TOP FIVE NEWS OF THE WEEK
1. Prediction markets are racing toward a trillion
On September 18, Reuters Breaking views published a column arguing the prediction markets industry is rapidly maturing into a full financial asset class, with volumes potentially topping a trillion dollars by 2030, citing Bernstein's estimate. The same piece flags a detail on Kalshi: its valuation could soon approach $40 billion, nearly doubling in just a few months
2. Polymarket poached Zora's co-founder
On September 17,
@shayne_coplan announced on X that Jacob Horne, co-founder and former CEO of
@zora, is joining Polymarket to work directly with him on product, starting with the onchain and DeFi side. Coplan admitted the DeFi product had weakened as the company scaled, and longtime users felt it had been abandoned. A dedicated DeFi town hall is coming to gather feedback
3. Polymarket is turning into a media company
On September 16, WIRED reported that Polymarket now sends news-style email newsletters, runs active social accounts, has partnerships with Dow Jones and Substack, and produces a podcast with Dear Media. Kalshi is answering in kind with its own deals through CNN, CNBC, and Fox. Prediction markets are looking less like exchanges and more like newsrooms running on live odds
4. Google released Gemini 3.8 Live
On September 15, Google unveiled Gemini 3.8 Live and the Extended Thinking version, which it calls its most advanced live dialogue models yet. Extended Thinking can run multi-step reasoning in the middle of a live voice conversation, without interrupting the exchange while background tasks finish
5. Anthropic is prepping an answer to Astra, a week after calling for a slowdown
On September 18, Reuters reported, citing three sources, that Anthropic is considering a new model release to keep pace with OpenAI after the launch of GPT-6 Astra, ahead of its expected IPO. Just a week earlier, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei had publicly urged the entire industry to slow the pace of development for safety's sake. Reuters notes the competitive pressure appears to be winning out over that same call