While Moore’s law is not obsolete
It is no longer the main driver or the complete story when it comes to AI.
Elon Musk was asked how fast AI is moving, and answered by correcting the most aggressive forecaster in technology for not being aggressive enough.
Musk: “I have to give credit to Ray Kurzweil in being actually remarkably accurate in his predictions. If anything, I think he was perhaps a bit conservative in his predictions.”
Kurzweil spent thirty years publishing timelines that were treated as proof he had lost the plot. He hit nearly all of them. The word Musk used for that record was conservative.
Kurzweil built his forecasts by reading the rate of change. Musk is reading it now.
Musk: “The dedicated AI compute appears to be growing by a factor of 10 every six months.”
That is not a projection. “Appears to be growing” describes something that has already happened.
Musk: “Almost a 100x improvement per year, at least for the next few years.”
Moore’s Law was 2x every two years. That one curve produced the internet, the smartphone, the cloud, and every instinct you have about how fast the world can change.
Your sense of normal was calibrated on 2x. The system is running at 100x.
The new world is not being built next to the old one.
Musk: “Probably a lot of the data centers, maybe most of the data centers that currently do conventional compute, will transition to AI compute.”
The infrastructure holding up the current economy is being converted into what replaces it. The old world is the raw material for the next one.
Every generation assumes the speed it grew up with is the speed of history. Ours is the first to be handed the actual number and still round it down.
Everything you build takes time. A child, a trade, a life’s work. All of it rests on the assumption that the world will still be recognizable when the work is finished.
That assumption has held for every human who has ever lived. It was never a law of nature. It was a side effect of how slowly things moved.
The most extreme forecast on record came in low. Reasonable is no longer the safe position. It is only the comfortable one.