Court is back in session.

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If you’re worried about the incoming $SPCX inclusion, wait until you see how much 401(k) flow $NVDA, $AAPL, and $MSFT are already receiving each month, irrespective of fundamentals, valuation, or even price. For the passive bid, value is simply not a consideration.

This is it. Everything learned spending millions on longevity. From: Your Immortal Unc and Auntie. To: Our Immortal nieces and nephews. 0. Sleep is the world's most powerful drug. 1. Be in your bed for 8 hours 2. Same bedtime every night, any time before midnight 3. Don’t eat right before bed 4. Calm foods for dinner 5. No screens 1 hour before bed 6. Avoid added sugar (be aware it’s in everything) 7. Avoid all things in an American convenience store 8. Avoid fried foods 9. Shoes off at the door 10. Eat whole foods, particularly veggies fruits nuts legumes berries 11. Walk a little after meals or air squats 12. Get your heart rate high routinely 13. Lift heavy things 14. Stretch daily 15. Water pik, floss, brush, tongue scrape, morning and night 16. Make an effort to drink water 17. Get sunlight when you wake up (UV is low) 18. Protect skin in midday sun 19. Stand up straight 20. See at least one friend once a week 21. Avoid plastic where you can (in all things) 22. Circulate air in rooms 23. When stressed, breathe, learn to calm your body 24. Go to the dentist 25. Avoid sitting for long times 26. Protect your hearing, the world is too loud 27. Alcohol is bad for you 28. Finish coffee before noon 29. Avoid bright lights after sunset 30. If obese, look into a GLP 31. Sleep in a cold room 32. Texting while driving is dangerous 33. Turn off all notifications 34. Limit social media use 35. Don’t smoke anything 36. If you struggle to sleep, read a physical book before bed 37. 1 hour before bed have a calm wind down routine: bath, read, light walk, listen to music 38. The body is a clock and loves routine. Have a daily morning and evening schedule. 39. Avoid long distance travel where you can 40. Baby steps first: incorporate new things slowly 41. Do less… most things don’t work. Bonus points if you get your blood checked. Start here, it will change your life.

The entire tax system in South Carolina needs to be rebooted. At a very high level, it is best to understand what is driving SC to have the highest income tax rates of any red state and ever-increasing property and other taxes. All taxes are driven by out-of-control spending. Income tax and sales tax fund state spending, while property taxes mostly fund 81 local school districts and local municipalities. We have a separate policy plan that we have released that explains how we will eliminate the state income tax in 24 to 30 months by attacking the root cause — state spending. This plan addresses property tax. Property tax reform can only be discussed in the context of controlling out-of-control local spending and sales tax reform. Property tax cannot be eliminated completely since the South Carolina constitution requires the state to provide a free public education, for which property tax is the primary revenue source. It is my overall goal as Governor to eliminate the property tax on cars and trucks. It makes no sense that a car or truck is paid off — and sometimes may not have much value — but you pay ever-increasing property tax based on what some unelected bureaucrat believes its value to be. Second, it is my goal to find a path to reduce and freeze residential property taxes for seniors who have been SC residents for at least 10 years, and to then reduce the property tax for all residential properties. Third, I do not believe that future immigrants from other states should receive a homestead exemption on residential property until they have lived in this state for at least five years. Homestead exemptions on residences are subsidized by the state from our taxes — in other words, we are using income tax or sales tax revenue to subsidize homestead breaks for those moving here from other high-tax, usually blue states. How do we achieve all this? First, we will immediately freeze all property tax increases so we can stop the bleeding right away. Second, we will move to eliminate property tax on cars and trucks. Today, sales tax on cars and trucks is capped at $500 — we are the only state that does that. We will maintain that cap on all cars up to a value of $50,000. After that, all cars and trucks will be subject to a nominal 5 percent sales tax. If you buy the average car, you will see no difference in sales tax, but your property tax goes away. If you buy an expensive car, your sales tax is a little higher, but you can build it into your loan or lease and you will not have to write a property tax check every year Next, we will use our forensic audit AI tool developed by DOGESC and go through the spending of every local school district and municipality that receives state funds. In SC, school administrators now exceed teachers. We will establish new targets for administrator-to-student ratios. No more donations to nonprofits. No more expensive contractors, consultants, and expense accounts — or you run the risk of losing state funds. Local funding has doubled in ten years; local school spending went from $11+ billion in 2019 to almost $18 billion. All of this will be peeled back We will also examine the 110 state tax exemptions, many of which are special-interest exemptions. Citizen-friendly exemptions — such as those on groceries and pharmaceuticals — will be kept. Special interest and donor-friendly exemptions will be gone, as I have no donors or special interests. I expect billions in savings from these efforts that will be recycled into property tax relief for the citizens. This is the only way to restructure government: by taking away its money, which will also reduce the power of government. The citizens will be richer and freer. Politicians make promises because they do not know how to fix the problem and provide sustained tax relief. I have restructured and built businesses my whole career. DOGESC prepared me for government, and we will use AI tools developed by DOGESC to start reducing taxes on day one. We will get this done. -Rom Reddy

Massive casinos weren’t built because the people playing were winning. Same premise — but now online, and with insider trading.

Well… oops

One reason the MOVE is subdued is that bonds face two opposing forces. Higher oil prices (Iran war) → inflation risk ↑ → yields ↑ But higher oil also → demand destruction → growth ↓ → unemployment ↑ (potentially) → yields ↓ With inflation and growth impulses offsetting each other, rates currently lack a clear direction which is keeping volatility in check.

Remember the CPI is a one year fixed basket, which by definition ignores demand destruction in categories that rise in price (gasoline) and demand substitution in areas with falling prices. By definition this leads to an overstated CPI vs actual consumption basket that is exacerbated by volatility in prices. Truflation is picking up the deflationary impact of high gasoline prices that bonds (front end) are now also sniffing out.

super-macro.com The US "vibecession" is back, but the hard data tell a completely different story. Consumer expectations just plunged to levels not seen since the "Liberation Day" tariffs, yet real spending growth remains remarkably unshaken. History shows this gap between "soft" sentiment and "hard" reality is a trap for most macro analysts. We’ve seen this movie before (2016 is the perfect example), and the outcome wasn't what the headlines predicted. Is the consumer finally hitting a wall, or is the Expectations Index just crying wolf again? See the full breakdown and the lead indicators we're watching: super-macro.com Subscribe to our Daily Note today - first 30 days are FREE.

💵On our way to providing REAL RELIEF for small businesses in South Carolina. @BrandonNewton7’s bill would exempt the first $10,000 of business personal property taxes, easing the tax burden on families and small businesses and setting up our state for future success! #scpol #schousegop #southcarolina #supportsmallbusiness

Sent to me from a small family farmer- A Thanksgiving Tale: The Perils of a “Free Lunch” Submitted by a Local Farmer Many years ago, on our family farm, we maintained a bustling turkey coop filled with birds we diligently fed each day, fattening them up for the ultimate Thanksgiving feasts. One crisp autumn morning, perched high in a towering sycamore tree beside the coop, we spotted two wild turkeys. They gazed longingly into the enclosure, eyeing their domesticated brethren who were being fed generously—and for free. Intrigued by their apparent envy, we decided to test their resolve. One day, we carefully opened the coop door, standing guard to prevent the captive turkeys from escaping. To our surprise, the wild ones strutted right in without hesitation. We quickly closed the door behind them and began including them in the daily feedings alongside the others. Over the following year, these once-free-range turkeys thrived in their new confines. They seemed content, mingling happily with their feathered friends. However, the easy life took its toll—they grew remarkably obese, far plumper than their wild counterparts could ever hope to become in nature. Yet, they appeared satisfied with the arrangement, never attempting to flee. When Thanksgiving rolled around the next year, we butchered the flock as planned. Those former wild turkeys turned out to be the fattest we’d ever harvested, providing an exceptionally bountiful meal. The moral of this story is clear: There’s no such thing as a free lunch. This simple farmyard anecdote serves as a poignant metaphor for the pitfalls of “democratic socialism,” where the allure of handouts can lead to unintended—and ultimately costly—consequences. Happy Thanksgiving

We're giving away $5M in accounts all week long. Accounting department is pissed. For a chance to win LucidTest and LucidDirect accounts: - Follow @TradingLucid - Like and share this post - Tell AJs mom how proud you are of him Good luck y'all (and sorry accounting).

1/2 It’s an interesting phenomenon that carries important implications. While bonds may be rallying on economic weakness, this can be generated by duration rotation — sell 3m, buy 10s. 3m bond prices stay firm as they are highly liquid with low ~0 duration, 10y rallies in a bull steepener (chart 1). While driven by fears of economic weakness, the net increase in fixed income market value (BND) provides BOTH more collateral to buy assets AND imbalances systematically rebalanced portfolios like Target date funds requiring them to buy equities with incremental inflows tied to employment. This drives valuations higher still as the R2000 sales yield falling highlights. This is well described by Xu Lu in her paper on the portfolio rebalance channel papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… As a result equities rally into the economic weakness in defiance of expectations. Ironically, the most shorted stocks lead the rally (last chart). It’s not insight. It’s mechanical. And it sets up the next stage which is record equity exposure despite bearishness.

Most leaders judge their decisions by outcomes, but this is the wrong way to approach decision-making. A decision can be good, even if the outcome is bad. A common line of thinking: “If something worked, it must have been a good call. If it failed, it must have been a mistake.” This is called “resulting,” or confusing the quality of a decision with the luck of the outcome. Think of a CEO deciding to enter a new market. They might run the numbers, talk to customers, and carefully size the risks. If the expansion fails, it’s tempting to call it a “bad decision.” But that’s outcome bias. The CEO could’ve done everything right and still lost, because chance plays a role. The flip side is also true. Sometimes leaders make hasty, sloppy choices that happen to work out. That doesn’t mean the decision process was good—it just means luck was on their side. The flip side is also true. Sometimes we make sloppy decisions and still win. That doesn’t mean the process was good. It just means we got lucky. So how do you know if you’re actually improving as a decision-maker? · Focus on your process: write down the criteria you used · Imagine a pre-mortem: what could go wrong? · Set exit rules in advance, so you know when to quit You can’t control luck. But you can control the process that stacks the odds in your favor. When you look back on a choice, ask yourself if you decided well, not if it worked out or not. Interested in applying these decision-making principles to your own career? I teach a course on Maven where you’ll learn how to: · Separate decision quality from outcome quality to reduce “resulting” bias · Identify asymmetric opportunities where a few wins outweigh many losses · Build the discipline to quit bad bets early and double down on the right ones The next cohort starts September 16. Get 35% off with this link: bit.ly/4gh1AJK

Just remember. No matter what happens today, 70 million working Americans will still be buying $NVDA every month, whether they realize it or not.

Figured I'd update on @truflation which everyone loved when it was (correctly) suggesting inflation much hotter in 2020-2022. They do not seasonally adjust, and they report actual prices without imputation. Remarkably close to CPI in history, and both exceed 1990s darlings like the "Everyday Pricing Index" (which ran hot in the 1990s). CPI will accelerate in the back half of year as tariffs are having an impact and the fixed basket will not adjust. But Truflation suggesting underlying pressures weak.

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