Founder @ Freedland Strategies. Advisor @MoonshotNYC | @MPS_NYC | @NewYorkStateAG | @ACLU | @Kennedy_School | invented post-its
New York & Stockholm
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James Freedland retweeted
Gallup rolls out another batch of indicators suggesting this midterm might have more in common with 2006 than 2018.
Better on top issue
06: D+15
18: D+1
26: D+11
Keeping US prosperous
06: D+17
18: R+5 (!)
26: D+14
Keeping US safe
06: R+2
18: R+6
26: D+4
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James Freedland retweeted
Tratan de imponer falsas disyuntivas.
Pretenden decirnos que hay que elegir entre sanidad pública o Quirón. Entre una pensión pública o un fondo en un banco. Entre vivienda digna o fondos buitre.
Nosotros decimos SÍ a todo: ¡a la sanidad pública, las pensiones públicas y la vivienda digna!
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James Freedland retweeted
That whole thing about Democrats being more unpopular than Republicans hasn't really been true for a while now, but what *is* true in our data is that the GOP image is worse among the 2026 electorate than it has ever been.
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James Freedland retweeted
Michigan’s gold-standard poll finds El-Sayed matching Benson’s 4-point lead, a sharp turnaround from Rogers’ 3-point edge in the last poll.
El-Sayed also holds a 12-point net favorability edge over Rogers, double Benson’s 6-point advantage over James.
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James Freedland retweeted
There are more Muslims than Jews in Michigan, so any marginal shift towards Republicans among Jewish voters will be offset by Abdul running up the score with Muslim voters in a way Kamala wasn’t even close to doing in 2024.
The election will come down to independent voters.
This Jewish vs Muslim voter stuff is getting way too much media hype. Both groups make up like a combined ~3-4% of voters in Michigan.
Independent voters (who overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump) will decide this election in Michigan.
I’ll go a step further. Independents who disapprove of Trump and are voting Benson for Governor will decide this senate race. Rogers needs a significant amount of Benson voters!
🚨 MICHIGAN VOTER:
"As a former Democrat, now independent, and a Jew, I’ll be voting for @MikeRogersForMI, the first Republican I voted for in decades. That’s how much I fear El-Sayed."
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James Freedland retweeted
YouGov: Trump approval among Independents
Oct. 2018
🟢 Approve: 38% (-4)
🟤 Disapprove: 42%
JULY 2026
🟢 Approve: 19% (-53) ← record low
🟤 Disapprove: 72%
Net 49-point negative swing
🇺🇸 NATIONAL POLL by YouGov
Pres. Trump
Approve: 34% (-2)
Disapprove: 62 (+2)
Trump's lowest approval in either term
——
Net Approval
🟢 GOP: (+64)
🟤 Dem: (-92)
🟤 Indie: (-53)
🟤 No College: (-25)
🟤 College: (-35)
🟤 White: (-18)
🟤 Black: (-62)
🟤 Hispanic: (-34)
Economist | 7/25-27 | 1,559 A
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.ne…
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James Freedland retweeted
According to the CNBC/Hart/POS poll, identifying as a Democratic Socialist was less politically damaging than receiving Trump’s endorsement or identifying as part of the MAGA movement.
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James Freedland retweeted
🚨 NEW from @Ipsos_in_the_UK Britain backs Binface 🚨
When asked who they would prefer win the Clacton by-election...
33% say Count Binface
21% say Nigel Farage
32% say neither
13% are undecided
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James Freedland retweeted
Mostly due to an accident of who he was listening to, out of the six conservative justices, Trump appointed three of those most reminiscent of the Bush-era GOP — while the Bushes ended up appointing the two Trumpiest.
Trump’s second term would look fairly different if his first-term picks had been more Thomas/Alito-like
The three Trump justices get lumped together but were always different ideologically. Barrett is socially conservative but less so on other issues.
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AOC: I actually think the more important advice that I would give would be to my incumbent colleagues, which is: you will create a self-fulfilling prophecy by deciding who these young women are before you’ve met them.
And if you are already panicking and sending little messages in your group chats about how these people need to be reined in, tamped down, and shown their place, you are creating the antagonistic dynamic that we do not need.
These are two young, talented, intelligent women who got elected against all odds, against millions of dollars. Perhaps there is something we can learn from them.
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James Freedland retweeted
Just a reminder that these were the Polymarket odds two days before the 2025 NYC mayoral primary
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James Freedland retweeted
noted in this morning's Crystal Ball -- I'll withhold judgment until all votes are in, but when the R share of the two-party vote is below 50 in CA top-two primaries, they don't win
#CA22 primary, with 72% of votes now in:
David Valadao (inc.) (R) 41.8%
Randy Villegas (D) 31.2
Jasmeet Bains (D) 27
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James Freedland retweeted
Aaaaaand this is Reason #576 why no serious person or media outlet should ever cite RCP polling averages ever again
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James Freedland retweeted
It's alarming that Bezalel Smotrich, an extremist with a long history of racist, Islamophobic, and homophobic beliefs—and even comments denigrating Reform Jews—came to this parade.
Smotrich has called for Palestinian villages to be "wiped out" and has promoted aggressive settlement expansion. His views and actions disgust me and are antithetical to our values as New Yorkers and Americans.
Israel Day Parade in NYC: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and other far-right Israeli lawmakers and American politicians march on Fifth Avenue
NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani decided to skip the event | @Etanetan23
Video: Liri Agami
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James Freedland retweeted
I just introduced the Anti-Insurrectionist Act in NY. It's simple: If you're a New Yorker who takes from Trump's illegal January 6th slush fund, NY will tax 100% of it.
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James Freedland retweeted
Surely no guarantee these would be the numbers in the Nov exit poll, but if they were Democrats would have to be favored to win not only House, but the Senate. The regular reminder: in 18/20, Collins was the only GOP Senate candidate to win in a state Trump's job was net negative
Trump Net Approval in All 50 States (Morning Consult)
🟤 Georgia: -6
🟤 North Carolina: -8
🟤 Pennsylvania: -9
🟤 Nevada: -9
🟤 Arizona: -11
🟤 Michigan: -14
🟤 Wisconsin: -15
——
Other States
🟤 Texas: -3
🟤 Alaska: -5
🟤 Ohio: -5
🟤 Iowa: -7
🟤 Maine: -17
🟤 New Hampshire: -18
---
🟢 Wyoming: +25
🟢 West Virginia: +16
🟢 Idaho: +15
🟢 Alabama: +12
🟢 Tennessee: +12
🟢 Oklahoma: +12
🟢 Louisiana: +11
🟢 Mississippi: +11
🟢 South Dakota: +11
🟢 Kentucky: +10
🟢 Arkansas: +7
🟢 North Dakota: +6
🟢 Montana: +6
🟢 Missouri: +7
🟢 Utah: +3
🟢 Nebraska: +2
🟢 Florida: +1
🟡 South Carolina: +0
---
🟤 Indiana: -2
🟤 Kansas: -4
🟤 Minnesota: -11
🟤 Virginia: -14
🟤 New Mexico: -17
🟤 Colorado: -18
🟤 New Jersey: -19
🟤 Delaware: -19
🔴 New York: -20
🔴 Illinois: -23
🔴 Oregon: -24
🔴 Connecticut: -26
🔴 California: -28
🔴 Washington: -33
🔴 Hawaii: -33
🔴 Rhode Island: -35
🔴 Massachusetts: -35
🔴 Maryland: -37
🔴 Vermont: -41
@MorningConsult | Q1, 2026
links.morningconsult.com/s/c…
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In 2018, the last successful midterm election for Democrats, independent voters opted for a Democratic candidate by 12 points, according to exit polls. Today, Democrats are winning independent voters in the generic ballot by 25 points.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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James Freedland retweeted
Chuck Schumer’s standing in New York has collapsed the past two years. Hard to imagine he runs again in 2028.
If Kirsten Gillibrand was up for re-election this year she would lose. Instead she’ll just lose in 2030.
It’s only a matter of time.
The 7 Senate Democrats who voted against blocking a proposed weapons sale to Israel:
Richard Blumenthal (CT)
Chris Coons (DE)
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Jacky Rosen (NV)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
Chuck Schumer (NY)
John Fetterman (PA)
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James Freedland retweeted
Spanberger is the stereotypical "moderate" dem and her doing this, a 10-1 map, signing voting restoration for felons into law, and backing abortion/LGBTQ protection bills shows just how much better even the most centrist dem is than the best Republican alternative.
NEW: Virginia Gov Spanberger this afternoon ordered that all state agencies leave ICE's 287(g) program.
State police will no longer be empowered to detain & arrest people for ICE.
Important move by the governor within weeks of coming into office: boltsmag.org/virginia-spanbe…
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