Doubled off the 2021 bottom. Still 5% under 2019.
The rebound is slowing, not reversing. +34% → +17% → +6%. New listings are down year over year. Homes are stacking because buyers stepped back. Price cuts just hit 20.8%, the highest September since 2018. South and West are already above pre-pandemic inventory. Northeast is still ~43% below.
That is the
@Opendoor setup.
Sellers who listed into a 7% rate market are now cutting price and sitting. A certain, fast cash offer is worth more when the listing path is slower and cheaper. The supply is in the Sun Belt, which is the footprint. The bid does not have to chase. It has to show up at a tight spread and turn the house.
The old mistake was widening the spread to hide from this market. That killed conversion, pulled in the worst homes, and made the book worse. The trade now is the opposite: be the bid where inventory is already loose, buy homes that resell, and let velocity do the work while everyone else waits on rates.
$OPEN
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
More choice. Softer prices. Motivated sellers. That is not a volume market for the traditional buyer. It is a spread market for the buyer who can close.
U.S. active housing inventory for sale at the end of September, by year
Sept 2017 -> 1,308,607 📉
Sept 2018 -> 1,301,922 📉
Sept 2019 -> 1,224,868 📉
Sept 2020 -> 749,395 📉
Sept 2021 -> 578,070 📉
Sept 2022 -> 731,496 📈
Sept 2023 -> 702,430 📉
Sept 2024 -> 940,980 📈
Sept 2025 -> 1,100,407 📈
Sept 2026 -> 1,161,615 📈