who has more unrealistic expectations?

Called this market out on Sep 10th 30% profit since then

.@kyparus was right. His position on United Russia in “Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election?” returned roughly +25% PnL. ER was trading well below 100% before the election because this market was not about who would win the most seats overall - it was about which party would gain the most seats compared with the pre-election Duma Now the picture is nearly settled. Preliminary results give United Russia around 355 seats versus a 325-seat baseline, a gain of roughly +30. New People, the main alternative in this market, is projected at around 20 seats versus a baseline of 10 - only +10. ER ended up gaining roughly three times as many seats, and the market repriced to 100% after the election

Build something that matters. ALL19 early applications close tonight at midnight PT. $400,000 to each startup. Apply → alliance.xyz

applying to alliance is the best return a founder can get on 20 minutes of their time

Surround yourself with people who take building as seriously as you do. 2 more days till the ALL19 early application deadline.

Been heads down building the last few weeks - barely looked at this app. Coming back to post more.

compiling @kyparus forecasts into a single article following our first live stream with the trader

Gambling with +EV

Creators spend too much time creating content and not enough time building distribution. Yeah, content can be great. But if nobody sees it - or the wrong people see it - brands won’t pay for it. For creators, distribution is part of the product, as well as for brands. That’s why networking, community building, and getting into the right circles will often take you further than learning how to write the perfect tweet. Great content matters. But great content without distribution is just great content nobody sees.

told you

opened my new iPhone today

- sharing strategies about my previous bets - discussing current bets - vibe-quant approach to prediction markets

Live NOW: TRADERS JOURNAL - @kyparus nitter.net/i/broadcasts/1qGvveZww…

hey @X ,our official X account @SurfAI has been suspeded for months, and recently we recieved an email saying that no violation was found and that it has been restored to "full functionality." We are still fully suspended. Could you let us know how we can proceed?

The world’s first PredictTime Builders PitchDay is coming soon We’re looking for teams building products around @Polymarket and prediction markets 5-8 selected teams will pitch their products live on X, demo what they’ve built, and get feedback from experienced founders in the prediction market space Winners will get: - Exposure across the Polymarket ecosystem - Support and guidance with their Polymarket Builders grant application - A closer connection with the Polymarket team, including access to a private group for direct communication - Private 1:1 sessions with the judges - Introductions to relevant VCs - Additional exposure across PredictTime media We’re already putting together a strong lineup of judges from some of the most exciting projects in the space, including Polysights, Gondor, Dimes, Wallchain, and more Building something the prediction market ecosystem should know about? apply here: forms.gle/XtckUzzwTGAvjmkK9 *applications close: September 21, 2026

Banger new identity just dropped. @OznakaAI

LAPTOP is already down 99% do you think there’s a 49% chance it drops another 75%?