At Brookings Institution. Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd on US and China: “When President Trump says whoever wins the AI race wins, he means it… It’s a two-horse race… I think in the US system there’s been an earlier internal recognition that this is dangerous.”

This is insane. £730.02 to fill a lorry up with diesel.

"IF A GENERAL ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY" PROJECTION @UKLABOUR WIN LAB: 24.6% (-9.1) CON: 18.9% (-4.9) LIB: 15.7% (3.5) pollingreport.uk

Hirst (Northumberland) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 50.1% (+7.0) ➡️ RFM: 30.0% (-20.0) ◼️ RES: 10.3% (New) 🌳 CON: 4.1% (-2.8) 🔶 LDM: 3.9% (New) 🙋 Ind: 1.6% (New) Labour GAIN from Reform UK. Changes w/ 2025.

“The Chinese are such smart, clever people, and it is not beyond the possibilities that they may be able to construct a good Adam Smith capitalist society under the label of communism. I hope so, but I don’t think even the Chinese can pull it off.” — Milton Friedman

BREAKING: U.S. employers added a disappointing 29,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% ahead of the November midterms. apnews.com/article/jobs-unem…

Opposition to data centers is 65%, but drops to 50% if you call them “server farms.” 👨🏻‍🌾

It’s exceedingly rare when a policy paper from a Washington think tank sets off a firestorm on both sides of the Pacific, but it’s exactly what happened with @jekavanagh's “A Second Island Chain Strategy for Asia”, published by Defense Priorities on September 10. Even today, some 3 weeks after publication, it's still being argued over: this week a professor of strategic deterrence at the U.S. Naval War College weighed in on "the commotion" around it (x.com/JRHunTx/status/2104785…). You also had coverage from Seoul's Chosun Ilbo (chosun.com/english/world-en/…) and Tokyo's Japan Times (japantimes.co.jp/commentary/…) to Germany's Deutsche Welle (dw.com/en/us-asia-western-pa…), which reported that it had “alarmed U.S. allies in Asia.” To be fair, Kavanagh has quite the resume so it's no surprise her words carry weight: before Defense Priorities, she ran the Army Strategy program at the RAND Corporation, the Pentagon's semi-official think tank, then was a senior fellow at Carnegie. She also teaches at Georgetown and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Hard to think of a more mainstream Washington CV. And what she proposes in the report is indeed radical, especially coming from someone with such an establishment pedigree. She proposes that every single mutual defense treaty in Asia be effectively terminated or phased out, including those with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia, and that U.S. forces should retrench to the second island chain, far away from China’s coast. All in all, it’s no exaggeration to say that her proposal does in fact amount to undoing the entire security order the U.S. has built in the region over three quarters of a century. So... why? Why would someone with such deep roots in the very institutions that built the U.S. security order argue it just isn't sustainable anymore? That U.S. forward bases in Asia are, in her words, "vulnerabilities not assets, all risk and little reward"? Is Kavanagh just an outlier, or is she the canary in the coal mine, the first mainstream voice to put two and two together and say out loud what the rest of the establishment will soon have no choice but to admit? That's what my latest article is all about: a deep look into the military reality behind her conclusions, the Asia that would come after, and why, read between the lines, her report is above all a testament to how well Beijing has played the long game. As I put it in the conclusion: "The surest sign a strategy has worked is when your rival concludes, in its own interest, that it should do what you wanted all along." This is the link to the article, enjoy the read: arnaudbertrand.substack.com/…

NEW POLL - WESTMINSTER LAB: 29% REFORM: 23% CON: 19% LIB: 9% GREEN: 9% SNP: 3% PLAID: 1% OTHER: 6% via @Survation, 29 Sep pollingreport.uk/polls

The only rule applied consistently in the rules-based international order is that countries in the Global North are allowed to break the rules whereas countries in the Global South have to follow them.

Imagine something worse than Microsoft teams! Well done Europe lol

On Wednesday, Sept. 30, Zoo Atlanta shared a sneak peek of Fu Shuang, one of two giant pandas that arrived in the United States from China over the weekend. Zoo Atlanta released the video just days after the two giant pandas arrived on a Fed Ex plane. From inside quarantine, Fu Shuang seems to know people are watching, and waiting for his American debut. #pandamaxxing #PandaPaws

This is just horrific

Scoop: Congressional staffers planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France 2 weeks before election The weeklong bipartisan trip — which included visits to a Ferrari factory, luxury brands in Milan or Florence & day trips to the Champagne wine region — was to be led by a top aide to House Speaker Mike Johnson. It was canceled TODAY after @NBCNews asked about the itinerary. nbcnews.com/politics/congres…

Sorry to hear Dame Esther Rantzen has died. I will always remember her moving “That’s Life” segment with Sir Nicholas Winton, hero of the Holocaust, who rescued so many Jewish children. She was a great Briton. May her memory be a blessing.

BREAKING: The US is officially closing its last major military base in Iraq after spending more than 23 years and $1.7 trillion in the country. A US defense official said the military is airlifting its last equipment and personnel out of Erbil, the last US base in Iraq. Some US Marines will remain to protect American "diplomatic missions," along with contractors to maintain Iraq’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets and American-made tanks. "We don’t think we need the military there anymore," Trump said.

JUST IN: 🇦🇪 Flydubai Co-Pilot reportedly stabbed the Pilot multiple times and attempted to send the plane into a nosedive.

New essay based on a talk I gave in Singapore last week: The Fever Has Broken — For Now: Why Chinamaxxing Actually Matters. sinicapodcast.com/p/the-feve…

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇶 US officially withdraws all its forces from Iraq, ending 23 years of military involvement.

Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 29% (+2) RFM: 23% (-1) CON: 19% (-2) LDM: 9% (-2) GRN: 9% (+2) SNP: 3% (=) RES: 2% (=) Via @Survation, 29 Sep. Changes w/ 22-23 Sep.