The economic primitive for pricing numerical outcomes. Build markets on anything measurable, for apps, desks and traders
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functionSPACE has raised $1.7M in pre-seed funding to build the economic primitive for pricing numerical outcomes, led by @Maven11Capital and @blockwall_vc with participation from @smape_capital.
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functionSPACE has raised $1.7M in pre-seed funding to build the economic primitive for pricing numerical outcomes, led by @Maven11Capital and @blockwall_vc with participation from @smape_capital.
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functionSPACE retweeted
Today's prediction markets are flawed by design. @functionspaceHQ is introducing the market infrastructure that allows for the full expression of opinions and information. Here is our thesis:
functionSPACE has raised $1.7M in pre-seed funding to build the economic primitive for pricing numerical outcomes, led by @Maven11Capital and @blockwall_vc with participation from @smape_capital.
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Come join us on this talk with our friends hosted by @PeanutTrade.
🎙️Peanut market talks:
Prediction Markets: Gold Rush or Startup Graveyard?
🗓️ Sep 22 - 4pm CET
🎤 Host: @amomot86
💎 Speakers:
@AugurProject (Speaker: @AugusLSN)
@delphiai_lab
@functionspaceHQ
@kash_bot
@predicttime_ (The one who speaks: @klimonchain)
@Agg_Market
@TrendleFi (Co-founder: @philtsa)
@DemetherDeFi
@arespro
🔔Notifs on
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functionSPACE is a research and development venture first.
Risk architects, physicists, mathematicians, engineers, data and product people. Out of @Nethermind , @SkyEcosystem (MakerDAO), @BanxaOfficial and @synthetix.
Pricing a whole distribution is a research problem. We staffed it like one.
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We love any and all innovation at the mechanism and product layers.
Check out the "WHEN not IF" markets from our friends at @rocketmarketsfi - they give you the ability to hold uncertainty as an asset.
Every second pays
Rocket Markets is LIVE on Monad
Welcome to the first ever time-based prediction market
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Prediction Index v2 is live 🪶
We've been mapping the prediction market ecosystem for a while now. 315+ projects, $110B in volume tracked. As the market matures, we think the volume story is well told. The more interesting story is calibration, or how well these markets actually read the world.
@Kalshi studied 2M+ of its own markets and found events priced at 70% happen about 70% of the time. @Polymarket's published accuracy runs 90% a month out (98.5% four hours out).
In v2, we turn PredictionIndex into a prediction market research desk and AI-native index provider. Our indices read what the crowd is pricing and ask frontier AI the same questions. We cover geopolitics, finance, compute, gaming, sports and culture.
In the coming weeks, for traders, expect research, video, contrarian views, plus the takes we'll probably regret later. For builders, we'll publish deep dives into a handful of projects we think are worth watching closely.
All of it, in your inbox 👉 predictionindex.xyz
ps. sound on for teaser 🔥
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For crypto founders, the biggest lesson from @fomo and @Pumpfun ascendance is that the distribution model of the last 5 years for apps is moot.
Web3 is dead, wallet connect is dead, dApps are dead.
The new plan is vertically integrated mobile: hide the crypto mechanics entirely. Single balance across chains, integrated onramp (Apple Pay is king), no bridges, no seed phrases or private keys (sign in with Google or X).
For wallet apps themselves, this presents an existential crisis. The user demands simplicity & the feeling of safety. In the past, your wallet was a gateway to crypto. Now, I hold a deposit in each app I use and I don't yet care if they talk to each other.
As always, we go through bundling and unbundling cycles. If Phantom and Jupiter and Metamask were bundling, we are now seeing a great unbundling.
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functionSPACE retweeted
After years of working on crypto policy issues (on the Hill, in DeFi, now @crypto_council) and investing in tokens and startups it's disorienting to see the pace at which cutting edge things are being addressed by the US gov.
Three incredible things this week:
- POTUS touts the effort to bring "@HyperliquidX into the United States" at the White House
- SEC drops long awaited Reg Crypto to enable compliant token capital raises
- CFTC asks for comment on compute futures including via perpetuals
And we still don't have Clarity. We've got to get this done. Can't let this moment slip.
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The team @SynthdataCo are both pioneers and innovators. This is an important bit of analysis about the power of well built trading infrastructure, concentrating liquidity to upend where price discovery happens.
Frontier Markets.
1/ Synth's HFT team has found that @Kalshi’s 15-min BTC market is beginning to predict subsequent BTC moves on @binance and all other CEXs.
And strength of this predictive relationship has grown materially throughout 2026 (see image).
@Kalshi is becoming the venue for BTC price discovery on short time horizons.
🧵
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propspace.fun is an experiment and live-proof that novel prediction market experiences do not necesserily need to come from trading new underlying's- there loads of design space across the stack
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