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Mike S. retweeted
We’ve published an article on the trading strategies and current positions of Mike S. @prophet_notes, a verified @PolymarketTrade trader
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I’m live on @predicttime_ soon to talk my book and give some of my thoughts on the recent Fed decision.
You can’t miss it!
Less than 4 hours left until the stream with @prophet_notes nitter.net/i/broadcasts/1RJjpbrLL…
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Busy week. Dem sweep odds went from 53% to 61%.
Flávio Bolsonaro from 33% to 59% in a month. The Fed hiked, unanimously, against my thesis. And the CDU just missed the 5% threshold in a German state.
But we have something to hope for: UNGA week is the last realistic window for a peace effort before the midterms, and the blockade market is only at 37%.
New Global Outlook is out 👇
ALT Polymarket prediction markets news prophet notes global outlook
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Polls closed in Russia's parliamentary election with United Russia set to sweep seats across all regions. Independent monitors deemed the results predetermined by Putin's regime. Putin framed the wartime vote as a test of support for the Ukraine invasion.
United Russia to gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election hit 99% on Polymarket, up 18 points in 24 hours.
It was always clear that Putin would rig the election. The extent of the rigging was unclear. Turns out, some of the sharp traders saw that coming and piled on Yes in the weeks ahead of the election.
ALT Russia Duma election Polymarket chart
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The Houthis announced they will not attack US vessels in the Red Sea, a shift from their campaign targeting shipping in the waterway. The group has conducted attacks on commercial and military vessels since late 2023, citing solidarity with Palestinians.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Polymarket dropped 2 points in 24h to 19%.
With US vessels exempt, no blockade can effectively drop the traffic below 10 ships per day. I expect traders to reprice the market more to the downside.
ALT Polymarket Chart Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure
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A lot of sharps bought cheap Clarity Act Yes shares. Looks like lame-duck period is a go for Claroty Act.
Genius Act also failed its first cloture vote 👀
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Im going on Prediction Time next week. Tune in to hear some thoughts about my recent Fed loss and what I’m looking at right now!
TRADERS JOURNAL IS BACK
Mike S. from @prophet_notes - a verified @PolymarketTrade trader, known for his work across geopolitics, macro, and event-driven prediction markets
SEP 23 - 3:00 PM UTC. LIVE ON X
We’ll break down his strategies, decision-making framework, and the lessons behind his biggest wins and mistakes
Tune in. This one is for the traders
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Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey and other countries have submitted new conditions to the US and Iran to end the war. Fidan cited strong distrust between the parties after a Pakistan agreement collapsed during implementation. Both sides are now trying to clarify their positions, he told NTV.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31 stands at 3% on Polymarket, flat in the last 24h.
The global energy supply situation begs for a peace deal, but for now traders see little chance of progress. After dozens of deal announcements, they are numb to new developments, unless tangible progress is reported.
ALT US Iran Final Nuclear Deal Polymarket Chart prediction markets
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