Here’s a surprising fact: the triple lock has saved the taxpayer money. It’s true.
Today, the most popular position among Westminster elites seems to be that the country can no longer afford it.
But, based on our calculations, had the triple lock never been introduced and the previous rule, which pegged state pension increases to the highest of inflation (RPI) or 2.5%, remained in place, pensions would have increased 6% faster and cost the Treasury £4bn more than they do now, each year.
The triple lock has struck a balance. Pensioners are better off than they were. But the growth has been controlled.
Today someone on the state pension is getting £241 a week. Out of that they pay all their outgoings – food, electricity and gas bills, rent in some cases. Next year it will go up to £250.
It’s not lavish, is it? And when you consider there are now a million more divorced, single pensioners than there were 20 years ago, for many, money is now much tighter.
Yet some Tory MPs such as Jeremy Hunt say that this is still too much.
To which my argument is: why is it always British workers who have done the right thing their whole lives who are asked to be the first to make sacrifices? They’ve paid in, juggled jobs for decades, and in their retirement they get around £1,000 a month to live on. For many it’s their only income.
In what world is it fair to turn on them first?
The Government spends £7bn a year on foreign aid – Ed Miliband announced another £88m for Gaza last week alone. Another £184bn goes on the benefits bill – double what it was pre-pandemic. By 2030, it’s forecast to reach £210bn.
Since 2023, the cost of welfare for foreigners has grown twice as fast as the state pension. If Boriswave migrants get indefinite leave to remain, as Rayner demands, the cost could be as much as £600bn.
Net zero zealotry is costing us a fortune as well. The Government is ploughing £5.8bn into Great British Energy, excluding nuclear projects, and a further £9.4bn into carbon capture and storage.
The fiscal incontinence of successive governments has seen borrowing costs rocket. If we simply returned the cost of British borrowing to that of Greece, we would have £30bn more headroom.
I could keep listing examples of scandalous waste. But you get the picture. Balancing the public finances simply does not hinge on the triple lock. Not in the next decade, at least.
It’s about choices. Reform has chosen to cut wasteful spending by £80bn so we can afford to support pensioners. My pledge to raise the tax-free personal allowance to £15,000 in my first budget will mean the state pension won’t be taxed either.
The Labour and Tory MPs moaning about the triple lock won’t choose to make the common-sense decisions on immigration, welfare and energy that we need.
Take William Hague, the former Tory leader. He’s described cutting foreign aid as “a strategic blunder”, but the triple lock for our pensioners as a “runaway train” that needs to be scrapped. God forbid we put our own citizens first.
As it happens, if people were interested in fiscal probity, they would be talking about reforming gold-plated public-sector pensions.
Public-sector defined-benefit pensions – phased out in the private sector decades ago – represent the Government’s second-largest liability at £1.4tn, or almost £50,000 per household, but you will rarely hear a peep about them. Reform is doing the hard work behind the scenes on how to address this looming crisis.
“But what about younger generations? Aren’t they being screwed?” is the final riposte from triple-lock bashers. To which I say: I agree. We must lower rents by building more in cities and deporting all low-skilled migrants. Cut their debts by scrapping worthless degrees, and bring back apprenticeships. And create better-paying work by ending absurd regulation and reversing the jobs tax.
It’s not a binary choice between helping pensioners and our young people get a better deal. We can, and must, do both.