$ASTS $SPCX Adam Jonas' take on connectivity and compute at the edge aligns with what I think is the most compelling TAM for satellite broadband, even over D2D.
I was a senior leader within Amazon's fulfillment for 7+ years, and speak regularly with senior leaders across transportation, fulfillment, drone, and delivery tech companies. The timing we talk about for industrial-scale middle and last mile autonomous delivery is 3-5 years.
Estimates are 30-50% CAGR over the decade for commercial autonomous systems, and I think that's almost certainly underestimates the scale up phase over the next 5 years.
In last mile alone, there are ~65M parcel deliveries/day and ~12M delivered meals/day. A drone will do ~15-30 deliveries per day on average. E-commerce market share is currently 17% of retail, and delivered meals are 7% of restaurant orders. Drones will be 5-10x cheaper and 3-5x faster than current last mile delivery at scale, so market share will swing to delivery. You can do the device count math.
Enterprises (and gov't) will pay many multiples above consumers per device for the highest reliability, priority, and bandwidth service that terrestrial networks can never service. Many will also require a sovereign solution to protect their data.
You can whine about how long it takes to get more metal in orbit, but a drone-swarmed world is around the corner. The difficulty of execution actually makes the investment more attractive to me. Once you have constellations, it's very difficult to get one-shotted by an upstart.
You can argue about who takes what share of the market. But there are two credible Western players and the market will have an insatiable demand for both differentiated offerings. I think sovereignty will be a deciding factor for most companies, especially those ex-US.
"connectivity is the fabric that turns individual robots and machines into a collective intelligence."