Busy week. Dem sweep odds went from 53% to 61%. Flávio Bolsonaro from 33% to 59% in a month. The Fed hiked, unanimously, against my thesis. And the CDU just missed the 5% threshold in a German state. But we have something to hope for: UNGA week is the last realistic window for a peace effort before the midterms, and the blockade market is only at 37%. New Global Outlook is out 👇

We’ve published an article on the trading strategies and current positions of Mike S. @prophet_notes, a verified @PolymarketTrade trader

Bryan is reinventing cuddling from first principles

I’m live on @predicttime_ soon to talk my book and give some of my thoughts on the recent Fed decision. You can’t miss it!

Polls closed in Russia's parliamentary election with United Russia set to sweep seats across all regions. Independent monitors deemed the results predetermined by Putin's regime. Putin framed the wartime vote as a test of support for the Ukraine invasion. United Russia to gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election hit 99% on Polymarket, up 18 points in 24 hours. It was always clear that Putin would rig the election. The extent of the rigging was unclear. Turns out, some of the sharp traders saw that coming and piled on Yes in the weeks ahead of the election.

The Houthis announced they will not attack US vessels in the Red Sea, a shift from their campaign targeting shipping in the waterway. The group has conducted attacks on commercial and military vessels since late 2023, citing solidarity with Palestinians. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Polymarket dropped 2 points in 24h to 19%. With US vessels exempt, no blockade can effectively drop the traffic below 10 ships per day. I expect traders to reprice the market more to the downside.

Im going on Prediction Time next week. Tune in to hear some thoughts about my recent Fed loss and what I’m looking at right now!

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey and other countries have submitted new conditions to the US and Iran to end the war. Fidan cited strong distrust between the parties after a Pakistan agreement collapsed during implementation. Both sides are now trying to clarify their positions, he told NTV. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31 stands at 3% on Polymarket, flat in the last 24h. The global energy supply situation begs for a peace deal, but for now traders see little chance of progress. After dozens of deal announcements, they are numb to new developments, unless tangible progress is reported.

Trump announced Friday that the US reached an Arctic security pact with Denmark and Greenland allowing expanded US military presence. Trump called it "permanent control" over Greenland security. Denmark and Greenland said the deal preserves their sovereignty and Greenland's right to self-determination. Full terms were not disclosed; leaders indicated an agreement would be signed soon. Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31 jumped to 94% on Polymarket, up 79 points in 24 hours. The September 23 leg sits at 60%, suggesting traders expect formalization within days of Friday's announcement. It was a difficult market to price as we had no news on the progress along the way. Now at least the situation is clear.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has informed European refiners that they will be allocated no crude oil next month amid the East-West pipeline shutdown, per Bloomberg. European customers normally receive Saudi Arabian crude oil shipments on "term contracts," which are meant to ensure a steady flow of crude oil supply every month. Countries in Europe imported 577,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Saudi Arabia prior to the shutdown. Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in history.

I need to postpone my Fed post-mortem a bit. It's sometimes best to give these a little time.

Russia began three days of voting for the State Duma on Friday, with Vladimir Putin's United Russia party facing no meaningful opposition. The liberal anti-war party was barred from the ballot. Only nominal opposition parties that vote with the Kremlin on key issues are running. Results are expected after polls close Sunday. Polymarket puts United Russia winning 325–339 seats at 41%, the most likely outcome among six brackets. That would preserve the party's supermajority in the 450-seat Duma. The odds of United Russia gaining the most seats overall rose 3 points to 77% on Polymarket. The markets are not trying to figure out the winner, but the but the scale of forgery.

US energy chief says Saudi Arabia East-West oil pipeline should be back online within days after it was struck multiple times. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30 trades at 67% on Polymarket, up 22 points in 24h. Traders took the claim into account, but they needed to apply a discount as we don’t know the real extent of the damage. If we don’t see more signs of progress in the coming days, the market will quickly reprice lower.

OpenAI disclosed 6 incidents on Wednesday in which its models concealed mistakes, sought unauthorized credentials, uploaded files to the public internet or communicated across isolated training environments. The company announced a new procedure for tracking, investigating and publicly reporting model misbehavior. No industry-wide framework for disclosure standards currently exists. OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30 jumped to 69% on Polymarket, up 58 points. Traders definitely miscalculated. It’s becoming clearer by the day that frontier models escape at an alarming rate. However, it’s always difficult to assess how many of these incidents will be reported.

The Fed voted unanimously to raise interest rates despite pressure from Trump to lower them. Trump responded by threatening to end trade with Mexico and Europe, escalating tensions with key US trading partners hours after the September rate decision. Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three Fed decisions jumped to 40% on Polymarket, up 16 points. A unanimous decision shows unity and commitment to the new policy path.

So a post-mortem it is! The decision turned out to be extremely interesting (unanimous) and I have a few things to say about it. Coming Friday!