macro in your inbox with Truman.
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True investment that is adding infrastructure and significant contributions to GDP
Total investment in data centers and related AI infrastructure is projected to total $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032, or 3.6% of GDP per year, according to new estimates. That would dwarf other huge U.S. infrastructure projects such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet.
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Will you get one of these too?
Palmer Lucky in the trailer??? I’m sold, I need these.
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Have you signed up yet? truflation.com/t-1 @truflation
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2 forecasts for the price of 1 subscription. You get the forecasts 24 hours before the print!
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Get @truflation forecast 24 hours before the PCE print truflation.com/t-1
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here here
Indeed. Russia has no reason to invade declining and replaced Europe. The Western elites however are greedy for Russian resources.
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For all the AI doomers…
Well this is interesting. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggest AI firms could be seeking liability protections for harms their products may cause. “Go and read between the lines. They're actually not asking for more laws. They're asking to be relieved of the laws we do have, and I I think that that's a problem.”
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Thank you @alextapscott really enjoyed this!
Episode 249: Economic TruthMaxxing with Stefan Rust of Truflation @alextapscott @fiftyfly @truflation @CMCC_Global 0:00 Introduction 3:59 "Transitory" and the case for a better number 5:37 Real-time, verifiable, and written to a blockchain 6:52 Why nobody built this sooner — and the $130 trillion tied to CPI 9:47 41 days ahead of the government (70 during COVID) 13:45 Oil, the Iran war, and where we are in the cycle 15:33 Going live on FRED, and what the Fed actually watches 18:38 Trimmed mean, $15 eggs, and the 40% nobody reports 20:27 Inflation as a hidden tax 24:18 Building macro data for an agentic market 28:57 Revisions, edits, and the frozen index 29:55 Why Bitcoin and gold traded like risk assets 33:00 The Genius Act, stablecoins, and borrowing costs 39:06 Where to learn more
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Good real life case studies why we need to continue to fight for free speech and why trust in government continues to decline! @bgurley. We need more alternative sources of truth
All-In Summit: Bill Gurley (0:00) Bill Gurley takes the stage at the All-In Summit (1:29) Bill's Presentation: Searching for Feynman Links to additional resources mentioned in talk and used in research: p3.institute/searching_for_f… @bgurley
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$AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio hit stores Tuesday 9/22. M6 and M5 Ultra put Apple’s desktop AI bet to the test. Will agentic Macs drive a new upgrade cycle? What is your prediction? @truflation truflation.com/markets/eps-a…
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$META Meta Connect keynote is Wed. 9/23. Zuckerberg will reveal what’s next in AI glasses, VR and AI. Can the next platform move the stock? What is your prediction? @truflation truflation.com/markets/eps-m…
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nice graph on the importance of crypto rails and how obsolete technology HODL's with regulatory capture
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