Do the Math: Five Mathematical Reasons Trump Beats Harris in 2024 The math doesn’t lie. Trump will win the national popular vote, all swing states and 312 electoral votes becoming the 47th President of the United States. See the five data points and historical analysis that suggests a Trump victory. 1) The current RealClear Politics direction of the country right track / wrong track average of polls at 63.1% wrong track and 26.7% right directions suggests the incumbent party will lose (footnote 1). The Cook Political Report historical analysis (footnote 2) shows that the incumbent party loses the election when they have high wrong track and low right track numbers. Incumbents have lost with an average of 70% wrong track and 24% right track. 2) According to Gallup, Republicans have a stronger party identification with 48% identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican versus 48% for the Democrats (footnote 3). The Republican party is winning the battle for the hearts and minds of voters for the first time in the modern era. 3) Republican early voting rates have significantly increased from 30.5% in 2020 to 36% in 2024 while Democrat rates has fallen from 44.8% in 2020 to 37.9% in 2024 (footnote 4). The Republican disadvantage in 2020 was a key reason for their lose. The former campaign manager for Barack Obama, Jim Messina, said that the early voting figures from Republicans are "a little scary" for Democrats. 4) Republicans have massively increased national and swing state Republican voter registrations by margins that would have changed the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election (footnote 5). Republicans have improved their registrations by 198,006 or 3.92% in AZ which Biden won by only 10,427 votes in 2020, 440,288 or 5.37% in GA which Biden won by only 11,779 votes in 2020, 97,674 or 1.16% in MI which Biden won by 154,188 votes in 2020, 71,734 or 2.98% in NV which Biden won by 33,596 in 2020, 311,587 or 4.06% in NC which Trump won by 74,481 in 2020, 585,957 or 6.4% in PA which Biden one by 81,660 in 2020, and 86,571 or 1.59% in WI which Biden won by 20,608 votes in 2020. In all States except Michigan, these new registered Republicans would have given Trump the edge and the Presidency in 2020. See footnotes 5 and 6. 5) RealClear Politics November 4th average of polls has Trump tied with Harris for the national vote and leading in five of the seven swing states with enough electoral votes to win the 2024 election (footnote 7). In 2016 Trump over performed the polls by 2.5% and in 2020 by 2.9% (an average of 2.7%). When the RealClear Politics average national and seven swing state polls (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI) are adjusted by this average, Trump wins the national popular vote, the electoral college and all seven swing states. Only tomorrow’s election will tell if the pollsters improved, but their 2020 performance declined over 2016. When these five mathematical points are understood and coupled with the significant Democrat disadvantages on the key issues of inflation, economic performance, immigration, foreign wars and crime, it’s hard to see how Harris can win. #DeSantis2024 #RD24 #DeSantisForPresident #RonDeSantis #NikkiHaley2024 #Trump2024 #Trump #TeamTrump #TrumpVance2024 #PatriotsUnite #HarrisWalz2024 #RFK 1. realclearpolling.com/polls/s…. 2. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…. 3. news.gallup.com/poll/651092/…. 4. newsweek.com/early-voting-fi… 5. x.com/elonmusk/status/185260… 6. abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024…. 7. realclearpolling.com/polls/p…

Grateful that the @FreeBeacon has exposed this. No one should be shocked by this! 🚨Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed landed a $9,000-a-month consulting contract with Wayne County just six days after launching his campaign, allowing him to bill taxpayers roughly $300 an hour while running for office, the Free Beacon’s Alana Goodman reports. Public records obtained by the Free Beacon show that Wayne County approved the deal on April 23, less than three weeks after El-Sayed resigned as director of its health services department. The eight-month contract authorized up to $72,000 for 30 hours of work per month providing “strategic support” during the leadership transition. The payments were routed through AME Higher LLC, an entity El-Sayed created as a pass-through for consulting and speaking fees. “The news comes as El-Sayed has faced questions over his use of a tax loophole to avoid payroll and income taxes on payments he received through AME Higher LLC,” Goodman writes. His latest financial disclosure shows that he paid himself a $64,000 salary from the company and took another $103,000 as a “member draw,” a common strategy for avoiding payroll taxes, accountants told the Free Beacon. The Wayne County deal was not El-Sayed’s only consulting work during the campaign. He has also collected more than $82,000 from One Health Partners, a Chicago-area nonprofit health care company that former employees have called a “scam.” The Free Beacon reported that the company focuses on buying medical practices and “exploiting Medicare” to increase revenue. It is run by Ali Karim, one of El-Sayed’s largest campaign donors, who was sanctioned by Wisconsin regulators for defrauding an investor and has been accused of fraudulent business practices in multiple lawsuits. El-Sayed has bragged about his two-year tenure running Wayne County’s health department on the campaign trail, claiming he “led the rebuild from the studs” of its troubled juvenile detention facility. Investigators, however, found the facility “flooded with sewage and garbage” and littered with “dried feces and bodily fluids.” The facility later lost its full operational license and was placed on probation by state regulators.

I’ve seen a lot of conversation about significant Senate polling error around this time of year, so I did a little research. I collected an aggregate of fairly reliable pollsters (none really are) and compared polls from this time of year (Sept-Oct) for 2020, 2022, and 2024 Senate races. This is a general overview of each competitive state and doesn’t factor in candidate quality, recent polarization shifts, turnout projections, etc. As a result, don’t rely on this data to fully justify large shifts from now to November. On average, Republicans were underestimated by about 4.2% across these 13 states in recent cycles. The first map is current polling averages for the following states, and the second is adjusted values. 2026 Polling Aggregate (as of 10/3/26): 🔵Alaska: D+ 2.25 🔴Florida: R+ 7.00 🔵Georgia: D+ 8.00 🔵Iowa: D+ 0.36 🔴Kansas: R+ 0.75 🔵Maine: D+ 0.44 🔵Michigan: D+ 3.17 🔵Minnesota: D+ 2.00 🔵New Hampshire: D+ 6.00 🔵North Carolina: D+ 8.75 🔵Ohio: D+ 3.67 🔴South Carolina: R+ 2.33 🔵Texas: D+ 2.50 Live Polling Error Adjustment: 🔴Alaska: R+ 5.15 🔴Florida: R+ 17.27 🔵Georgia: D+ 12.40 🔴Iowa: R+ 3.74 🔴Kansas: R+ 10.66 🔴Maine: R+ 10.66 🔴Michigan: R+ 0.55 🔵Minnesota: D+ 2.29 🔵New Hampshire: D+ 6.35 🔵North Carolina: D+ 4.72 🔴Ohio: R+ 2.56 🔴South Carolina: R+ 11.63 🔴Texas: R+ 0.18

🚨 Michael LaRosa, Assistant to Joe Biden and Press Secretary to Jill Biden, endorses Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed

IMO, any airline that doesn’t embrace Starlink is going to get left behind. Incredible technology, & it’s the only thing that allowed us to do live shots in some of the most remote parts of the border. I’m a @Delta guy, but I will 100% switch airlines for fast Internet in flight.

🚨 BREAKING: Amy Klobuchar SKIPPED the Minnesota gubernatorial debate with Lisa Demuth, broadcast statewide by KSTP. What are you afraid of, @amyklobuchar?

One that is foolish, out of touch and lacks basic leadership and strategic skills - John Thune. Remove him now. @GOPSenate @GOP @SenRickScott @SenAshleyMoody @VP @POTUS @SecRubio2028 @SecScottBessent @SpeakerJohnson @spencerpratt

🚨WINNING: Republicans have TOTALLY OBLITERATED Democrats and Independents in Voter Registration in LA. 🔴: +137,846 🔵: +10,112 ⚪️: +78,111 Pray for a Republican LA victory.

The legacy media swore tariffs would bring runaway inflation. Instead, they brought $19 trillion in investment pledges and a generational manufacturing return.

92% negative. ABC, CBS, and NBC evening news covered Trump’s first 100 days that way. @StephenMoore: “I’ve never seen such negative coverage… when in fact we have the best economy in the world.”

Democrats will print just enough ballots to push Kotek over the top.

🚨 BREAKING — IT'S OFFICIAL: President Trump announces he is moving the US Space Command HQ from Colorado to ALABAMA More than 30,000 JOBS will now be created in Huntsville, Alabama, which will now be known as "ROCKET CITY," Trump says BILLIONS of dollars of investments will follow too!

Peggy Flanagan believed skipping debates was disqualifying in 2010, by the way. Why did you delete this tweet, @peggyflanagan?

Mike Rogers just EXPOSED Abdul El-Sayed. When confronted by a young man whose family was hunted by Islamists, El-Sayed REFUSED to denounce the IRGC and Iranian terror. He’s completely unfit to represent Michigan. Total radical! VOTE MIKE ROGERS! 🇺🇸

California doesn't have the highest housing costs in America because of "Trump" in Washington. It's because of Democrat policies in Sacramento. So let's change them. Just Try It!

100% correct and this is exactly what was done during the Biden administration. @GOP @POTUS

Vote for @JohnJamesMI to be Michigan’s next Governor! 🇺🇸

Red wave.

🚨 BREAKING: In a massive development, President Trump is expected to announce the "HEALTHCARE PRICE CUTS ACT" as soon as TOMORROW to fix the broken Obamacare subsidy system that gives billions to Big Insurance. He has officially CORNERED the Democrats on Obamacare. They will now defend Big, Rich Insurance. The bill would halt Obamacare premium spikes, per MSNOW. The plan reportedly includes a DEPOSIT mechanism, putting money into a Health Savings Account, incentivizing lower-premium options. It would also end the premium hikes, end zero-premium subsidies, and STOP massive fraud known as "ghost beneficiaries." Trump recently said: "I am calling today for insurance companies NOT to be paid. But for this massive amount of money be paid DIRECTLY to the people so they can buy their own healthcare!" "We will pay a lot of money to the people, and FORGET this Obamacare madness!"

Dana Bash: “You’re a lifelong Democrat. If you were a Michigan voter, how would you vote in the Senate race?” Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D): “There’s no way I’m ever coming out for El-Sayed.”

RT @mitchellvii: Outperforming Trump. Interesting.