My PhD advisor, James Maynard (Fields medal, 2022) says he once dismissed predictions about AI as science fiction, but its rapid advances have proved him “consistently wrong”.
I want to commend him for this admission:
"I would have completely dismissed you as a fantasist...I've heard all these predictions that just sound like sci-fi and I've been consistently dismissive and skeptical of all of them."
"But I've been consistently wrong, and the people who sound from a sci-fi novel have been making much more accurate predictions."
It is not easy to admit one's worldview is wrong. So first and foremost, opening up in such a public way must be commended.
Personally, I've come to the realization that my general discomfort over the past several years--as a PhD student at Oxford and now in the math department at Stanford--has arisen from being unable to discuss the trends I've seen with my colleagues, without being dismissed as "sci-fi".
Unlike most in the math community, I have been tracking AI & mathematics daily for the past 7 years, seeing general capabilities increase at a predictable rate (c.f
@A_G_I_Joe straight lines on log-log plots). As such, I was excited but not surprised when Navier-Stokes (and possibly more Millenium prize problems) have been solved.
Now, more in the math community are waking up. It is a very unnerving feeling to see your deeply-held, yet embarrassing convictions to suddenly become accepted as mainstream. I feel more disoriented than vindicated, to be honest.
However, there is now the tendency to overreact, going from zero to 100 without nuance. Instead of swinging from one side of the pendulum to the other, one needs only continue to follow trendlines that have been holding up over several orders of magnitude (an empirical fact of first-rate historical importance, but not well understood scientifically).
I would suggest paying close attention to the voices who have been consistently correct in their predictions, rather than the newly converted.
Indeed, these trends suggest great transformation across sectors in the coming months and years. However, this is not cause for undo panic, but rather careful navigation and reflection.
In general, my advice is to keep an open mind on this adventure we are collectively on.
What a time to be alive.
piped.video/watch?v=kMB8WeXr…